Every year at this time, college football fans and analysts make mountains out of mole hills. Any small trend that has developed over the first three weeks leads to hard conclusions about the remaining 11 weeks of the season. Most of them will be disproved by Columbus Day.
Last year gave us East Carolina. At this point in 2008, they were all but assured of a BCS berth after defeating Virginia Tech and West Virginia. They finished with four regular season losses.
Here are five bandwagons I wouldn’t hop aboard just yet.
Tennessee is closer to being back than we thought. Urban Meyer was right, sort of. The Vols were content to keep the game close Saturday and avoid embarrassment. I wouldn’t go as far as to say they weren’t trying to win. Lane Kiffin knew they have a below average QB and didn’t want him to open the door for a 40-point blowout loss. They played well defensively and hung tough with the Gators. However, they are still deficient in the passing game. Their defense will keep them in games, but unless Crompton starts channeling Peyton Manning over the next three months, bowl eligibility should be the goal.
Miami is a contender for the BCS Title Game. Randy Shannon is doing a marvelous job at the U. The first four games on the Canes schedule make-up the toughest opening month of any team in the nation. However, they are only at the midway point of that gauntlet. Miami edged FSU when Chris Ponder short hopped the game winning TD pass. The win over Georgia Tech was nice, but a trip to Blacksburg awaits followed by a home date with Oklahoma. The Canes could easily find themselves at 2-2 with five league games remaining.
Poor USC may be kept out of the BCS Title Game due to one early season loss again. First of all, how many times has that scenario actually happened to the Trojans? Let’s examine the Pete Carroll era. In ’02, they lost two of their first five and made the BCS as an at-large team. In ’03, their rightful spot in the Sugar Bowl was given to Big 12 title game loser Oklahoma. The BCS formula was altered after the bowls decreasing the weight given to computer polls. (By the way, the Trojans still claimed a share of the national title.) USC played for the crown in ’04 and ’05. In ’06, USC was packing its bags for Glendale, Arizona and a date with OhioState when they were upset by UCLA. It was their second loss. In ’07, the Trojans lost to Stanford andOregon, sending them to Pasadena. Last year, one early season loss did keep them out of the title game, but I think Texas had a bigger grievance.
It’s true. Saturday’s loss to Washington may keep USC out of the championship game. However, anyone talking like that is already assuming USC is the same team as they have been each of the last seven seasons. After watching their last two games, I don’t believe that is the case. With road games remaining with Cal, Oregon, ArizonaState and Notre Dame, the “poor USC” sentiment will be moot by Halloween.
Notre Dame is still looking at another four or five loss season. Yes, it is true. Notre Dame is one play away from being 1-2. They are also one play away from being 3-0. The Irish defense clearly has issues, and the loss of WR Michael Floyd to a broken collarbone will hurt. However, this team is still scary on offense and has a great chance to be 4-1 when USC comes to town. If they are 5-1 on October 18, a BCS bid lies ahead.
(Insert team here) is totally overrated/underrated in the polls. The polls are important for a few reasons. The best teams obviously need to be in the top two to play for the national championship. Teams that do not win their league can qualify for the BCS automatically depending on their ranking. Non-BCS conference teams need to reach a certain threshold to make it into the BCS. However, it’s September for crying out loud! 75% of the regular season is still in front of us. The only poll that counts for anything is the one on December 6th. Until then, pipe down… no one cares where you should be ranked.
Games of the Week:
Miami @ Virginia Tech –With a 2-0 start in the ACC, the Canes would become the new favorites if they can beat the Hokies. Va Tech has won 4 of the last 6 in the series and has held the U to 14 points or less in the last three meetings. Miami QB Jacory Harris can thrust himself into Heisman consideration with another strong performance here. I thought the Canes would be 1-3 in early October. They have already exceeded my expectations. In Blacksburg, I’ll still take the Hokies in a close one.
Cal @ Oregon – Speaking of Heisman candidates, did anyone see Jahvid Best’s five touchdown performance last week at Minnesota? Wow! Thanks to USC’s early league loss at Washington, the Bears can seize control of the Pac 10 in their next three games. Cal will be without WR Nyan Boateng for 4-6 weeks. That will hurt. Meanwhile, the Ducks have put the trip to Boise behind them with back-to-back wins. Cal has won three straight and four of the last five in the series. If Cal has dreams of playing in its first Rose Bowl in 50 years, a win here is a must. I believe they get it.
Iowa @ Penn State – Iowa has won 6 of the last 7 meetings with PSU. How? They control the line of scrimmage and are well coached. Considering the early season struggles of the PSU O-Line, this will be a solid test. The Lions enter the game a little banged up defensively. LBs Navarro Bowman (groin) and Sean Lee (knee) are questionable. With kickoff set for 8pm, this is the declared stadium-wide whiteout game. The atmosphere and experience should help the Lions pull out a tough win.
Upset Alert – Colorado State @ BYU – A week ago, the Cougars were talking BCS. Now, after getting handled at home by FloridaState, they must beware of a let down. Last season, they edged CSU 45-42 in a game that had 5 fourth quarter lead changes. If the disappointment of last week hasn’t fully subsided, the Rams are strong enough to take advantage.
In football, as in life, there is a time for everything. There is a time to go for it. There is a time to ask her out. There is a time to punt. There is a time to offer a helping hand. There is a time to spike the ball. There is a time to let the machine get it.
Choosing the wrong time to do something can quickly end a drive, stall a relationship or lose a football game. Last Saturday, Jim Tressel and Charlie Weis learned that the hard way.
In Ann Arbor, Notre Dame led Michigan 34-31 with 2:29 remaining. The Irish faced a 2nd and 10 from their own 29. Weis called two consecutive pass plays. Both of which were incomplete. The incompletions stopped the clock, allowing Michigan to preserve its last two timeouts.
As you probably know by now, Michigan proceeded to drive 58 yards and score the winning TD with 11 seconds left on the clock.
Michigan was starting a true freshman at QB in Tate Forcier. Charlie Weis had the opportunity to force Michigan to use its remaining time outs and force this 18-year-old kid to try and win the game with no safety net.
On the 3rd play of the winning drive, Forcier was sacked and called time out. Imagine the pressure if that had happened and he had to get the other 10 players back on the line, with the clock running while trying to get the next play from the sideline. He may have gotten them into field goal range, but you can bet they wouldn’t have had time to reach the end zone.
There’s a time to be aggressive and a time to play the percentages. Charlie Weis had it backwards. So, did Jim Tressel.
The first quarter ended in Columbus with the score tied at seven and OSU facing 4th and goal on the USC one yard line.
To that point, USC had five yards of offense (zero if you include their false start penalty) and no first downs. The Trojans lone score was a two yard drive following a Terrelle Pryor interception, and it took the Trojans four plays to punch it in. In short, the Buckeye defense was dominating.
Jim Tressel kicked the field goal for a 10-7 lead. The message was clear. The Buckeyes were afraid of USC. Tressel had the end of the quarter time out to gather the offense and say, “We’re punching it in right here!” Not only would that have shown confidence in his offense, it would have shown the same confidence in his defense. If they failed to score, USC would have taken over with 99 yards in front of them, with a true freshman QB trying to run a play in his own end zone at the enclosed (i.e. loudest) end of the Horseshoe.
Last year, with a veteran USC team, on the road, you kick the FG. When you have USC in your house, in front of a rabid, record crowd with Matt Barkley at QB, you turn up the heat. Tressel let USC off the hook and sent the wrong message to his team.
Coaching is not the only reason ND and OSU lost. Terrelle Pryor missed open receivers. Notre Dame allowed a 94 yard kickoff return for a TD. However, the decisions of Weis and Tressel, while appropriate at other times, in other games, with other teams, were the wrong choice Saturday. Ultimately, I believe it cost the Irish and Buckeyes a victory.
Games of the Week:
West Virginia @ Auburn – Last year, Auburn failed to score 20 points in 7 of their 12 games. Thru two games in the Gene Chizik era, the Tigers are averaging 43 points per contest. The Mountaineers have tussled with Liberty and East Carolina, before pulling away for comfortable wins. WVU outgained Auburn 445-260 in a 34-17 win last October in Morgantown. The Big East could use some more Mountaineer magic, but I think the Tigers will prevail.
Nebraska @ Virginia Tech – The Hokies played Bama tough in week one, but are still 1-1 as expected. The Huskers are hoping to make a big statement in Blacksburg. Big Red hasn’t won a game like this in almost a decade. In fact, the Huskers have dropped nine straight to ranked opponents. The Hokies have Miami next week. Even if Nebraska isn’t what it used to be, they are too big a name program to have Va Tech looking ahead. I expect a VT victory.
Florida State @ BYU – The Noles followed up their heartbreaking loss to Miami by eking out a win over 1-AA Jacksonville State. BYU is riding high as the non-BCS flavor of the month. (Sorry, Boise. Your win over OU was nice. Their win over the other OU was better.) BYU has its sights set on the BCS and maybe (if things break right) Pasadena. Strange things happen when big programs go to Provo. FSU should win… but I have a hard time believing they will.
Upset Alert – OhioState vs. Toledo – This one is not being played in Columbus. Instead, the Buckeyes and Rockets will tangle in Cleveland. OSU had circled the game with USC on the calendar the minute they returned home from the Fiesta Bowl in January. They better be able to forget about last week’s heartbreak fast. As great as the OSU defense played for the first 53 minutes last week, they came up short when it mattered most. OSU has actually allowed four TD drives of 80+ yards so far this year. Toledo scored 31 in a loss to Purdue and hung 54 on Colorado. Don’t be surprised if the Rockets scare the daylights out of the Bucks in Clevelandon Saturday.
Perception is not always reality. In fact, many important people don’t concern themselves at all with how the public perceives them. Who cares if people they don’t know have the wrong idea about them? However, in the world of college football, perception can trump what happened on the field.
No other sport is more dependent on perception and opinion than college football. It is perception and opinion that tells us which two teams will be chosen to play for the national championship.
Andre Agassi was right. Image is everything, and right now, the Big 10 has an image problem. The nation’s most mathematically challenged conference is 0-6 in the BCS over the last three postseasons. Throw in OhioState’s 35-3 loss at USC last September, and you end up where we are today. Fans of the SEC, Big 12 and Pac 10 feeling the Big Ten gets fat off weak non-league competition, but cannot compete with the rest of the nation’s elite.
The Big 10 could go a long way in restoring its image by improving on last year’s 1-6 mark in bowl games. Until then, the only way to change the nation’s perception of Big 10 inferiority lies in non-conference victories.
A 10-1 start last weekend sounds pretty good, but if you are playing weaker competition, simply winning isn’t enough. The mighty Ohio State Buckeyes had to hold on for dear life to beat Navy! Iowa had to block two FGs in the closing seconds to beat 1-AA Northern Iowa!
The only Big Ten team that played someone noteworthy to start the year was Illinois. An Illini team that brought back eight offensive starters including four-year starter Juice Williams at QB and WR Arrelious Benn managed nine points in a four touchdown loss to Missouri.
The good news for the Big Ten is that the close calls of week one will be long forgotten with a strong showing conference wide in week two. The eleven games this Saturday break down into four categories: statement games, swing games, “don’t you dare” games and “who cares” games.
The “Who cares?” games are obvious. Northwestern hosts Eastern Michigan while Indiana entertains Western Michigan. Wins in either or both games will not boost the league’s resume. Conversely, NW and IU are so far down the college football food chain, losses this week will barely be noticed.
The “Don’t you dare” games involve match-ups that can only hurt the Big Ten’s image. If PennStateSyracuse, Michigan State defeats Central Michigan and Illinois bests IllinoisState, they each get a meaningless W. Should any of them dare to lose this Saturday, it would be another embarrassment for a league that cannot afford any. beats
The four swing games will not receive national attention no matter who wins, but the opponents are noteworthy enough to boost the league’s resume. To start the day, Wisconsin hosts FresnoState and IowaIowaState. Fresno is not a BCS conference team, but they have a solid enough reputation that a Badger win is not to be glossed over. The Hawkeyes have scored 17 points or less in 8 of their last 11 meetings with the Big 12 North’s perennial doormats. After Iowa’s scare last week, they can ill afford to come up short here. At 7pm, Minnesota opens its new on campus stadium against Air Force. I know what you’re thinking. If OhioState edging Navy was cause for concern, why is this game with another service academy so important? Quite simply put, Minnesota is not OhioState. It’s one thing for the Gophers who were 1-11 just two years ago to beat an academy. It’s a major concern when one of the league’s elite struggles to do the same. Lastly, Purdue visits Oregon. The last time America saw the Ducks, they were getting pushed around by BoiseState and throwing punches leaving the field. That’s not exactly a program you want to lose to the next week. battles in-state rival
That leaves us with the statement games. Ohio State-USC is an obvious one. One of the Big Ten’s favorite explanations (or excuses) for their impotence in the Rose Bowl has been that USC plays a virtual home game. That is an advantage, but the talent gap has been so wide in those games, they could have played on the moon. It wouldn’t have mattered. This time the Trojans come to the Horseshoe. They have a true freshman at QB. The Big Ten needs this game.
The second statement game is in this category for different reasons. Michigan is hosting Notre Dame. OhioState has a chance to beat the top program this decade in college football. Notre Dame is trying to show they are back among the elite. A Wolverine victory is necessary because the Big Ten needs a rebirth in Ann Arbor to help change the nation’s perception.
When the power teams in any league are down, the perception is the league is down. The ACC is deep. It just doesn’t have any elite teams. How much would perception change if Miami and FloridaState started winning 10 or 11 games a year again? Even if a few teams slid back under .500, the league’s reputation would be much higher than it is now even with fewer quality teams.
This is it Big Ten. After this weekend, the opportunities to make a statement are slim. There are three must haves, four resume builders and two snoozefests. Those nine outcomes can become irrelevant in a good way or a bad way depending on how the Buckeyes and Wolverines fare.
Games of the Week:
UCLA @ Tennessee – Lane Kiffin debuted with a 63-7 drubbing of Western Kentucky. The Bruins downed San DiegoState 33-14, one year after giving Coach Rick Neuheisel a debut OT win over these Vols. UCLA still won’t be confused with USC or Florida for that matter (the Vols opponent next Saturday). However, another solid performance here and there will be more interest in next Saturday’s showdown in the swamp than just, “How many points will Meyer hang on Kiffin?” Expect to hear Rocky Top all night.
Notre Dame @ Michigan – Each program is coming off hard times. The Wolverines showed life last week but are still lacking experience at QB. The Irish are 3-8 in their last 11 road games. The home team is 8-2 in the last ten meetings. Michigan is definitely better than they were a year ago when they turned the ball over six times in South Bend. Jimmy Clausen will be the difference this time, not Wolverine mistakes.
USC @ Ohio State – The biggest must win game in recent memory for any conference. The mighty Trojans finally come to the Midwest. Better yet, they come with a true freshman QB making his first road start. USC’s athleticism will keep them in the game. OSU’s defense and kicking game will eke out the win.
Upset Alert – James Madison @ Maryland – The ACC did not have a good opening week. In its ten non-league games, the ACC went 4-6 with two losses to 1-AA competition. The Terps traveled 3,000 miles to get manhandled by Cal 52-13. The Dukes have not played yet. They have experience at QB and RB, and are always a contender for the 1-AA title. Last year, Delaware didn’t fear the turtle at all losing 14-7 in College Park. If there’s any lingering effects from the cross country journey and Cal beatdown, the Dukes will take advantage.
FINALLY! Another season of college football is upon us. This week, I’m not wasting any time. Here’s how I see the season shaking out.
SEC East – Last year, Florida lost a game at home by one point. Afterwards, QB Tim Tebow gave his famous speech declaring no team would work harder than the Gators. From that point on, they won their eight remaining regular season games by an average margin of 39 points. With an absurd amount of talent back, winning the SEC is a foregone conclusion. The question is whether or not they run the table. With two weeks to prepare for their toughest road game (at LSU on 10/10), I say yes.
SEC West - I see Alabama’s defense being the difference. The Tide won’t head to Atlanta perfect as they did last year, but Ole Miss isn’t used to high expectations. LSU’s schedule is brutal with Bama, Ole Miss and Georgia on the road in addition to home dates with Auburn and Florida. The Rebels will stumble twice. That will keep them out of the SEC Title Game, but IN BCS consideration.
SEC Sleeper – Auburn was a big underachiever last season. New coach Gene Chizik has 15 starters back. Don’t be surprised if they head to Baton Rouge on October 24 with only one loss.
Big 12 South – The whole conference boils down to the Red River Shootout in Dallas on October 17. I’m tempted to take Oklahoma to win the league with no tiebreaker nonsense. They have the talent. They’ll be tested plenty more than Texas before their big game. Plus, they were up two scores on the Horns last year, before LB Ryan Reynolds went down with an injury. However, much like Tim Tebow and Florida, Colt McCoy and TexasMiami last year. This season, they get their showdown with the Gators. are on a mission. They were one second away from
Big 12 North – Talk about a sacrificial lamb. The disparity in talent between the two divisions is amazing. Nebraska will be in the running, but I think the division goes to Kansas. The Jayhawks have a senior QB in Todd Reesing. They don’t play Texas or OklahomaState, and they get Nebraska at home the week after the Huskers play OU.
Big 12 Sleeper – It’s hard to call a top 10 team a sleeper, but no one believes Oklahoma State can win the league. They can. They always give Texas fits. If the Horns don’t beat OU, they could have two losses by November. If OSU does more than scare the Longhorns, they’ll sit down to Thanksgiving dinner with a shot at a league crown.
Big 10 – Sorry, Nittany Lion fans. It’s going to be OhioState heading to Pasadena for the first time in 13 years. I believe PSU can even win the match-up on November 7th and still not take the league crown. PSU is not as talented this year, and the league’s depth has improved. Illinois has the weapons to move the ball on a revamped Lion secondary. Plus, the mother of all trap games awaits JoePa in Evanston. It comes after Michigan and before OSU. Throw in that PSU is 2-9 in the back end of consecutive league road games, and the fact that PSU always has their hands full at NW (last four meetings here were decided by 5 points per game) and that means danger. Prior to the trip to Beaver Stadium, the Bucks only leave the state to face Indiana and Purdue.
Big 10 Sleeper – Last year, Illinois couldn’t sneak up on people. This year the pressure is off. They have as much experience at QB as any team in the nation with Juice Williams, and a stud for him to throw to in Arrelious Benn. If they can go 2-1 in their first three league games (at OSU, PSU and MSU), they’ll be in the thick of it the rest of the way.
Pac 10 – If there was ever a year to take out USC, this is it. The Trojans will start true freshman Matt Barkley at QB, and they return only three starters on defense. By the end of the year, I expect USC to have put it altogether. However, four of their first six games are on the road, including trips to Ohio State, Cal and Notre Dame.With such a tough road schedule, USC will be hard pressed to be in the national title picture. Three or even four losses are a distinct possibility. Watch out for them next year, but in 2009, I’ll take the Cal Bears. Cal has 15 starters back and the best RB in the nation in Jahvid Best.
Pac 10 Sleeper – Watch out for the Stanford Cardinal. Jim Harbaugh has 50 lettermen returning from last year’s 5-7 squad. They have a great chance to start league play 3-0. With Oregon, USC and Cal at the back end of the schedule, expect to see them near the top of the league standings for a while… even if they fade in the end.
ACC Atlantic – Last year, the ACC was the most balanced league in the country. Expect more of the same this season with no dominant teams. Clemson has a new QB, and once again will be good but not great. FloridaStateBostonCollege ending on top thanks in part to a very experienced offensive line. has great talent but a brutal schedule. I see
ACC Coastal – UNC has lost the element of surprise and faces Va Tech and Ga Tech on the road. The Jackets were very impressive last year under first year head coach Paul Johnson. I just don’t see that offense winning a league title. The Hokies have the experience and the schedule to end up in the ACC Final. There, expect Beamer’s boys to best BC for the third consecutive year.
ACC Sleeper – WakeForest has the formula to return to the league championship game for the first time since 2006. They have an experienced senior QB with lots of experience up front. Plus, their manageable early schedule will have them in the picture until at least Halloween.
Big East – Every team in the Big East is flawed. That’s why none of the league’s eight teams cracked the preseason top 25. Thanks to an easy schedule, good coaching and lack of a better option, the pick is Rutgers. Every other contender for the crown plays in Piscataway. Pitt always underachieves. The Mountaineers are going in the wrong direction under Bill Stewart. South Florida has been a lousy road team in league play, and Cincinnati returns only one defensive starter.
Big East Sleeper - A league this wide open also makes it difficult to pick a sleeper. I’ll take South Florida with a senior QB in Matt Grothe. With only three Big East home games, they better figure out how to win on the road quickly.
The Rest – Notre Dame will beat USC this year. You read that right. I’m not as crazy as Lou Holtz or Beano Cook picking the Irish to play Florida in the BCS Championship game, but 10-2 and a BCS bid is definitely within reach. As for the non-BCS conferences, the Mountain West has talented teams, but Utah, BYU and TCU will be hard pressed to be perfect. The Boise State Broncos on the other hand will use an opening night win over Oregon to spring board back to the BCS.
BCS Championship Game – Florida (SEC Champ) over Texas (Big 12 Champ)
Rose Bowl – OhioState (Big 10 Champ) vs. California (Pac 10 Champ)
Sugar Bowl – Mississippi (At-large) vs. Rutgers (Big East Champ)
Fiesta Bowl – Notre Dame (At-large) vs. BoiseState (At-large)
Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech (ACC Champ) vs. Oklahoma (At-large)
Capital One Bowl – PennState vs. Alabama
Outback Bowl – Illinois vs. Georgia
Cotton Bowl – Oklahoma State vs. LSU
Gator Bowl – Pitt vs. Georgia Tech
Holiday Bowl – USC vs. Kansas
Normally, I’ll give you three games to watch that weekend. If you simply scroll down to my first blog entry, you’ll see the reasons why this week’s selected games are Oregon at Boise State, Virginia Tech versus Alabama (in Atlanta) and Miami at FloridaState. Here’s a new weekly feature.
Upset Alert – Western Michigan @ Michigan – Someone once said, “If you have two quarterbacks, you have NO quarterbacks.” That’s not always true. However, there’s no question that if you have three quarterbacks, you really have no quarterbacks. Michigan is expected to play junior Nick Sheridan as well as freshmen Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson. WMU has beaten Illinois, Iowa and Virginia over the last three seasons. They’ve also played at Nebraska, Missouri and West Virginia. The quietest 100,000 people in college football will not intimidate them at all. If there truly is dissension in the Wolverine locker room, Rich Rodriguez may have more to cry about when this one is over.
