NOT THEN, NOT NOW

October 1, 2009

So, Penn State is not going to play for the national championship this year. For some reason, this comes as a surprise to a bunch of PSU fans. However, it should really surprise no one.

Prior to the season, I predicted a two-loss Nittany Lion squad in 2009. That prognostication was based on the track record of the program, and to be completely honest, I was being optimistic. Let’s re-examine the signs.

I will not try to claim Penn State’s schedule is tougher than it looks. I’ll be honest. It’s embarrassing. We all know the Big Ten is down right now. Looking at past PSU teams, you’ll see Penn State still only has one perfect Big Ten season in their 16 years in the league. Forget the eight-game league schedule, the Lions have only gone 4-0 on the road once in league play. Expecting a team with 12 new starters to go unscathed away from Beaver Stadium is simply unrealistic. Conference games are tough no matter what league you compete in. Just ask USC.

“We don’t rebuild. We reload.” I’ve seen that on t-shirts in State College for years. I refuse to buy one because that is a Penn State myth. In State College, the rebuilding projects aren’t from the ground up, but there is at least a year or two of remodeling that goes on in between runs at national honors.

How many times can you recall Penn State competing for a national championship in consecutive years? The few times it has occurred, the squad returned virtually intact. In fact, the last time PSU won the national championship, there were 15 fifth-year seniors on the team.

Joe Paterno’s philosophy since he arrived at Penn State is that you should be able to compete for the national title every three or four years. For the most part, that trend has survived his entire tenure. PSU went unbeaten in ’68, ’69 and ’73, played for the title in ’78 and won it in ’82 and ’86 The Lions finished ’91 #3, went unbeaten in ’94 and were 9-0 in ’99 when they had their famous collapse. They lost three times in 2002 (twice in OT) and won the Big Ten in 2005 and 2008.

The reason for that timeline is Joe knows that you can’t get the same talent at PSU every year as you can at USC or Texas. I love State College, but it is a small, rural, undiversified town in the middle of nowhere with brutal weather. How many stud athletes are going to choose that over Miami or Los Angeles or Austin? Or for that matter Columbus? The weather may be similar, but it’s a big city. No major sports league is considering putting a franchise in State College.

Can Penn State get elite players? Sure. Can they defeat elite teams? Absolutely. Will they ever get the same talent as those schools? Not a chance. Some schools just have built in advantages and perks that PSU will never have.

On the upside, the 1996 Nittany Lions had lost four starters on the offensive line and both wide receivers to the draft. They ended the regular season 10-2 and went to the Fiesta Bowl. They even lost at home to Iowa, so maybe there’s hope for this season after all.

Games of the Week:

Oklahoma @ Miami – After getting drubbed 31-7 by Va Tech, it’s pretty obvious the Canes return to glory is at least another season away. They are improved. Maybe even enough to reach the BCS, but not the title game. The Sooners had been written off after their week one loss to BYU. Win out, and “Big Game Bob” may get another shot at Florida. With Landry Jones starting at QB for at least another week, the Sooners are vulnerable. I could see this one going either way, but I’ll take the Sooners. Stoops wins big games… that aren’t played in January.

USC @ Cal – What in the world happened to Cal? I knew winning in Autzen Stadium wouldn’t be easy, but I thought the Bears would at least show up. I still believe they win this game. USC continues to struggle to score points, and the Trojans have scored 23, 24 and 17 in their last three meetings with the Bears. Cal can still end up in Pasadena for the first time in 50 years, but only if they win here. I think they do.

LSU @ Georgia – LSU survived a trip to Starkville last week with a goal line stand. Georgia, on the other hand, has survived three straight scares. After struggling to score in Stillwater, the Dawgs offense came alive in two SEC shootout wins. With the Gators looming next week for the Tigers, I’ll take Georgia at home to go to 3-0 in league play.

Upset Alert – South Florida @ Syracuse – I was surprised USF won in Tallahassee. I was even more surprised they won with a back-up QB. It was the biggest win in the program’s history. Now they go on the road to play an improved Syracuse team. The Orange have won two straight and are hungry to show they are not the same Big East doormat. It’s hard to follow up a huge road win like the Bulls had with a road win in conference play. They have been a horrible road team the last few years. I think they’ll have their hands full Saturday.