EXPANSION ANSWERS

September 22, 2010

Although the college football expansion talk has quieted, some questions still remain. This week, I thought I’d answer as many of them as I could.

How will the Pac 10 divide itself? This may sound like a dumb question, but the Pac 10 or 12 or whatever it’s being called at the moment hasn’t decided on anything yet. Some are in favor of a “zipper” model. That would split up all travel partners. For example, Washington, Oregon, Cal, USC, Arizona and Colorado could be on one side, with Washington State, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State and Utah on the other. The issue is the northern schools feel they need games every year against the southern California schools for recruiting purposes. The easier way to do this is to simply go North and South. The North would be the Washington schools, the Oregon schools, Utah and Colorado with Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State in the South. You then guarantee that each northern school will play either UCLA or USC. If an 8-game league schedule is the plan, three northern schools would play the Bruins, the other three would play the Trojans.

Is the Big Ten done? This entire merry go round got started when the Big Ten announced it was considering expansion. Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney has openly admitted they moved up their timeline to wait until this December to make any decisions because the Big 12 was in limbo. Many people believe when this season ends, the Big Ten will look east to add two or even four more teams. In my opinion, the Big Ten will stay at 12. The conference has already said they want to play a 9-game league schedule by 2015. Why? They don’t want to play each other less. If you add just two more teams, even with a nine game conference schedule, you’d go from missing two teams a year, to four. The Big Ten loves its tradition. I don’t see them being able to agree on which teams to invite that are home runs if they were to go any bigger.

Is the Big East safe? If I am right about the Big Ten, then yes. If I’m wrong, kiss the Big East good bye. It doesn’t matter how important basketball is at Syracuse or Pitt, if the Big Ten calls, they’re both gone. The Big East is trying to solidify itself as a football league by adding a team too. By getting a ninth team, they’d play an eight game league schedule. That makes it easier scheduling non-conference games and evens out the number of home games within the league. The problem is that they can’t invite any school for all sports since they are already at 16 teams for basketball. So, they’ve approached Villanova about moving up to the FBS level to join the Big East. If that happens, that would give the Big East nine teams… three of whom were either FCS schools a decade ago or weren’t playing football at all.

Will Notre Dame remain independent? Yes. The only way the Irish will join a conference is if the world of the superconference arrives. If it appears as though there will be four 16-team conferences that throw the BCS rules (or the BCS in general) out the window, Notre Dame will have no choice but to join a league. However, the Big Ten would only get bigger if Notre Dame is one of the new entrants. ND won’t join unless they’re about to be left in the dust. To me it’s one giant game of chicken between the Big Ten and ND, and the Irish will call the Big Ten’s bluff.

Would the SEC raid the ACC? They may take a team from there if necessary, but the ACC would survive. First of all, the SEC is very happy with things as they are. If the Big Ten went to 16 teams, and the Pac 12 was about to do the same, the SEC would begrudgingly get bigger. This summer, when it seemed those moves were imminent, the SEC was talking to Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Some of the ACC schools that were thrown around as SEC targets were not on their radar. The ones talked about the most were Miami, Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech. The problem with those schools is that by inviting any of them, you elevate them to SEC status… thus hurting SEC schools already in that state. Florida, Georgia and South Carolina would be hurt by adding those schools. So don’t expect any of them to go any where. If the SEC goes east at all, I believe West Virginia and Virginia Tech would be its targets.

With the Big 12 hanging by a thread, this isn’t over yet. I’ll have more to say when the next shoe drops.

Games of the Week:

Miami @ Pitt – This game is Thursday night at Heinz Field. Both teams had high aspirations entering the season. Both already have a loss. The Panthers lost their opener at Utah and still have to play at Notre Dame before beginning Big East play. The Canes were embarrassed by Ohio State. A run to the BCS Championship game is gone, but the U is still trying to take that next step on its return to glory. I think Pitt RB Dion Lewis is a stud, but he won’t be enough against that Miami defense. Miami has too much speed for Pitt. I think Jacory Harris has a big night, and the U prevails.

Alabama @ Arkansas – The Hogs are for real. They went between the hedges last week and beat Georgia in the final minute. QB Ryan Mallett has NFL teams drooling at 6-foot-7 and 238 pounds. Bama is loaded with talent, but they have not been tested yet. San Jose State and Duke were over matched. Penn State went to Tuscaloosa with a true freshman QB and moved the ball on the Tide. I think this game will be a shoot out. Bama’s offense better be up for it. I’ll call for the out right upset. Bama may run the table from here on, but I could definitely see a loss in Fayetteville.

Oregon State @ Boise State – This is the home opener for the Broncos. Since they’re landmark win over Virginia Tech isn’t carrying nearly as much weight two week later (thank you very much James Madison), winning this game won’t be enough. Boise needs to lay it on the Beavers the way they did in 2006 when they rolled to a 42-14 victory. Oregon State painted their practice field blue to prepare for the trip to the smurf turf. They could have painted it any color they wanted, it won’t help a lick Saturday when they’re down by three touchdowns. The Broncos will roll.

OBSERVATIONS

September 15, 2010

Two weeks into the season, there is a lot to be learned the rest of the way. Here are a few things I feel we already know.

1. The ACC is NOT back! Last weekend gave the ACC a chance to make a major statement. They did. They are not ready for the big stage yet. Miami broke a few big plays against Ohio State, specifically on special teams. However, the U was out coached and over matched in a double digit loss to the Buckeyes. Jim Tressel even took mercy on the Canes by kneeling on the ball inside the five with two minutes left. You also had Florida State getting run over by Oklahoma and Virginia Tech’s embarrassing loss to James Madison.
2. Don’t underestimate the FCS, especially on a short week. Did the JMU-Virginia Tech result sound familiar? I’m not even referring to Appalachian State’s legendary win in Ann Arbor three years ago. Last season on Labor Day night, Florida State played a grueling battle with Miami. The Noles won 38-34. Five days later they were back on the field. Rather than taking the following Saturday off, they hosted Jacksonville State of the FCS. (Yes, Ole Miss fans… THAT Jacksonville State.) It took a late TD and turnover for FSU to pull out a 19-9 win. The Boise-Va Tech game was originally scheduled to be played in October. TV wanted to move it to Labor Day. Boise State said fine… as long as their game the following Saturday could be moved. Maybe Frank Beamer should have paid closer attention to that concept.
3. Denard Robinson can run pretty fast. Okay, so you don’t have to be the “Voice of Reason” to figure that one out for yourself. There’s no question that he’s dangerous, but let’s refrain from sending him a Heisman just yet. He ran all over a UConn team that plays no defense and a Notre Dame team that also plays little defense. Give him credit for the record setting days he has had, but ask yourself two questions. Will he hold up all year against Michigan State, Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State carrying the ball 25-30 times? And, didn’t Tate Forcier look awfully good last year in September? Forcier was the toast of the Big Ten after he beat ND in the closing seconds and started 4-0. Michigan finished 5-7.
4. Those Mormons are crazy! So BYU is going independent? I guess they have a few things in common with Notre Dame, college football’s major independent. They are both religious schools which gives them a fan base beyond just alumni. They both have exactly one national championship and one Heisman Trophy winner in the last 30 years. BYU even has its own TV network, they can now explore further without any conference constraints. The problem is they just gave up on the Mountain West Conference when it was about to receive an automatic BCS bid. Even with the loss of Utah to the Pac-12, the additions of Nevada, Fresno State and most importantly Boise State had all but assured the MWC of a spot at the big boy table. Now, BYU is hoping they are given the same BCS qualifying rules as ND. That’s not likely. Even if it is, a nine win minimum and top 14 ranking only gets them on the “eligible for an at-large bid” list. It doesn’t mean anyone will take them.

Games of the Week:

Iowa @ Arizona –One year after winning a BCS game, the Hawkeyes are poised for bigger and better things. They are an untested 2-0 heading to the desert Saturday. With a veteran QB in Ricky Stanzi and four returning starters on the D-Line, Iowa will likely play for the Big Ten title (or more) when they play Ohio State in November. ESPN’s Ivan Maisel has predicted they’ll play for the BCS Title. Well, here’s a solid early test. Last year in Iowa City, the Hawks controlled the Cats all day. Arizona QB Nick Foles is one of a few Pac 10 QBs that are getting looks at the next level. I think Iowa is for real. Expect their defense to be the difference.

Arkansas @ Georgia – The Bulldogs are already backed into a corner. They are 0-1 in the SEC. A loss here, and they could be out of the SEC East race before fall officially arrives. It won’t help that they will still be without star WR A.J. Green. They’ll also have their hands full with Ryan Mallett and the Hogs offense. Arkansas has only won 20 of 54 games against the Eastern division since the divisional split in 1992. That’s the worst mark of any team in the West. Between the Hedges, I’ll take a desperate Bulldog team that is better coached.

Texas @ Texas Tech – The more things change, the more they stay the same. Tommy Tuberville is now the head man in Lubbock, but the Red Raider offense is still lethal. They’ve scored 87 points through two games. This will be Texas’s first visit since Michael Crabtree turned the Big 12 on its ear with a second to play in 2008. This is not an easy environment for visiting teams, especially ones with as many freshmen on the field as the Longhorns will have Saturday. Tech will make it interesting, but I still think the Horns escape with a win this time.

THE GREATEST DAY EVER

September 8, 2010

Last year’s college football season was flat out boring. What was the major upset that shook up the polls? What highly ranked power lost? USC falling to Washington? Within a month, everyone was beating the Trojans. Well, everyone not named Notre Dame anyway. The pre-season favorites all ran the table. Sure, Texas almost lost the Big 12 Championship Game… almost.

Even for a Penn State fan, the year was boring. When they won, they won big. When they lost, they looked dreadful. The only thing to get excited about was a last minute bowl win in the mud against LSU.

The national championship game was even ruined. Alabama vs. Texas. Pasadena. The crystal football on the line. I thought maybe after all the blasé weeks we would at least get a memorable finish. Then Colt McCoy went down on the opening series. I know Garrett Gilbert made it interesting in the fourth quarter, but we still didn’t get the game we expected and deserved as fans.

This season couldn’t get here fast enough for me. Let’s start over. New upsets. New stars. New drama. I began examining schedules on January 9^th, looking for great match-ups I could look forward to during the long summer months. I liked what I saw.

In 2009, there were very few non-league games that were “can’t miss.” This season is the complete opposite, and Saturday is THE day! There are a couple of early league games of note. South Carolina hosts Georgia in the SEC East, and UCLA faces Stanford in the Pac 10. However, the real intrigue comes in SIX major non-conference contests. They are my games of the week.

Here are my thoughts on each. I’ll start with the game that an upset would stun me most and end with the biggest toss up

Games of the Week:

Penn State @ Alabama –Heisman Trophy winning RB Mark Ingram is questionable and star DE Marcell Darius is suspended. None of that will matter Saturday night. PSU will be starting true freshman Robert Bolden at QB. Can you think of a tougher road debut than this? Joe Paterno said Bama may be the best team he’s faced since the 1986 Miami Hurricanes. Expect PSU to try and make this an ugly game (i.e. any PSU gameplan in Columbus). That will likely keep the score from being embarrassing, but Bama will still win easily. Just like beating Youngstown State didn’t really tell us much about the Lions, losing here won’t tell us much either.

Oregon @ Tennessee – A new era began in Knoxville last week. The Derek Dooley era was ushered in with a 50-0 rout of FCS Tennessee-Martin. This week, the Ducks roll in fresh off a 72-0 pasting of New Mexico. The Vols will start Matt Simms (son of Phil Simms) at QB. Senior WR Gerald Jones is out with a broken bone in his left hand, and two other offensive starters are questionable (WR Denarius Moore and G Jerrod Shaw). The Ducks rolled up 720 yards of offense last week while breaking in a new QB and playing without RB LaMichael James. I expect the Ducks to have too much for the Vols… too much talent, too much experience and too many points.

South Florida @ Florida – The John Brantley era (or more accurately, the post-Tebow era) began inauspiciously Saturday. The Gators defeated Miami, OH 34-12, but wow, was it ugly! Florida fumbled eight times (losing three). Through three quarters, they had 25 yards of offense and minus-16 yards rushing. They will get some help this week with four offensive contributors expecting to return from injuries/suspensions. The Bulls are now coached by Skip Holtz. Remember, last year they won in Tallahassee. Don’t be surprised if they pull an upset. At the very least, Florida is in for a fight.

Miami, FL @ Ohio State – The Canes have talent and experience. They just don’t have experience up front on offense. You know the Buckeyes will be strong defensively and on special teams. They play disciplined football… something Miami has never been known for. A lot of people expect a shootout behind QBs Jacory Harris and Terrelle Pryor. I expect points to be hard to come by. A low scoring, pressure packed game favors OSU. They are used to those kinds of games in the Big Ten, and they are at home.

Florida State @ Oklahoma – So much for a tune-up game. The Sooners got a fight from Utah State last week but prevailed 31-24. OU gave up 421 total yards (341 through the air). QB Landry Jones completed just 17 of 36 passes and threw two interceptions. Meanwhile, the Noles gave Jimbo Fisher his 1^st win by rolling over Samford 59-6. If this game was in Tallahassee, it’d be a slam dunk for FSU. The Sooners will get up for this stiffer test, but will it be enough? I say no.

Michigan @ Notre Dame – It’s hard to tell how good either team is after wins over UConn and Purdue last week. I’m not really sure we will be any closer to knowing how good either team is after this game. Has Michigan turned the corner under Rich Rodriguez? Or did they simply defeat one team that plays no defense and another that’s breaking in a new coach? Has Brian Kelly got the Irish focusing on more than lighting up the scoreboard? Or did they simply beat two middle of the pack at best Big Ten teams? Even if we learn nothing from this, it will still be fun to watch ND try and defend Denard “Shoelace” Robinson while Michigan’s porous defense tries to slow down Allen, Crist, Floyd and Rudolph. I’ll take the Irish at home in a close one.

PREDICTIONS FOR 2010

September 1, 2010

FINALLY! Another season of college football is upon us. Here’s how I see the season shaking out.

SEC East – With Saint Timothy gone in Gainesville, the Gators will take a bit of a step backwards. They are still loaded with talent, but I could see 2-3 losses this year. Georgia has potential, but their schedule is not kind. They’ll play 4 league road games, in addition to the game in Jacksonville with Florida. I’ll go with my SEC Sleeper, South Carolina. The Gamecocks have tons of experience. In a transition year in the SEC East, I’ll take the Old Ballcoach.

SEC West – No team has gone unbeaten in SEC play for three straight years since Herschel Walker’s Georgia teams from 1980-82. Back then, they only played six conference games. Bama will stumble, but expect them to recover and win out. Auburn is a threat, but the Iron Bowl is in Tuscaloosa.

SEC Sleeper – South Carolina has 16 starters back including QB Stephen Garcia. They get Georgia at home in week two. A win there and they will contend for the East crown all year.

Big 12 South –Once again, the game in Dallas on October 2^nd should determine the division crown. Although, Garrett Gilbert played admirably in Pasadena filling in for Colt McCoy, OU will have too much for the Horns. The Sooners’ schedule will keep them from being perfect, but a return to the league title game is within reach.

Big 12 North –The final year in the Big 12 for Nebraska, should be an enjoyable one. The Huskers don’t play OU and get Texas, Missouri and Colorado at home. They are by far the class of the North. If they are even average on offense, a double-digit win season is likely.

Big 12 Sleeper – After back-to-back losing seasons, Texas A&M is ready to make some noise under Mike Sherman. With 16 starters returning, the Aggies have experience. Their schedule allows for a gaudy league record thru October. They’ll face OU, Nebraska and Texas in November.

Big 10 –The league is deeper this year, but it’s still OSU’s title to lose. I don’t believe they are good enough to stay perfect, but they should claim another trip to Pasadena with Iowa coming in a close second. Wisconsin is a threat, but I don’t believe the Badgers are good enough to beat the Bucks… even in Camp Randall. As for PSU, mark down three losses from the start to Bama, Iowa and OSU. There will likely be at least one more too.

Big 10 Sleeper –Northwestern is very well coached. They have great experience up front, which will help them to break in new starting QB and captain Dan Persa (of Liberty High School here in the Lehigh Valley). They do not play Ohio State and could easily enter November undefeated.

Pac 10 – This league is absolutely wide open. I have changed my mind on this pick seven different times. The only thing I’m sure of is that Washington State will still be lousy, and while Washington has talent, their schedule will keep them out of the picture for Pasadena. USC may end up with the best record, but they are banned from a bowl game. So, I’ll take Cal. They were my pick last year, and they failed to live up to expectations. Now, with less hype, and a manageable league slate, they’ll get that Rose Bowl bid.

Pac 10 Sleeper –Last year, I named Stanford my Pac 10 sleeper. As odd as this sounds, they’re still a sleeper. Most people think RB Toby Gerhart took their chances to Minnesota. QB Andrew Luck is very good, and Harbaugh may be coaching for the same position at his alma mater. Their first three Pac 10 games are @ UCLA, @ Oregon and USC. If they get thru that 2-1 or better, the game with Cal will be for the roses.

ACC Atlantic – The ACC is still very balanced. Clemson will be no push over, but this division comes down to the FSU-BC game which happens to be in Tallahassee. The Noles over-all schedule is tough with games versus BYU, Florida and Oklahoma. However, the ACC road schedule is cake. Jimbo Fisher makes the FSU brass look good with a league title.

ACC Coastal – Georgia Tech lost too much up front for me to believe the Yellow Jackets can go back-to-back with no passing game. UNC is loaded on defense, but the offense is questionable. Virginia Tech will be solid as always, but they play at UNC and at Miami. That leaves the Canes. If they win in Columbus on September 11^th, watch out.

ACC Sleeper –Picking a sleeper in the ACC is not easy. Outside of the top seven teams (any of which could win the league), the others are clear have nots. I’ll say Clemson just because they play their best when no one pays them any attention.

Big East –Pitt may have the best player in the country in RB Dion Lewis. They lack experience at QB, which makes a tough schedule very daunting. The Backyard Brawl will likely be for a BCS bid. The Mountaineers only play three league road games, and one of those is at Louisville (a team expected to be in the cellar). WVU has lots of experience. Expect them to give LSU a good game in late September in a tough road test.

Big East Sleeper – UConn may win this league outright. They have 16 starters back from a team that won 8 games despite the tragedy of losing a teammate to an on-campus murder midseason. They have both WVU and Pitt at home.

The Rest –While I do not think for a second that Boise State could run the table in ANY BCS conference, I believe with eight months to prepare, they will defeat a good but not great Virginia Tech team. After that, not much stands in the way of a perfect season. TCU will make another run at a BCS game, but I don’t believe they’ll be unbeaten again. As for Notre Dame, expect 8-9 wins. They only play three road games all season. They’ll be good offensively, and have 4-5 games they can win just by showing up.

BCS Championship Game – Alabama (SEC Champ) over Boise State (At-large)

Rose Bowl – Ohio State (Big 10 Champ) vs. California (Pac 10 Champ/Rep)

Sugar Bowl – Florida (At-large) vs. Iowa (At-large)

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ) vs. Pitt (Big East Champ)

Orange Bowl – Florida State (ACC Champ) vs. Texas (At-large)

Capital One Bowl – Wisconsin vs. Auburn

Outback Bowl – Penn State vs. South Carolina

Cotton Bowl – Nebraska vs. Arkansas

Gator Bowl – Northwestern vs. LSU

Chick-Fil-A Bowl – Georgia vs. Miami

Champ Sports Bowl – Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech

Games of the Week:

Pitt @ Utah – The Panthers brutal schedule (Utah, Miami and ND) starts fast with this Thursday night opener. RB Dion Lewis is worth watching any time the Panthers suit up. With QB Bill Stull gone, Pitt will need to grow up quick at QB. The Utes have experience on offense, but not on defense with only four starters returning. Look for a big night from Lewis leading to a Pitt win.

UConn @ Michigan – This is not an easy way to start a crucial year for Rich Rodriguez. UConn brings back 16 starters from a team that lost five games last year (all by 4 points or less). They won at Notre Dame and whipped South Carolina in their bowl game. Michigan’s defense is still in question, but their offense will move the ball and score points. I’ll take the Wolverines in a must win opener.

Boise State vs. Virginia Tech – This neutral site game will be played at Fedex Field Monday night. The Broncos have 20 starters back including QB Kellen Moore. The Hokies are a definite step up in opposition. Having 8 months to prepare for this is a big help for Boise. They can beat almost anyone in a one shot deal. If Boise can eliminate any big Beamer ball plays in special teams, I think they edge a talented but overrated Va Tech squad.