Thursday, October 8, 2009

LESSONS LEARNED

October 8, 2009


Five college football Saturdays are behind us. Nine more lie ahead. Here are a few lessons we’ve learned so far this season.


1. Cincinnati is becoming the premier program in the Big East. The Bearcats have won 10 or more games the last two years. This year, they are 5-0 with three road wins (at Rutgers, Oregon State and Miami, OH). After winning the Big East’s BCS bid and finishing the ’08 season in the Orange Bowl, Cincy lost 10 defensive starters to graduation, and they still look like the class of the conference. In fact, one week ago, collegefootballnews.com was projecting them as Florida’s opponent in the BCS Championship game this January.


Brian Kelly is getting noticed on the national scene, which could lead to the program’s downfall if they can’t keep him.


Cincinnati also deserves credit for the schedule they play. They have faced Oregon State, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Penn State over the previous four seasons. In the next three years, they’ll battle OU and OSU again as well as Miami, Virginia Tech and Tennessee.


2. Cal is the Clemson of the west coast. The Clemson Tigers have a reputation for surprising college football fans. When the chips are down, they rise up and knock somebody off. When they are ranked high and expected to do great things, they fall flatter than Bob Stoops in the BCS. The Bears have two double-digit win seasons this decade. They are just dangerous enough to beat a top ranked team when no one notices them beforehand. However, shine a spotlight on this program that has gone 50 years without a trip to Pasadena, and they shrink faster than the Baton Rouge chapter of the Nick Saban fan club. The Bears were 6th in the nation after three games. Now, they are unranked after being outscored 72-6 by Oregon and USC. Better make that 51 years with no Rose Bowls.


3. Jimmy Clausen is a big time quarterback. Through five games this year, Clausen has completed 67.6% of his passes for 1,544 yards, 12 TDs and 2INTs. His QB rating of 179.3 leads the nation, and so does his 10.43 yards per attempt. I know what you are saying. Those are just numbers. That’s true. The mark of a great QB is the ability to be great when it matters most. At Michigan, down 31-20 in the 4th quarter, he led two scoring drives to go ahead before the Irish defense let him down. Throw in do-or-die drives against Purdue and Washington, and we can officially call him clutch.


4. Tim Tebow is human. The Gators say Tim Tebow is a game-time decision for Saturday’s showdown with LSU. The hit that knocked Superman out of the Kentucky game was as nasty a shot as I’ve seen in years on the college gridiron. After speaking with Lafayette Head Coach Frank Tavani this week, (a man that’s been around more than one concussion in his day) I can’t see Tebow playing. While Coach Tavani admits he is no doctor and has not seen any scans or x-rays on the Gator QB, the on-field symptoms are the key. He was knocked cold and was vomiting on the sideline. “Those are symptoms of a grade three concussion,” Tavani said, “which normally means about four weeks.” Not two.


Games of the Week:


Florida @ LSUConsidering Tebow’s back-up John Brantley broke his Florida high school records, he’s still worth watching if Superman can’t go Saturday night. These two schools have won the last three BCS Championships and four of the last six. LSU sophomore QB Jordan Jefferson is coming into his own after leading not one, but two go-ahead TD drives in the final five minutes at Georgia last week. If Tebow were healthy, I’d take the Gators. Without him, I think the Tigers hand them their first loss. Would that mean Brantley has to give “the speech” this year?


Alabama @ Mississippi The Rebels have lost five straight to Bama and 13 of the last 15. Last year, the Crimson Tide led 24-3 at halftime and held on for a 24-20 victory. This is the biggest game in Oxford since Eli Manning led Ole Miss against LSU in November 2003. That one ended with a 17-14 Tiger victory that all but ended the Rebels hopes for a spot in the SEC Championship game. Different QB, different opponent, but the same story. Bama’s defense will be too much.


Boston College @ Virginia Tech These two have played four times the last two seasons with two meetings coming in the ACC Championship game. BC has won both regular season contests, with the Hokies claiming the league crown and subsequent BCS bid each year. After falling at Clemson, the Eagles have responded with wins over Wake Forest and FSU. BC freshman QB Dave Shinskie has taken the job from Justin Tuggle and responded with five TD passes and only one INT over the last two Saturdays. Winning at home is one thing. Winning on the road is another. Winning in Blacksburg is something else, and winning in Blacksburg with a freshman QB is just not happening. I’ll take the Hokies with another rematch coming in December.


Upset Alert – Auburn @ Arkansas – The Hogs are 2-2, but they have scored 40 or more points in three of their four games this season. The Tigers (my pre-season SEC sleeper) are unbeaten. Their first road game was last week, a 26-22 win at Tennessee. Any college football coach will tell you how tough it is to win on the road. It’s even harder to do it on consecutive Saturdays. Watch for the Hogs to put up too many points for Auburn to keep up.

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