WHO to watch: Auburn is known for its offense this year, but watch out for DE Antonio Coleman. He led the SEC in sacks with nine and tackles for losses with 15.5. He also played with a wrist injury and was double-teamed constantly.
WHY to watch: New Year’s Day was meant for college football, and this one starts the day.
Why to SKIP it: If you are still nursing a hangover from the previous night’s festivities, this one isn’t worth dragging yourself out of bed.
Analysis: Both teams moved the ball and put up points this season. Auburn’s athleticism on defense will be the difference.
Prediction: Auburn 38Northwestern 23
Capital One Bowl – Friday, January 1 – 1:00pm
#13 PennState (10-2) vs. #12 LSU (9-3)
WHO to watch: PSU DT Jared Odrick was the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year. He won’t wow you with stats like Ndamukong Suh. He just takes up blockers allowing Josh Hull, Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman to make plays at the LB spot.
WHY to watch: Two big time programs that just missed out on a BCS bid. This match-up is one of the best bowl games of the season.
Why to SKIP it: They are dropping the puck on the Winter Classic at FenwayPark at one o’clock.
Analysis: In their losses, PSU has turned the ball over. In most games (win or lose) they have struggled on special teams. The Lions will have to control Trindon Holliday. PennState hasn’t lost back-to-back bowl games since 1975-76. They want a big win. I think they get one.
Prediction: Penn State 17LSU 16
Gator Bowl – Friday, January 1 – 1:00pm
#16 West Virginia (9-3) vs. FloridaState (6-6)
WHO to watch: Mountaineer junior RB Noel Devine is lightning fast. He carried 225 times this season for 1,297 and 12 TDs. The Seminoles are known for their speed. How quick will Devine look in Jacksonville?
WHY to watch: C’mon! It’s Bobby Bowden’s farewell game, and he’s facing his old school.
Why to SKIP it: There’s a reason why permission was needed from the ACC to set this game up. FSU should have been headed somewhere like Charlotte or Boise. They weren’t that good this year.
Analysis: WVU is the better team and had the better year. However, I see this one playing out like Lloyd Carr’s farewell at Michigan when they upset Florida in the Capital One Bowl. FSU will play inspired for Bowden and carry him off the field.
Prediction: FloridaState 28West Virginia 24
Rose Bowl – Friday, January 1 – 4:30pm
#8 OhioState (10-2) vs. #7 Oregon (10-2)
WHO to watch: A lot will be made of the QBs in this game, but the real key player is Oregon RB LaMichael James. He ran for 1,476 yards and 14 TDs, averaging 6.9 yards a carry. If he has a big day, the Ducks roll.
WHY to watch: Sick of watching USC roll a Big Ten team in Pasadena? Me too. Let’s see if the Buckeyes have better luck with the Ducks.
Why to SKIP it: It will prove the Big Ten can beat teams other than USC here, but that monkey will remain on the Big Ten’s back.
Analysis: People seem to forget who close OSU came to beating Texas last year in the Fiesta Bowl. Tressel and company are sick of hearing how they can’t win the big one. They’ve been on big stages before. I think they come up big behind their defense.
Prediction: OhioState 23Oregon 21
Sugar Bowl – Friday, January 1 – 8:30pm
#3 Cincinnati (12-0) vs. #5 Florida (12-1)
WHO to watch: Tim Tebow is playing his final college game. Entering his senior season, he had a chance to go down in history as the most successful college QB ever. Things didn’t turn out as he had hoped, but I’m sure he wants to go out a winner.
WHY to watch: Last year, Alabama didn’t want to be here and it showed early versus Utah. You know Tebow won’t take this game for granted, so this will be a legit test to see how Cincy measures up.
Why to SKIP it: Ifyou are as sick of Saint Timothy as most of the south is, you may want to skip this tribute by Fox to his career.
Analysis: Love him or hate him, you have to respect Tim Tebow. There’s no way that kid goes out with back-to-back losses. Cincy will give them a test, but the Gator D was embarrassed by Alabama. They’ll play this one intense from start to finish for their leader.
Armed Forces Bowl – Thursday, December 31 – 12:00pm
Houston (10-3) vs. Air Force (7-5)
WHO to watch: Houston QB Case Keenum put up video game like numbers this year.He threw for 5,449 yards while completing 71% of his passes. He also threw for 43 TDs and a mere nine INTs in 659 attempts.
WHY to watch: Talk about a contrast in styles. It’s the triple-option attack of Air Force versus the spread offense of the Cougars.
Why to SKIP it: I’ve already seen Andre Ware and David Klingler play.
Analysis: This was the same match-up last year, won by Houston 34-28. If they fall behind, they are better equipped to come back. Air Force will move the ball, but the Cougars will have too much.
Prediction: Houston 40Air Force31
Sun Bowl – Thursday, December 31 – 2:00pm
#21 Stanford (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (7-5)
WHO to watch: Hesiman runner-up Toby Gerhart led the nation in rushing with 1,736 yards. The workhorse also tallied 26 TDs. He had 27 or more carries in five of the Cardinal’s last six games.
WHY to watch: It’s HAS to be better than last year’s 3-0 Sun Bowl!
Why to SKIP it: It’s bad enough that Sam Bradford will not play. Now Stanford QB Andrew Luck will also miss the game with a finger injury.
Analysis: Without Luck at QB, Gerhart will have to really shoulder the load. The problem is that OU has the seventh best run defense in the nation. Both teams will play with their back-up QB, but Landry Jones has been playing all year. That’s the difference.
Prediction: Oklahoma 24Stanford 14
Texas Bowl – Thursday, December 31 – 3:30pm
Navy (9-4) vs. Missouri (8-4)
WHO to watch: Navy QB Ricky Dobbs broke Tim Tebow’s record for rushing TDs by a QB in a single season with 24. He makes the Navy triple-option go but is playing with a cracked kneecap.
WHY to watch: Navy always plays well in bowl games.
Why to SKIP it: If you want to see what this offensive style can do with great athletes running it and not service academies… wait for Georgia Tech’s offense to take the field in the Orange Bowl.
Analysis: Dobbs isn’t 100%. Mizzou has a strong rushing defense. The Tiger passing attack should pick the Middies apart.
Prediction: Missouri 35Navy 16
Insight Bowl – Thursday, December 31 – 6:00pm
Minnesota (6-6) vs. IowaState (6-6)
WHO to watch: IowaState LB Jesse Smith was a first-team all-league pick after leading the conference in tackles.
WHY to watch: If you have fond memories of Fiesta Bowls past, check this one out. It’s played at the Fiesta’s old site, Sun Devil Stadium.
Why to SKIP it: Neither team even went .500 in the respective league. When people say too many teams make bowl games, they are referring to match-ups like this.
Analysis: The Cyclones haven’t made a bowl game since 2005. In fact, a year ago they lost ten games. The Gophers, on the other hand, are playing in their third Insight Bowl in four years. In a toss-up like this, I’ll take the experienced bowl team.
Prediction: Minnesota 28IowaState 20
Chick-Fil-A Bowl – Thursday, December 31 – 7:30pm
#11 Virginia Tech (9-3) vs. Tennessee (7-5)
WHO to watch: Vols safety Eric Berry is a future top ten NFL pick (maybe #1 pick overall). He’s that good. He won the Jim Thorpe Award as the nation’s top defensive back. Berry had 83 tackles with 2 INTs and 2 fumble recoveries. His 14 career picks has him third among active NCAA players.
WHY to watch: The Vols hung with Florida, scared Bama and got routed by Ole Miss. Can they beat a good Va Tech team to get a real quality win?
Why to SKIP it: When Lane Kiffin does something more significant than run his mouth, call me!
Analysis: The Vols played inspired ball this year, but it’s obvious they don’t have the horses… yet. The Hokies are strong on defense and special teams which usually means UT will have problems.
WHO to watch: Keep an eye on A&M LB/DE Von Miller. He led the nation with 17 sacks this year. The Bulldogs have been superb at protecting QB Joe Cox. Something’s gotta give.
WHY to watch: College football at dinner time? Sounds good to me.
Why to SKIP it: You may want to save your dinner time football for the 31st or so. Besides, Favre plays in Soldier Field tonight.
Analysis: A&M was only 3-5 in a down Big 12. Georgia is the more battle tested team. This one could be a shootout.
Prediction: Georgia38Texas A&M27
EagleBank Bowl – Tuesday, December 29 – 4:30pm
UCLA (6-6) vs. Temple (9-3)
WHO to watch: UCLA DT Brian Price was the Pac 10 Defensive Player of the Year finishing with 22.5 tackles for losses. A MAC team like Temple will likely have trouble handling him.
WHY to watch: Temple hasn’t played in a bowl game since 1979. In case it takes another 30 years to get back, don’t miss this historic contest for the Owls.
Why to SKIP it: It’s TEMPLE for crying out loud!
Analysis: After missing a bowl game last year, the Bruins are using this game to build the program back up. They did lose five straight in the middle of the year, but they just have too much athleticism on defense for the Owls.
Prediction: UCLA 23Temple 13
Champs Sports Bowl – Tuesday, December 29 – 8:00pm
#15 Miami (9-3) vs. #25 Wisconsin (9-3)
WHO to watch: Badger RB John Clay was the Big 10 Offensive Player of the Year. He ran for 1,396 yards and 16 TDs. If Wisconsin has any chance here, Clay needs to have a big day.
WHY to watch: Two good programs, both going for 10 wins. Clay and Jacory Harris are worth watching alone.
Why to SKIP it: Didn’t we see this game last December when FSU whooped the Badgers here 42-13?
Analysis: I’m going with defense here… as in Wisconsin has none. Only Hawaii, Wofford and Purdue failed to score 20 points on the Badgers. Miami has better skill people than anyone they’ve seen all year. Clay will get yards, but unless the Canes offense is extremely generous with turnovers, Miami wins.
Prediction: Miami 27Wisconsin 21
Humanitarian Bowl – Wednesday, December 30 – 4:30pm
Bowling Green (7-5) vs. Idaho (7-5)
WHO to watch: Bowling Green WR Freddie Barnes caught 138 passes this season. He needs four in this game to tie the NCAA single season record.
WHY to watch: It’s got the smurf turf of Boise.
Why to SKIP it: I doubt you need a reason, but it’s a 7-5 MAC team versus a 7-5 WAC team.
Analysis: BG won its last four. Idaho lost its last three. However, this bowl game is in Idaho. I can’t imagine too many Falcon fans wanting to spend time in late December in Idaho when they could be jumping on the Bearcat or Buckeye bandwagons and heading to New Orleans or Pasadena. On the strength of home cooking alone, I should take the Vandals, but I think Barnes is going to blow up.
Prediction: Bowling Green 42Idaho 24
Holiday Bowl – Wednesday, December 30 – 4:30pm
#20 Arizona (8-4) vs. #22 Nebraska (9-4)
WHO to watch: A DT can be amazing and accumulate no stats because it’s his job to accumulate blockers. Unless you are Huskers DT Ndamukong Suh. He finished the year with 82 tackles, 12 sacks, 1 INT, broke up 10 passes and blocked three kicks. If you saw the Big 12 Title game, you know he was the best player on the field.
WHY to watch: That boy named Suh.
Why to SKIP it: The Pac 10 isn’t exactly setting the world afire this bowl season.
Analysis: As amazing as Suh is, the Husker offense is awful. Zona is the more complete team. Suh will make some great plays, but the better team wins in the end.
Little Caesars Bowl – Saturday, December 26 – 1:00pm
Marshall (6-6) vs. Ohio (8-4)
WHO to watch: Marshall RB Darius Marshall missed the last two games with an ankle injury, but he still finished the year with 1,054 yards and 11 TDs. Ohio has struggled against the run. The Thundering Herd will look to exploit that.
WHY to watch: You are already sick of dealing with relatives.
Why to SKIP it: Watch the movie “We Are Marshall.” It’s much more entertaining than this will be.
Analysis: Marshall interim coach Rick Minter faces former Nebraska head man Frank Solich. I like the steady Bobcats over inconsistent Marshall.
Prediction: Ohio21Marshall 14
Meineke Car Care Bowl – Saturday, December 26 – 4:30pm
#17 Pittsburgh (9-3) vs. North Carolina (8-4)
WHO to watch: Pitt freshman RB Dion Lewis is fantastic! This year he carried the ball 297 times for 1,640 yards and 16 TDs. Against Cincinnati he was unstoppable, going for 194 yards on an amazing 47 carries.
WHY to watch: Dion Lewis is worth checking out on any Saturday afternoon.
Why to SKIP it: If you are a Pittsburgh fan, you may want to save your TV time for the Steelers-Ravens game Sunday at 1pm.
Analysis: Butch Davis certainly made UNC relevant in a hurry. The Panthers lost 3 games by a total of 7 points. Pitt can win 10 games for the first time since the Dan Marino days. Are they focused after falling one point short of the BCS? That disappointment and the home game for the Heels has me leaning UNC.
Prediction: North Carolina 30Pitt 28
Emerald Bowl – Saturday, December 26 – 8:00pm
#24 USC (8-4) vs. BostonCollege (8-4)
WHO to watch: USC QB Matt Barkley was very impressive early. However, from Halloween on, he threw more picks than TDs and lost three of five. He’s much younger than his predecessors were when they took the job, but he needs to rebound.
WHY to watch: USC in a bowl game is usually money. Will they be as amped to play in a non-BCS bowl?
Why to SKIP it: The Pac 10 is stinking up the bowl season so far thanks to Cal and OregonState. How much would a win here really mean for USC or the conference?
Analysis: Motivated or not, it’s USC and Pete Carroll with a month to prepare for a game in California. That’s enough for me.
Prediction: USC 35Boston College 10
MusicCity Bowl – Sunday, December 27 – 8:30pm
Kentucky (7-5) vs. Clemson (8-5)
WHO to watch: Clemson’s do-everything RB C.J. Spiller really does do everything. He ran the ball for 1,145 yards. He caught the ball for 445 yards and returned five kicks for scores.
WHY to watch: Did Spiller deserve more consideration for the Heisman? You tell me.
Why to SKIP it: Every year the SEC-ACC put two teams in the Georgia Dome to open the year. If it was this match-up, I’d skip it, and that’s when it means something. This one doesn’t.
Analysis: This one is hard to pick. Clemson just missed out on the Orange Bowl. Kentucky practically lives in the MusicCity in December. The power of the SEC is tempting, but Spiller wears orange. That’s enough for me.
For those of you who did not hear my announcement on the Happy Hour, I voted for Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh for the Heisman Trophy. Suh was the most dominant DT I have seen in a long time, and his performance in the Big 12 Title Game was one for the ages. Mark Ingram of Alabama was third on my ballot with Toby Gerhart of Stanford second.
Neither Tim Tebow nor Colt McCoy (my top two picks last year) made it on my ballot. Tebow did absolutely nothing spectacular this season, unless you count not dying from that hit in the Kentucky game. As for McCoy, his two biggest games (the Oklahoma game and the Big 12 Title Game) were his two worst. I didn’t take anything into account that occurred prior to September 3 of this year. The Heisman Trophy is NOT a lifetime achievement award.
Ingram never wowed me all year. Bama won with defense all year. You can argue that Ingram wasn’t even the best player on Alabama. He did carry the offense in the middle of the season. However, Toby Gerhart was the more consistent player.
I know. I know. “But, Ingram ran against the SEC. Gerhart plays in the Pac 10 where they play no defense.” Check the stats. In rushing yards per game and yards per carry, the Pac 10 stacked up very well versus the SEC. In a conference that also had Joe McKnight of USC, Jacquizz Rodgers of OregonState, Jahvid Best of Cal and LaMichael James of Oregon, Gerhart blew them all away.
Name one other big time RB in the SEC. In fact, name a great offense in the SEC. In my opinion, Ingram won based on the reputation of the SEC. The Pac 10 was the second best conference in America in 2009. The gap between one and two isn’t as big as SEC fans would have you believe.
Now, as for expanding the Big Ten… here are my thoughts on some of the potential candidates.
Notre Dame -Let’s not even waste time talking about this. It’s NOT going to happen.
Pitt – The Big Ten already has the Pittsburgh market thanks to PSU. All you do by bringing in Pitt is elevate their stature, which hurts PennState.
Syracuse – This one makes even less sense to me. Unless the Big Ten Network would really benefit from adding the Ithaca and Utica markets… NEXT!
West Virginia – Good fan base and very competitive teams. However, this market does nothing for the league either. Plus, it really doesn’t fit academically.
Nebraska – This one is an intriguing idea. The market isn’t that attractive, but the splash from adding them would be the next best thing knowing that the Irish aren’t interested. Would they really leave the Big 12? I doubt it.
Missouri – If the Big 11 decides to go west, I think this is your 12th team. It gets you deeper into St. Louis, and they are attractive from a competition standpoint.
Rutgers – The Scarlet Knights are actually a great fit if they want to go east. They have history (as a school), enrollment and academics to fit. Plus, the combo of PSU and RU in the league may be enough to get the Big Ten Network on in New York City.
The rest of the nation would laugh at this addition, but the league would laugh all the way to the bank.
Basically, if they go east, it’s Rutgers. If they go west, it’s Missouri. I’ve heard some rumblings of maybe trying to go to 14 teams. In that case, Nebraska may be interested if Mizzou is going too. Then you add Rutgers, Missouri and Nebraska. Leaving the Big 8 plus four, minus two as the new Big 10!
Bowl Games this week:
New Mexico Bowl – Saturday, December 19 – 4:30pm
Wyoming (6-6) vs. FresnoState (8-4)
WHO to watch: Bulldog RB Ryan Matthews led the nation in rushing yards per game with 151.2 in eleven games. In total, he carried for 1,664 yards, or almost 200 yards more than his first two seasons combined. Oh yeah, and he’s only a junior.
WHY to watch: It’s the first bowl game of the year!
Why to SKIP it: FresnoState played in this game last year against a better opponent. Albuquerque isn’t exactly a place for great college football. They won’t be that excited to be there. Would you?
Analysis: I whiffed on this one last year when I took FSU. They are potent on offense. Wyoming is not ranking 112th in total offense and 94th in scoring offense. The Cowboys play like their NFL namesake in December.
Prediction: FresnoState 30Wyoming 15
St. Petersburg Bowl – Saturday, December 19 – 8:00pm
Central Florida (8-4) vs. Rutgers (8-4)
WHO to watch: Scarlet Knights QB Tom Savage is the future of the program. As a freshman, he threw 12 TD passes and 6 INTs. Although, five of those picks came in the last four games. This will be a virtual road game for RU. Let’s see how the kid handles it.
WHY to watch: Rutgers has been putting up billboards in Florida t attract potential recruits. Will that ad campaign take off like the Bud Frogs or blow up like Reebok’s Dan and Dave spots?
Why to SKIP it: The undefeated Saints are playing the Cowboys right now!
Analysis: I like UCF in an upset. They’re games with Texas and Miami are better than any two games RU played this season.
Prediction: Central Florida 21Rutgers 20
New Orleans Bowl – Sunday, December 20 – 8:30pm
Southern Miss (7-5) vs. Middle Tennessee (9-3)
WHO to watch: MTU QB Dwight Dasher is averaging almost 300 total yards per game in the Blue Raiders spread offense.
WHY to watch: Both teams can score averaging 33 and 31 points per game. If you like defense, MTU can do that too. They led the nation in tackles for loss per game at 8.33.
Why to SKIP it: After a long day of NFL action, ending with this would be rather anti-climactic.
Analysis: The Eagles can within a feather of playing for the Conference USA title. MTU will put up a fight, but USM has been there before. In fact, they won this game last season. They take it again Sunday night.
Prediction: Southern Miss 28Middle Tennessee 23
Las Vegas Bowl – Tuesday, December 22 – 8pm
#14 BYU (10-2) vs. #18 OregonState (8-4)
WHO to watch: The Rodgers brothers of OSU are worth the price of admission. Sophomore RB Jacquizz was first team all Pac 10 with 1,377 yards and a school record 20 TDs. His older brother James is a junior WR that caught 87 passes for 1,007 yards and nine more TDs.
WHY to watch: It’s the first match-up of ranked teams this bowl season.
Why to SKIP it: I don’t think there’s ever been two groups less enthusiastic to come to Vegas. BYU is playing in their fifth straight Las Vegas Bowl. OregonState comes in after falling one game short of the Rose Bowl for the second year in a row.
Analysis: Neither Rodgers brother played in last year’s Sun Bowl win over Pitt. It showed in the 3-0 final score. The Beavers will have too much for the Cougars in a close one. I’ll admit that I could totally see an uninterested Beavers team digging too big of a hole. I think the Pac 10 starts to show its strength.
Prediction: OregonState 26BYU 14
Poinsettia Bowl – Wednesday, December 23 – 8:00pm
#23 Utah (9-3) vs. California (8-4)
WHO to watch: Cal sophomore RB Shane Vereen has played pretty well in place of Jahvid Best. Best will not play due to injury. In the three previous games that Vereen as filled in, he’s totaled 444 yards and four TDs.
WHY to watch: For the 2nd night in a row, the Pac 10 faces the MWC. The Utes have two BCS wins in the last five seasons. Can they topple the Bears for their ninth straight bowl win?
Why to SKIP it: No Jahvid Best.
Analysis: If Cal was 100% (i.e. Best was healthy), I’d take the Bears. Without him, they finished the season with a four TD loss to Washington. The Utes are still looking for respect for their program and conference. I think they earn more for both Wednesday.
Prediction: Utah 28Cal 21
Hawaii Bowl – Thursday, December 24 – 8:00pm
Nevada (8-4) vs. SMU (7-5)
WHO to watch: Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick threw for 1,85 yards this season and ran for 1,160 while accounting for 35 TDs.
WHY to watch: Two years after taking Hawaii to the Sugar Bowl, June Jones returns to the islands as coach of SMU.
Why to SKIP it: Santa’s coming. Get to bed already!
Analysis:Nevada started 0-3. Their four losses are to Notre Dame, Colorado State, Missouri and BoiseState. SMU played a bunch of close games this year, losing half. I’ll take the Wolfpack over a Mustang team that’s happy to make their first bowl game since receiving the death penalty.
