STATE OF LEHIGH FOOTBALL

November 24, 2009

Why should he stay? In four seasons, he’s lost 24 games. The program lost 25 games in the previous nine seasons combined. He should stay because the landscape of FCS (1-AA) football has changed, and it’s about to change again.

There is no question that the Lehigh football program had a disappointing season. In a year when they had seven home games, they finished 4-7 (with only two wins at Goodman Stadium). Head Coach Andy Coen will be the first to tell you he never saw the season unfolding the way it did.

Some long time fans want to compare what he has done (or hasn’t done) as coach to Kevin Higgins and Pete Lembo. There in lies the mistake. You can’t. Things are different now.

In the previous era, a kid that didn’t receive a scholarship to an Atlantic 10 school (now called the CAA), could turn to the Patriot League for a few reasons. You had a chance at a need based scholarship, and you would have a chance to play for a national championship. However, the Northeast Conference, once an easy home W on a Patriot League schedule began offering athletic scholarships. Plus, as of next season, they’ll receive an automatic bid into the expanded FCS Playoffs.

This has changed Patriot League football. They are not getting the same athletes and play makers they once did. There is a chance to turn the tide again. The presidents of the league are considering the idea of athletic scholarships for football. Other sports like basketball have been giving athletic scholarships for a while and look what it has done. The Patriot League went from being the lowest rated conference in Division 1 basketball to winning games in the NCAA Tournament. They even had the league runner-up in the NIT a few years back.

Have I agreed with all of Andy Coen’s decisions? No. I felt he should have let QB JB Clark work through his early season struggles this year. He was dealing with a new offensive line and an entire new set of wide outs. Coen benched him after three games. He would give him the job back a few weeks later, and Clark played better and better down the stretch.

I haven’t agreed with all his in game moves either. I still think he should have kicked the 31 yard field goal against Princeton, down 10 in the middle of the fourth quarter. He went for the first down. He didn’t get it. Lehigh lost 17-14.

Andy Coen deserves to keep his job because as bad as things looked at times this year, Lehigh was 60 seconds away from the playoffs. One more stop against Dominic Randolph of Holy Cross and Lehigh would have won the league title and automatic bid. When that didn’t happen, his team could have seen the 2-7 record behind their name and mailed in game #10. It was basically a meaningless road game, with Lafayette looming a week later. When they played poorly for a stretch and lost the lead, a packed house at Goodman Stadium seven days later could have been in their mind. Instead, Lehigh fought for 60 minutes and got the win.

That game showed me that Andy Coen and his staff still had that locker room. With 16-17 starters back next year, there is promise for bigger and better things. I hope people can see Coen for what he is. He is a great guy and great family man… no question. He’s also 15-9 in the Patriot League. He has two fewer wins than Kevin Higgins did after four years at Lehigh. I look forward to seeing what he can do in 2010. I know he does too.

My bowl projections…

BCS Title Game – Florida vs. Texas

Rose Bowl – Ohio State vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs. Cincinnati

Fiesta Bowl – Penn State vs. Boise State

Orange Bowl – TCU vs. Georgia Tech

Capital One Bowl – Iowa vs. Mississippi

Outback Bowl – Wisconsin vs. Arkansas

Cotton Bowl – LSU vs. Oklahoma

Gator Bowl – Pitt vs. Miami

Games of the Week:

Alabama @ Auburn – Take a break from your holiday shopping and settle in for the Iron Bowl. The Tide offense which has struggled at times faces a Tiger D that is giving up more points than any team in the SEC. However, Auburn’s new high powered offense will be a good test for Bama. Expect a big day from Tide RB Mark Ingram. This one won’t be easy, but Alabama remains perfect… setting up THE game next week with the Gators.

Pitt @ West Virginia –Time for the Backyard Brawl. The last time these two met in Morgantown, the Panthers resurrected their program and knocked the Mountaineers out of the national title game with a 13-9 win. No matter what happens in this game, the Pitt-Cincy game next week will be for the BCS bid. That means this one is for pride (and potentially the Gator Bowl should Cincy win out). WVU has beaten no one of consequence this season. I’ll take the Panthers to make it three in a row in this rivalry.

Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma – The entire state of Idaho will be watching this one. A Sooner win ups the likelihood of Boise State receiving a BCS bid. The Cowboys have only won 17 of the 103 meetings in the series. OSU QB Zac Robinson should play after missing last week’s 31-28 win over Colorado. The Sooners have been ravaged with injuries all year leading to a 6-5 record. That matches the most losses OU has had since Bob Stoops took over. I think big brother wins a 12-round fight. The potato state can rest easier for the next week.

BCS 101

November 19, 2009

We all know that the top two teams in the BCS Standings on Sunday, December 6^th will play in Pasadena this January for the crystal football. But, how are the other BCS match-ups decided? Well, grab a pen and paper and take notes. School is in session. Here are the ABCs of the BCS.

To better follow along, let’s assume for now that the higher ranked teams win the remainder of their games. In other words, Florida beats Alabama and Texas, Cincy, TCU and Boise State all finish undefeated.

Of the six BCS conferences, five send their champ to a specific BCS bowl, unless they are ranked 1 or 2. We all know by now that the Big Ten and Pac 10 champs meet in the Rose Bowl, so that would mean a January 1 game between Ohio State and Oregon. That leaves the Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. The ACC Champ (Georgia Tech we’ll say) heads to the Orange Bowl. The SEC champ plays in the Sugar Bowl, and the Big 12 champ goes to the Fiesta.

The Big East champ is not tied to any one specific bowl. Why? Mostly because no BCS bowl wants to be stuck with that team every year. It has more to do with the fans than the level of play in that league. There aren’t enough of them. Of the eight Big East competitors for football, two (UConn and South Florida) have only been 1-A or FBS level for a decade or so. Another, Rutgers, has been a non-factor on the national scene. Throw in Cincinnati and Louisville, who if you combined their stadiums would still have a smaller capacity than half of the SEC, and there just isn’t enough interest in these teams to make them attractive bowl selections.

Besides those six league champs, anyone else ranked in the top 14 of the BCS standings can be selected to play in the BCS. If a team from a non-BCS league finishes in the top 12, they receive an automatic bid. However, if more than one non-BCS school cracks the top 12, the highest rated team gets an automatic bid, the rest are simply eligible for selection. In other words, TCU would be in. Boise State would have to be chosen.

If a team from a BCS conference does not win the conference title, but is still ranked in the top 4 in the final BCS standings, they also receive an automatic bid. That will likely happen to the loser of the SEC Championship Game. That brings our qualifiers to eight (Florida, Texas, Bama, Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia Tech, Cincinnati and TCU).

Since the SEC and Big 12 champs would be in the title game, the Sugar and Fiesta Bowls pick replacement teams before any other BCS invites are made. If everything stays the same, Florida would be #1, so the Sugar Bowl would pick first. If they wanted to select a Big 12 team (Oklahoma State for example), they’d need the permission of the Fiesta Bowl since they lost the Big 12 champ. That’s one of the reasons why USC played Illinois in the 2008 Rose Bowl and not Georgia. The Rose Bowl needed the Sugar’s blessing to take an SEC team.

It’s assumed that the Sugar Bowl will once again take the SEC runner-up. Although, there is a small chance they’d pass on having Bama two years in a row.

At that point, the Fiesta Bowl selects a replacement for Texas. Many experts believe that will be Penn State, provided they win Saturday at Michigan State. Why PSU? Why not Iowa? They beat the Lions in Happy Valley. Remember, once the title game is set, what bowls want are teams that will sell tickets, preferably to fans that will be in town for days dropping lots of money. They also want teams that will draw eyes to the TV. Who played a tougher schedule or who beat who is irrelevant. This isn’t March Madness.

Now that the replacement picks have been made, the remaining three slots are filled by each bowl taking turns. First up is the game played closest to the date of the title game. This year that is the Orange. Then, the game 2^nd closest in date to the final. That is the Fiesta. The Sugar Bowl would pick last. With that order in mind, here are the projected choices (and a few other bowls). Any questions?

BCS Title Game – Florida vs. Texas

Rose Bowl – Ohio State vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs. Cincinnati

Fiesta Bowl – Penn State vs. Boise State

Orange Bowl – TCU vs. Georgia Tech

Capital One Bowl – Iowa vs. LSU

Outback Bowl – Wisconsin vs. Mississippi

Cotton Bowl – Georgia vs. Oklahoma

Gator Bowl – Notre Dame vs. Miami

Games of the Week:

Oregon @ Arizona – In case you haven’t noticed, both teams still control their own destiny for the Rose Bowl. The Ducks have scored 40 or more points in four straight games and six times this season. The last time these two met in Tucson, the Ducks lost their #2 ranking, their shot at the national title, and QB Dennis Dixon lost his shot at the Heisman when he blew out his knee. I don’t think the Cats can keep up the pace. Oregon takes another step toward Pasadena.

Cal @ Stanford – Dust off the highlight reel of the ’82 game and cue the band. This year’s version of the Big Game I earmarked in August as a BCS implication game. I’ll admit I thought it would be Cal with BCS dreams. The Cardinal are rolling. The entire Pac 10 and most of college football smiled wide last week as they thumped USC and kicked them while they were down. Jim Harbaugh’s team won the last meeting in Palo Alto. I think he gets another this Saturday.

Penn State @ Michigan State – Trust me when I say this one has the makings of a very entertaining contest. For some reason, since PSU joined the Big Ten, this match-up has consistently been a shootout. Only twice in 16 meetings has the winner failed to score at least 31 points. The Spartans D has been great at times, but they have yet to be a good team. I think the Lions gut one out Saturday for their 10^th win.

Upset Alert – Connecticut @ Notre Dame – With the exception of wins over Nevada and Washington State, the Irish have been taken to the wire or lost the other eight games they’ve played. The Huskies have lost five games by a total of 15 points. After all they have been through, UConn is looking for one crowning victory after the tragic death of their teammate. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for the Irish. Does Jimmy Clausen have more 4^th quarter magic left in him? I think that’s what it will take.

THE DIFFERENCE IN ONE LETER

November 11, 2009

One letter of the alphabet can make a very big difference. When you are talking college football, the difference in OSU and PSU is large.

They are both state institutions. In fact, they are each THE state institution of their respective commonwealths. (Although, only one makes a point of saying that.) Both have rich football traditions. However, as similar as PSU and OSU seem to be, the difference on the field is much wider than Penn State fans would like to admit.

On Saturday, the Nittany Lions were limited to nine first downs and 201 yards of total offense in a 24-7 defeat at Beaver Stadium. Anyone who watched the game could see the Penn State offensive line was simply overmatched by the Buckeyes front four.

By taking a look back at the previous ten meetings, we can see how one-sided this “rivalry” has been. Ohio State won seven of the last ten meetings. In those games, PSU has been held under 20 points eight times. The anomaly game this decade was the 29-27 victory in 2001 that moved Joe Paterno ahead of Bear Bryant on the all-time wins list. Remove that one game, when the PSU offense exploded for three touchdowns in ten minutes, and the Lions managed two offensive TDs one other time in nine games. That came in 2005 in a 17-10 win. The second TD in that game came on a two-yard drive following an interception.

In other words, when the PSU defense is up to the task and smothers OSU, the Lions are in the game and have a chance to win. When they don’t, the Lions lose games by scores of 44-6, 37-17 or 24-7.

I’ve heard some fans blame the coaches, saying the talent levels are the same, so it comes down to play calling and coaching. Hogwash. Penn State has talented players, but the depth of talent at OSU is no match for PSU.

In the last ten NFL drafts, OSU has had 16 players selected in the 1^st round and 69 taken overall. In the same span, Penn State has had nine 1^st rounders (four in one year after the team went 9-4) and 38 in total.

Ohio State churns out NFL talent on both sides of the ball every year. The Lions have had only three offensive players selected in the first round this decade and one in the last six drafts (OT Levi Brown).

When was the last time a Penn State defensive back was a first or second round draft pick? The answer is 2003 when Bryan Scott went in the second round. In that same time, the Buckeyes have had six.

It’s time for Penn State fans to realize that Ohio State competes on a different level. It wasn’t poor game-planning. It wasn’t a lack of enthusiasm. It wasn’t lack of a special teams coach (even though I agree PSU should have one). The better team, the deeper team, the more talented team won again.

As for my bowl projections…

BCS Title Game – Florida vs. Texas

Rose Bowl – Ohio State vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs. Cincinnati

Fiesta Bowl – USC vs. TCU

Orange Bowl – Boise State vs. Georgia Tech

Capital One Bowl – Penn State vs. LSU

Outback Bowl – Iowa vs. Mississippi

Cotton Bowl – Georgia vs. Oklahoma

Gator Bowl – Notre Dame vs. Miami

Games of the Week:

Iowa @ Ohio State – Iowa’s high wire act finally caught up with them last week. QB Ricky Stanzi is out after surgery on his injured ankle. He may return to play in the bowl game. The way the Buckeyes are clicking, that bowl game will not be in Pasadena. OSU has a chance to go to the Rose Bowl for the first time since January of 1997. Yes, it’s been that long. Pryor is limiting mistakes, and the defense is dominating. The Buckeyes roll to another Big Ten title.

Notre Dame @ Pitt – This one was a lot more important before Navy stunned the Irish. Now, that hot seat that Charlie Weis has been on and off will be cranked up to high with another loss. The Panthers let one get away at NC State, but they have looked great ever since. Notre Dame’s track record has been to beat bad teams and struggle with good ones. ND has better skill people, but Pitt is the better team. The Panthers put another nail in the arrogant one’s coffin.

West Virginia @ Cincinnati – This game will be played Friday night. Cincy QB Tony Pike is still out, but the offense has been rolling under Zach Collaros. The Bearcats still have dreams of Pasadena, but they will need even more help than they realize to get there. The Mountaineers have been forgotten about by many. They can still claim the league crown with a win here and on Black Friday when they host Pitt. Expect a lot of points… and another Bearcat victory. Right now they have the better program, and they are at home.

Upset Alert – Tennessee @ Mississippi – For all the talk of Ole Miss being a contender in the SEC this year, that idea was finished by early October. The Rebels have lost to anyone they’ve played that has talent. Arkansas can score, but can’t play defense. Lane and Monte Kiffin have the Vols in a groove. They’ve won three of four with their lone loss being Bama. Look for the Vols to continue to improve and get their first road win of the year.

TIME TO STEP UP

November 5, 2009

The regular season is in the home stretch. Goals have changed for some teams. A month ago, Michigan was 4-0 and looked at as a threat in the Big Ten. Now, they are fighting to just be bowl eligible. Two individuals (one a player, one a coach) have games this Saturday that will show me exactly who they are.

In August, Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor was announced as the Big Ten Pre-season Offensive Player of the Year. I found that odd. Pryor certainly came in to OSU with a lot of hype. He was named the starter after a few short weeks in his freshman year. He may end up being a great QB. However, a pre-season award like that is normally presented to the most accomplished returning player. Not even the most ardent Buckeye supporter would claim that description fit the sophomore from Jeannette, PA.

Now, nine games into the season, Pryor has the chance to show Big Ten fans why he deserved that honor. He has played well at times against over-matched teams, but he has yet to earn a signature win. Saturday afternoon he’ll have an opportunity to keep the Buckeyes in the hunt for the Rose Bowl when they visit his home state to face the Nittany Lions.

Will Pryor display the talent that made him the most sought after recruit in the country in 2007? Or will the Penn State defense contain him as they did last year?

While Pryor tries to live up to the hype, a head coach that may be headed for the College Football Hall of Fame has some stepping up to do himself Saturday.

Pete Carroll has shown time and again that he is a great recruiter and the best big game coach of my lifetime. Last year, I dubbed his team the USC “Red Light” Trojans, because when that red light comes on, no one is better. The problem has been staying focused for an entire regular season. They’ve lost games as heavy favorites each of the last four years.

Due to the 47-20 shellacking the Oregon Ducks laid on them last week, USC is all but eliminated from contention for the Rose Bowl. They either need Oregon to end up in the BCS Championship game (leaving the Rose Bowl Committee the chance to snag them from the pool of at-large teams as a replacement), or have the Ducks lose not once, not twice, but three times.

With the exception of 2001 (Carroll’s first year at USC), the Trojans have never played a regular season game where they had no shot at the national title, the Rose Bowl or at least a share of the Pac 10 crown. That is until now. USC has four games left this season. It’s time to see how good a motivator Pete Carroll is.

On a separate note… if the season ended today, the BCS games would be…

Rose Bowl – Iowa vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs. Cincinnati

Fiesta Bowl – USC vs. TCU

Orange Bowl – Penn State vs. Georgia Tech

BCS Final – Florida vs. Texas

Games of the Week:

LSU @ Alabama – The two meetings since Nick Saban took the Bama job have been classics. Last year, the Tide stayed perfect with a 27-21 OT win in Baton Rouge. If Bama wins, the SEC Title Game rematch is officially set. Both teams have struggled to move the ball through the air. Bama is at home, and they have Mark Ingram. That’s enough for me.

Ohio State @ Penn State – Unlike PSU, the Buckeyes still control their own destiny for the Rose Bowl. Last time these two met in Beaver Stadium, OSU Todd Boeckman came out throwing and lit up the Lions for 253 yards and 3 TDs. I don’t see Pryor coming to life in that way. He has started to tuck it and run more the last few weeks. Last year, PSU dared him to win the game with his arm, and he couldn’t. Look for Clark to outplay Pryor, and the Lions to pull away for another win.

USC @ Arizona State – As I documented earlier, USC hasn’t been in this situation in eight years. The national title, Pac 10 crown and Rose Bowl are likely gone. Now they have to go on the road. The Sun Devils have four losses, but two of those came in the last 5 seconds. Their season could go either way right now. Losing back to back league games would crush most teams, but it shouldn’t be too difficult to get up for a wounded Trojan squad. Sparky smells blood… too bad it’s his own. Trojans roll.

Upset Alert – Oregon @ Stanford – We’ve all seen how difficult it is to beat anyone coming off a big game win. Stanford is 5-3 on the year, 4-2 in the Pac 10. RB Toby Gerhart is just six yards shy of 1,000. The Ducks held Cal RB Jahvid Best in check, but will they be ready for a physical road game after such a huge home victory? I think Masoli will pull it out, but don’t be surprised if it takes everything the Ducks have to best the Cardinal.