HEISMAN VOTING 101

October 24, 2012

I am proud to say I have been an official voter for the Heisman Trophy since the 2005 season. I take this task very seriously, and I am not exaggerating when I say I am honored to receive a ballot. 

I would never tell someone who to vote for. It is your vote not mine. However, I do have some advice for my fellow voters.

First, you have to wipe the slate clean. The award is for the most outstanding player in college football for that particular year. In other words, what happened last year is irrelevant.  I don’t think voters look at stats or performances from previous years when comparing players, but I believe they do take past performances into account without acknowledging they are doing it.

I have seen numerous polls and debates in print, on radio and on TV rating Hesiman favorites or front runners. In some cases, I have seen people rank the top Heisman candidates in May for the upcoming season. If you are rating someone as a favorite in May, you are giving them a head start based on the previous season.

I have never ranked pre-season candidates. In fact, even now after eight college football weekends I do not have a “favorite.” There are a few players that have stood out to me, but this isn’t the BCS poll.  Teams can lead the polls for most of the year, but if they fail at the wrong time, they drop and run out of time to climb back to the top. I know it is referred to as “the Heisman race, but that doesn’t literally mean that people lead week to week and whoever finishes with the biggest flourish is the best in the country. I wait until the season is over and then look back at the entire year as a whole.

Secondly, don’t fall in love with stats. This isn’t baseball. Numbers can be deceiving. The offense they run and the competition they play can both skew numbers. Ty Detmer was given the 1990 Heisman because the passing numbers he was putting up were unprecedented. The problem  was he played at BYU and other than an early season win over Miami, he beat up on bad WAC teams. Meanwhile, the most exciting player in college football, Raghib “the Rocket” Ismail finished second. This hasn’t been as much of a problem since then. In fact, the last time I believe somebody won the Heisman due to stats was Colorado RB Rahsaan Salaam in 1994.

Last and most importantly, the award is not for the best player on the best team. In some cases, the most outstanding player is on the best team, but just because a team is ranked in the top three, that does not mean their QB deserves Heisman consideration. 

From what I can tell, that trend began in 1992 when Miami QB Gino Toretta won the award. The Hurricane defense carried that team thru the regular season, but he was the QB of an undefeated team. To me you can’t give him credit for quarterbacking the team to a perfect season when they managed to win one game with eight points and another with 80 yards passing. If anyone on that team deserved the award, my vote would have gone to LB Michael Barrow.

This thinking is not limited solely to quarterbacks. In 2009, Mark Ingram of Alabama won the Heisman. He had a couple big games for a team that went undefeated and he put up great numbers in the SEC Championship Game. The problem is he was a non-factor in a defensive win over Tennessee and was invisible in a come from behind win at Auburn. Bama was a great team, and Ingram was a very good player. But the best in the country? Hardly. 

There are plenty of people in this country who are quick to say the Heisman doesn’t mean as much any more. I understand why they say that. Too many voters are lazy and do not follow the basic guidelines I have laid out here. 

As for me, I will continue to record games every week with my Tivo, so I can see how the top players perform in their biggest games.  I will take the entire season into account along with big game performances, stats and competition. Around Thanksgiving, I will start thinking about who should be one, two and three on my ballot.

Games of the Week:

Florida vs. Georgia- The Cocktail Party has been dominated by the Gators in recent years. The men from Gainesville have won 18 of the last 22 games. If Florida can win here, they will have clinched the SEC East and a spot in the league title game. Georgia CB Damian Swann told the world this week that his team knows the Bulldogs need to win a big game to be taken seriously. The Gators have been impressive defensively, but they have struggled in their passing game. I expect the Bulldogs to keep this close, but the Gators win a defensive affair to stay perfect. I say Florida 17-10.

Notre Dame @ Oklahoma -The folks that don’t consider Notre Dame to be a true national title contender have pointed to this game as the reason why. Oklahoma has the most athletic defense the Irish will have faced, and there is no debating that OU has a more prolific passing game than anyone on ND’s schedule. If ND is going to be exposed, it will be here. I have said recently that the ND front seven is the best I have seen in South Bend in years. They won’t get embarrassed, but they won’t win either. I will take the Sooners 24-14.

Texas Tech @ Kansas State - While ND tries to prove it is a national title contender, Kansas State has already cemented itself in the conversation with road wins at Oklahoma and West Virginia. The Red Raiders can put up points with QB Seth Doege. It’s their defense facing KSU QB Collin Klein that will be the problem. Tech surrendered 53 points in a 3OT win at TCU last weekend. I think this game will be close. In fact, if it was in Lubbock, I’d take Texas Tech for the upset. In Manhattan, I will pick KSU to win 35-28.

WHAT CHANCE DO YOU HAVE

October 18, 2012

The initial BCS poll for the 2012 season has been released. With half of the schedule left for most teams, a lot of things could change between now and December 2nd. 

The lowest a team has been ranked in the initial poll and still made it to the championship game is 12th. Nick Saban’s 2003 LSU team pulled that off. So, let’s look at the top 12 of the first poll and see who is in good shape and who needs help.

On the outside looking in (or in this case UP) - #13 West Virginia, #14 Florida State, #15 Rutgers and #16 Louisville. WVU blew their shot when they were embarrassed last weekend 49-14 at Texas Tech. The Noles were looking like a contender until they fell flat with a 17-16 loss to NC State. Beating Florida on Thanksgiving weekend will help, but an ACC Champ with one loss won’t make the top two. As for Rutgers and Louisville. Both have defeated an SEC team this year, but those teams are Arkansas and Kentucky. 

#12 Mississippi State - They aren’t a traditional power, but they are in the SEC. They have road games left with Alabama and LSU. They will probably need to win out just to make the SEC Championship game. If they can finish 13-0 and SEC Champion, they are in. As low as they are currently, I’d say they still control their own destiny.

#11 Georgia - The Bulldogs took a bad loss at South Carolina. They need the Gamecocks to lose a league game, and they need to beat Florida just to win the SEC East. Even then, I don’t think they make it all the way to the top two without a bunch of help.

#10 USC - The Trojans already have a loss at Stanford. They do have Oregon and Notre Dame remaining on their schedule plus a possible rematch with Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship Game. USC needs to run the table. If they can beat the Ducks twice (a big if), they can still play for it all.

#9 Oklahoma - My preseason pick to win it all. With a home loss to KSU, they have no choice but to beat everyone as badly as they beat Texas last week. They host Notre Dame and visit West Virginia. The WVU loss didn’t hep their cause, but they likely have to win and look great doing it from here on out.

#8 Oregon State - The Beavers have a lot of land mines left. They finish with Oregon and a possible match-up with USC in the Pac 12 Championship. A loss in either of those games will keep them out of the top two, and a loss to anyone else will make them plummet in the polls.

#7 South Carolina - I think it is all still in front of the Gamecocks. They visit Florida this week and finish at Clemson. If they can win out and defeat either Alabama or LSU in the SEC Championship, I don’t see a two point road loss at LSU keeping them out of the top two.

#6 LSU - Even after losing at Florida, they scored a big win over South Carolina. With Texas A&M, Mississippi State and most importantly Alabama still on the schedule, win out and they will be in the top two.

#5 Notre Dame - The Irish aren’t getting any help from Purdue, Michigan and Michigan State. The Big Ten is having an awful year. That may come back to haunt the Irish. If they win out, I think they will need Oregon to lose a game. The Ducks still play ASU, Oregon State and USC (likely twice). By the time ND gets the Trojans, the Ducks may have already handed them a 2nd loss.

#4 Kansas State - The Wildcats may drop out of the conversation after this week. They must be 12-0 to have any shot to be in the top two. ND will likely jump them if both schools are undefeated, and they won’t jump a perfect Oregon team.

#3 Oregon - Their schedule is back loaded. Four of their last six games are on the road including games at USC and Oregon State. If they win out, I believe they will be in the title game. One loss early enough could allow them to jump back in if they win the conference and both ND and KSU lose a game.

#2 Florida - No one is jumping the Gators if they win out. They still play South Carolina, Georgia and Florida State in addition to the SEC Championship Game. A loss in the league title game would knock them out, but if they win the league with one loss, they will likely be in the top two.

#1 Alabama - A loss anywhere but the title game, and they can probably recover. Dare I say it, but even if LSU or Mississippi State beats them, they could end up playing in the championship again if Oregon, KSU and Notre Dame lose a game. Picture this... Bama loses to LSU and then LSU falls to Florida in the SEC Championship. Couldn’t you see Bama vs. Florida for the championship. Sadly, I can. 

Games of the Week:

Oregon @ Arizona State- The Ducks rank 2nd in the nation with 52.3 points per game and 4th in the country with 302.3 rushing yards per game. Oregon has scored at least 41 points in each of their last four meetings with the Sun Devils. Oregon was off last week but has not been tested yet this year. ASU has been impressive so far with their only loss coming at Missouri. I like the Ducks 48-28.

South Carolina @ Florida -The brutal stretch for the Gamecocks continues. After routing Georgia, they were nipped by LSU 23-21. SC RB Marcus Lattimore has a bruised hip and is questionable. The Gators survived their trap game at Vanderbilt. The winner of this game becomes the favorite in the SEC East. This game is in the Swamp which is why I like Florida in a defensive struggle. I’ll take the Gators 17-16.

Kansas State @ West Virginia - The “Geno Smith for Heisman” campaign took a major hit last week with a 49-14 loss at Texas Tech. WVU allows almost 400 yards a game thru the air. Lucky for them, KSU is ranked 112th in the nation in passing yards per game. The Wildcats are probably the Big 12’s last shot at  playing for the national championship. With the game in Morgantown and the Mountaineers playing with wounded pride, I think WVU bounces back with a 35-21 victory.

I CONFESS

October 11, 2012

I am a Whovian. Some time over the last year and a half, my wife and I got into watching the British science fiction show Dr. Who. Other than being a big Star Wars guy as a kid, I was never into sci-fi. I never watched Star Trek or Battlestar Galactica. For some reason, we got hooked on this show that relaunched in 2005 as a continuation of the original that aired from 1963-1989. 

Maybe it is because the new episodes air on Saturday nights. Maybe it is because I had too much time on my hands, but recently I realized that some of the characters on the show share the characteristics of certain people, programs and conferences in college football. 

Here are the links I have made from the world of college football to the world of Dr. Who.

Daleks - Alien race that destroys (or in their terms, “exterminates”) other species because any species that is not Dalek is inferior. Their CFB equivalent is... 

SEC - As much as SEC schools despise each other, they all look down on every other conference nationwide. Six consecutive national championships will do that to a conference. 

Cybermen - Humanoid robots made of steel. Humans are “converted” by having their brains removed and placed in a body of armor. Conversion removes class, race, sex, creed and emotion. Their CFB equivalent is...

Big East - Whether you play basketball in Houston or football in San Diego, you are now Big East. Abandon all that you previously believed and prepare to be converted into what your new ruler wants you to be.

Weeping Angels - Also known as “the Lonely Assassins.” When being observed, they turn to stone. Turn your back, look away or even blink, and they are deadly. Their CFB equivalent is... 

Clemson - Underestimate them and they will take you out. However, when they draw your attention and the world watches, they turn to stone.

Sontarans - Alien race with a militaristic culture. Every aspect of their society is geared toward warfare and win or lose, the battle itself is glorious. College football equivalent is...

Army, Navy and Air Force - The military academies prepare for battles much larger than those on the gridiron. They all relish the opportunity to compete side by side in battle.

Silurians - Native race of earth. They live underground away from the human race. Some are content with life as it is. Others look forward to the day they come to surface and reclaim their rightful place as the dominant species of planet Earth. Their college football equivalent is...

Notre Dame - The Irish have spent a lot of time beneath the surface of college football. They were the original dominant program. Many of their followers are anxious for the day they reclaim their rightful place as rulers of college football.

The Silence - Alien race that has been living on earth since the beginning. Why haven’t we seen them? We have. When you aren’t looking at them, they basically edit themselves out of your mind. Unless you are looking at them, you forget they exist. Their college football equivalent is...

Miami - When things are going well for the U, they are must see college football. They have talented athletes and swagger. However, when things aren’t going well, you practically forget about them. It seems to be all or nothing with this program. Fear them or forget about them. There is no in between.

River Song - She is a companion of the Doctor. She is also a time traveler. She and the Doctor meet out of order. Their first meeting for him is their last from her perspective. It is so complicated, she has a diary to help keep track of what they have already done together and what she has done that is in the Doctor’s future. Confused yet? Her college football equivalent is...

Kansas State - The Wildcats are also hard to understand. They had no history to speak of as a program until Bill Snyder came along. He took over a program that had lost 27 straight games. Before he was done in 2005, he won KSU its first conference title since 1934. After three mediocre seasons under Tom Prince, they brought the old man back. Somehow, he has them back in the top 5. It defies logic.

Amy Pond - Companion of the Doctor. He dropped out of the sky when she was seven years old. He tells her he will be right back and leaves in his time machine. Instead of returning twelve minutes later as promised, he mistakenly returns twelve years later. After a brief adventure together in her hometown, the Doctor leaves her for another two years before she joins him on his travels. He refers to her as “the girl who waited.” Her college football equivalent is...

ACC - The league will have 14 football playing members when Pitt & Syracuse join next season. Notre Dame will soon join in all sports except football. Even though that will bring the ACC to 15 teams playing basketball, they do not plan to add a 16th school for hoops. Why? Like Amy Pond waiting for the Doctor, the ACC will patiently wait for Notre Dame football to come and take them to new and amazing places.

Rory Williams - Companion of the Doctor. Introduced with Amy Pond as a bumbler for some comic relief. He finds his sense of adventure and becomes brave, admirable and in some cases feared. His college football equivalent is...

Oregon - The Ducks were once known for the Donald Duck clone of a mascot and their funny uniform combinations. Okay, to some they are still known for the uniforms. Over time they have become so potent offensively, they are taken very seriously and feared by defensive coordinators every where.

The Doctor - He is a time lord. His enemies consider him to be the greatest evil in the universe. His friends and followers will defend him to their last breath. Just recently, all records of him were deleted from every database in the universe. His college football equivalent is...

Joe Paterno - Ditto.

Games of the Week:

Oklahoma vs. Texas- The Red River Rivalry is one of my favorite college football traditions. It is basically a mid-season bowl game between two great programs. Expect a close game. Three of the last fourteen meetings have been decided by double digits. Both defenses will be tested. I liked OU to win this game before the season, and I haven’t seen anything to change my mind. I’ll take the Sooners 31-27.

South Carolina @ LSU -What a performance last Saturday by the Gamecocks! They jumped all over Georgia en route to a 35-7 blowout. They have won a school record ten straight games. As awesome as their crowd was last week, they are in as hostile an environment as you will see this week. LSU’s offense never found the end zone last weekend in a 14-6 loss to Florida. The Tigers can’t afford another loss. The ‘ol ball coach has a defense that will keep them in the game, but I don’t think they can win two games like this back-to-back. I like LSU 20-14.

Stanford @ Notre Dame - The Irish defense is the talk of the nation. They have only allowed three TDs thru five games, and Notre Dame has not trailed this season. Stanford is hard to figure out. They upset USC, rally to beat Arizona in OT and then lose on the road to Washington. Stanford is the most balanced offensive attack that ND has faced so far this season. With the game being in South Bend, I think the Irish stay undefeated. I like ND 27-21.

SHOW ME WHAT YOU GOT

October 4, 2012

This week it is all about the games. Three to be specific. My games of the week all feature a battle of unbeatens.

It is too early in the season for this weekend to be given a special nickname by ESPN like Separation Saturday or Judgement Day.  However, there is no debating that the three games listed below will not only thin the herd competing for the BCS Championship Game, they will thrust the winners into the nation’s spotlight. 

Thanks to one of the most absurd offensive performances (and equally absurd but in a completely different way defensive performance), Geno Smith and West Virginia are the talk of the college football world. Putting up a ton of points at home against Baylor is nice, but beating undefeated Texas in Austin in your first Big 12 road game is completely different.

Texas is just three years removed from the national championship game. Since Colt McCoy injured his shoulder on the opening drive that night, it has been all down hill. The Longhorns went 5-7 in 2010 and 8-5 last year. They have a chance to enter their annual showdown with Oklahoma 5-0 and ranked in the top ten.

In the SEC, there are two match-ups of note. One will give someone a leg up in the SEC East. For Georgia, it could mean more than that. With a road win Saturday, the Bulldogs should enter the annual clash with Florida with a perfect record. These two games and a road game at Auburn are the only regular season tests remaining for Georgia. A win here puts them in serious national title consideration.

As for the Gamecocks, they still have to visit LSU, Florida and Clemson. A win over Georgia will show them as a legit threat, but a run to the BCS Title Game is less likely.

Speaking of the Gators, no one has two more impressive road wins than Florida winning at Texas A&M and Tennessee in consecutive weeks. Florida has played better each week, and they will also jump into the BCS championship talk with a win over LSU. They have two weeks to prepare, and they only game left in the regular season where Florida will leave the state is a trip to Vanderbilt next Saturday.

LSU has slipped in the polls the last few weeks after struggling to a 12-10 win over Auburn and letting Towson of the FCS hang around last week in a 38-22 victory, If the Tigers can win in the Swamp, the last two weeks become irrelevant. 

What can Geno Smith do for an encore? Are Texas, Georgia and Florida national title contenders? Is South Carolina ready to take the next step as a program and win ten games again? Is LSU still on the level of Alabama? We may not get complete answers to those questions this week, but it’s time for these six teams to show me what they got.

Games of the Week:

 West Virginia @ Texas- This game features the two highest rated QBs in the nation in WVU’s Geno Smith and David Ash of Texas. The Longhorns rank 63rd in total defense. While that doesn’t sound overly impressive, they compare to the ’85 Bears when you realize WVU is ranked 106th. The Mountaineers have scored ten touchdowns in three of their last five games dating back to their Orange Bowl romp over Clemson. The Horns eked out a tough road win over Oklahoma State last week. I think Texas wins a shootout 48-41. 

Georgia @ South Carolina -It’s a big game with big names. Georgia QB Aaron Murray is leading an offense that is averaging over 48 points per game. Defensively, LB Jarvis Jones continues to make game changing plays. The Gamecocks have a defensive star of their own in DE Jadeveon Clowney and one of the best RBs in the nation in Marcus Lattimore. QB play is the key to this game for me. Murray is experienced and has won on the road at Missouri. Carolina’s QB play has been average at best. I like Georgia 31-20.

LSU @ Florida - Mighty LSU has looked human the last two weeks. At Auburn they escaped with a 12-10 win. In the victory, QB Zach Mettenberger completed 15 of 27 passes for 169 yards and fumbled twice. Last week, LSU was out gained on the ground by Towson in a sloppy 38-22 win. Meanwhile, the Gators were less than impressive in week one in besting Bowling Green, but then went on the road and defeated Texas A&M and Tennessee. They blanked Kentucky 38-0 and have two weeks to prepare for the Tigers. The Swamp will be rocking. I smell an upset. I like Florida 21-19.