I DON’T WANT TO HEAR IT

October 28, 2009

As the regular season winds down, fans everywhere will start to campaign for their school or their conference. Higher rankings, bowl bids and most importantly, BCS berths will be the goals. As everyone tries to build themselves up by tearing others down, here are three arguments that won't fly with me.

Sure, they are undefeated, but they barely won last week. If it is so easy to have a perfect regular season, then why doesn’t it happen more often? Every team will play a bad game sooner or later. The great teams find ways to win anyway.

I was more impressed with Florida after the Arkansas game than I was after the win at LSU. With Tim Tebow still recovering from that wicked concussion and following the game everyone said was their biggest obstacle, they struggled. Even USC had trouble following up big wins the last two seasons. Last year, Penn State had a bye week after they finally won in Columbus, and they still keep out flat at Iowa. Great teams win, even when they aren’t great. They shouldn’t be penalized for win.

If Florida and Alabama are both unbeaten and the SEC Championship Game comes down to the end, they should play again in the BCS Final. No way! No how! No chance! I’ll throw every argument the SEC used in 2006 against an Ohio State-Michigan rematch right back in their faces. In 2006, I was completely against a rematch and would be again. If Michigan, who lost a very entertaining game by three didn’t deserve a rematch when they lost in Columbus, why would the loser here deserve one after losing on a neutral field?

I know I’ll hear the cry of, “Isn’t the job of the BCS to match the best two teams?” NO! The BCS is supposed to determine the most deserving teams!

There are 120 teams in FBS college football. Schools will only play 10% of the other teams out there. Why should the #1 team play someone they already defeated on a neutral field over a team from another conference that has not had their shot at them yet? If Florida and Alabama want to play for the national championship, beat the other for the SEC crown. If you don’t, enjoy Bourbon Street.

Notre Dame/Ohio State/Penn State doesn’t deserve a BCS bid over unbeaten Boise State. Once the two teams are determined for the national championship game, the bowls are trying to sell tickets, fill hotel rooms and draw people to the TV. Rules are in place so Notre Dame or a team that is not a league champ must meet certain requirements in order to be chosen for the BCS. Would you honestly rather watch Alabama play Boise State over Notre Dame? Me neither.

Games of the Week:

Florida v. Georgia (in Jacksonville) – This is one of the most overrated rivalries in college football. The Gators have won nine of the last eleven meetings and 16 of the previous 19. It’s a great party with history, but honestly, the game hasn’t been that compelling for years. That being said, the Gators offense has been stuck in neutral since #15 was knocked out in Lexington. Let’s see if they put on a show the way they did last year. I feel one coming. The Gators lock up the SEC East on Saturday.

USC @ Oregon – The Ducks would have to lose three of their last four games to send USC back to the Rose Bowl. The later we get into the season, the more USC will gel. This is the best shot the conference still has to send someone else to Pasadena. The Ducks have done a complete 180 since they left the blue turf of BoiseIowa game films. opening night. QB Jeremiah Masoli will need a big game. The Ducks defense will need a bigger game. I think they win a close one and start watching Iowa game films.

Texas @ Oklahoma State – OSU is 2-21 all-time against the Longhorns. To make matters worse, Texas has a habit of spotting the Cowboys a sizable lead and still escaping Stillwater with a win. Last time here in 2007, OSU was up 21-0 and lost 38-35 after allowing 24 fourth quarter points. Then there’s the time in Austin when Vince Young erased a 35-7 deficit for a 56-35 triumph. One year ago, on this very weekend, Texas fell to Texas Tech. Colt McCoy and company will be ready. This will be a four quarter game, but the Longhorns stay perfect.

Upset Alert – Penn State @ Northwestern – In August, I called this the mother of all trap games. PSU travels to Evanston the week after Michigan and the week before Ohio State. The last four meetings in Evanston were decided by an average of five points per game. Also, PSU is 2-9 in their 2^nd consecutive road game. (See Iowa last year, Illinois ’07, Wisconsin ’06, Minnesota ’05… just to name a few) I think PSU wins, but for some reason, NW always seems to be able to score plenty of points on the Lions when they get them at home. In fact, outside of their first year in the Big Ten, the Lions have either lost in Evanston or won by one score.

THEN THERE WERE 4

October 21, 2009

The first BCS rankings of the 2009 season were released this week. Even with six Saturdays remaining in the regular season, I believe only four teams have a realistic shot at playing for the crystal football in Pasadena.

We may as well call the SEC Championship Game what it is, a semifinal. Florida and Alabama appear to be on a collision course. The Gators would have to lose at least two of their remaining four league games to not win the East. Bama’s only serious threat is LSU, who would need a win in Tuscaloosa and still defeat Auburn, ArkansasAtlanta on December 5^th will put the league champ into the BCS Final. and Ole Miss to claim the West. Even if both teams stumble in the regular season, a win in

There’s no question that if Texas wins out, they’ll finish in the top 2 and face the SEC Champ. The Longhorns have looked vulnerable at times. They were totally outplayed in the first half by Oklahoma, but too many Sooner mistakes allowed them to stay in the game. Texas will play four road games yet this year plus the Big 12 title game at a neutral site. Should Mack Brown’s team lose once but still claim the league title, the door will swing open for USC.

I know the Trojans are currently seventh in the BCS. However, if they win out, they will easily leap past Iowa, Cincinnati and Boise State. Throw in a Texas loss and they finally face the SEC Champ to end the year. An 11-1 USC team with road wins over Ohio State, Cal, Notre Dame and Oregon may even have a more impressive resume than a one-loss SEC Champ.

I realize there are four other unbeaten teams in the top ten. Boise State and TCU will only lose points the rest of the year thanks to their remaining schedule. Neither team will get any consideration for the title game even if they stay perfect and everyone else falters. Boise State struggled with Tulsa, a team Oklahoma beat 38-0 with its back-up QB.

Cincinnati is the new kid to the dance. They are making an effort to play a tough non-league schedule, but they have not beaten anyone of note. Oklahoma ran them out of Norman last year, and Va Tech handled them in the Orange Bowl. Simply winning the Big East, a league some believe to be inferior to the Mountain West, won’t bump out a one-loss Florida, Alabama, Texas or USC.

That brings us to Iowa. After all the embarrassment the Big Ten has had over the last three years in the BCS, I don’t believe a boring Iowa team that struggled with Northern Iowa and Arkansas State will be ushered into Pasadena. Even at 12-0, they will be idle for two weeks while other teams have a chance to reclaim one of the top two spots.

Miami has an outside shot. They have the name and reputation to garner enough respect in the polls. The problem is they are already down at #10. Plus, their wins over FSU and Oklahoma are looking less impressive by the week.

Mark it down. The SEC Champ will play Texas or USC for the crown. The other contenders just don’t have the cache to jump them, even if they all lose.

Games of the Week:

Penn State @ Michigan – The Wolverines turned some heads with a 4-0 start. However, after two conference losses, their list of victims seems less impressive. Tate Forcier is going to be a headache for PSU and the rest of the Big Ten for the next few years. Once Michigan starts to play defense the way Michigan teams usually do, Rich Rod will find himself in sunny California. PSU’s season could go either way right now. Win here and the league crown is within reach. Lose in Ann Arbor for the sixth straight time, and a four-loss season is a distinct possibilty. Losing Stephfon Green will hurt, but I believe PSU’s defense gets the Big House monkey off their back.

Oregon State @ USC – The Beavers have won two of the last three meetings with the Trojans. Last year’s game followed the showdown with Ohio State. This year, Washington took advantage of a USC letdown. This year, Pete Carroll’s team is coming off a tough win in South Bend and has a trip to Oregon looming next week. Jacquizz Rodgers gave USC fits last year. The Beavers will be a handful, but I expect the Trojans to survive… for now.

TCU @ BYU – If the Horned Frogs want to be in the BCS, they have no margin for error. Should they win out, they will likely jump Boise State and either head to the Fiesta or Orange Bowl. BYU and QB Max Hall saw their BCS dreams go up in smoke with their loss to FSU. Last year, it was TCU who crushed the Cougars BCS dreams. I said in the preseason that Boise State would crash the BCS party because the MWC teams would beat up on each other. Expect the Cougars to clear the way for the Broncos with a win Saturday night in Provo.

Upset Alert – Boston College @ Notre Dame – The Irish put up a great fight last week and went down swinging against USC. That game was supposed to announce to the nation that ND was back among the elite. When you put so much emphasis on a regular season game, win or lose, the next game becomes even tougher. Just think back to the 1993 season. ND edges FSU in the battle for #1 then falls at home to BC seven days later. Now, BC has won six straight in this series. If Notre Dame isn’t ready to go from the opening kickoff, they’ll be playing from behind all day.

THE MEASURING STICK

October 14, 2009

Walk into any home with small children, and you will see the marks. You will normally find them on a door frame. These little slashes tell anyone who walks by how much each child has grown over time. In some cases, a child may be measured in this fashion every few months. The norm is to perform this little ritual once a year on their birthday. That way mother and father can say, “See how much you’ve grown over the past year?”

This Saturday in South Bend, Indiana, Charlie Weis steps back up to the doorway. His critics are anxiously waiting there with their markers to see just how much the Irish have grown since last season. The measuring stick is in town. That measuring stick is USC.

Those in power in South Bend are growing restless. The return to glory that seemed so imminent after back-to-back trips to the BCS has not come. They look at the Trojans and say, “That used to be us.” They are right.

Notre Dame was once the program in college football. A high school football player knew he was elite when the Fighting Irish wanted him to wear that gold helmet. Now, those same elite players look west. They look to the warm weather and glitz of Southern California. They look to Pete Carroll. They look to the song girls. They look to USC.

So many Irish rooters felt they had their man in 2005. In Weis’s first year, he beat Michigan in Ann Arbor and lost a classic to the Trojans, now best remembered for the “Bush Push.” Since then, support for Weis has waned year by year.

As USC, continues to compete for national championships year in and year out, the Irish have been out of the hunt for #1 since 1993. To make matters worse, the Trojans haven’t simply beaten Notre Dame seven straight times. With the 2005 exception, they’ve dominated the Golden Domers. The combined score the last two years alone has been 76-3. Last season, Notre Dame failed to get a first down until the final play of the third quarter.

USC has had better coaching and better athletes. Even the staunchest ND supporter would say the current Trojans are still more athletic, but now the Irish have Jimmy Clausen. The golden boy that turned down the Trojans is starting to hear his name and Heisman thrown around in the same sentence.

The Irish offense is potent. The Trojans are starting a true freshman QB. The game is in South Bend. All of those factors added together have lead to optimism in South Bend this time.

I don’t believe Charlie Weis has to win this game to keep his job. However, he cannot afford to lose another laugher. When Notre Dame went 3-9 in 2007, Irish defenders said over and over, “Give them time. They’re all freshman and sophomores. Ty left the cupboard bare.” The 4-1 start is nice. The team has found ways to win with close calls over Michigan State, Purdue and Washington. Beat the Trojans or even lose valiantly, and you can call this progress. Get run off the field again, and you suddenly appear to be lucky you aren’t 1-5.

How much has changed since last year? We find out Saturday when little Charlie steps up to the door frame to be measured.

Games of the Week:

Oklahoma vs. Texas – This game lost a little luster when BYU knocked Sam Bradford out for a month, and in his absence, BYU and Miami combined to knock OU out of the national title hunt. It is still a bowl game in mid-season. It is a neutral site game with half the fans in burnt orange and the other half in crimson. The Longhorns have to weather the early storm. They have been a 2^nd half team all year turning close calls with Wyoming and Colorado into laughers by outscoring each 28-0 after halftime. There’s no question OU is more tested coming into this game, but the Longhorn vets have been just waiting for this Saturday to explode. I’ll take Texas to remain perfect.

USC @ Notre Dame – USC is playing a rivalry game on the road with a freshman QB starting, and they are still a 10 point favorite. Even Charlie Weiss is playing up how big this is for the program (i.e. him). The Irish need a strong showing. I think they get it. I picked them to win this game in the pre-season. The closer it gets, the more I think USC just has too much for them. Both teams have had two weeks to prepare. I’m expecting a moral victory by ND, but the USC D will be too much.

Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech – The Hokies have jumped back into consideration for the national title game. Ga Tech has bounced back nicely since their stumble at Miami. The ground game is dominating again after steam rolling FSU. Last year, this game was earlier in the season and the Hokies prevailed 20-17. The Yellow Jackets rushing attack is impressive, but Virginia Tech is the more complete team. I see another Hokie win.

Upset Alert – Wake Forest @ Clemson – The Tigers season is jumping the tracks again. Here we are in mid-October, and Clemson has lost three times, twice in conference and is coming off a bad loss to Maryland. The Deacons were my pre-season ACC Sleeper. They have two three-point losses and sit atop the Atlantic Division. The Wake offense is clicking behind senior QB Riley Skinner. Look for Wake to take another step toward a berth in the ACC Final.

LESSONS LEARNED

October 8, 2009

Five college football Saturdays are behind us. Nine more lie ahead. Here are a few lessons we’ve learned so far this season.

1. Cincinnati is becoming the premier program in the Big East. The Bearcats have won 10 or more games the last two years. This year, they are 5-0 with three road wins (at Rutgers, Oregon State and Miami, OH). After winning the Big East’s BCS bid and finishing the ’08 season in the Orange Bowl, Cincy lost 10 defensive starters to graduation, and they still look like the class of the conference. In fact, one week ago, collegefootballnews.com was projecting them as Florida’s opponent in the BCS Championship game this January.

Brian Kelly is getting noticed on the national scene, which could lead to the program’s downfall if they can’t keep him.

Cincinnati also deserves credit for the schedule they play. They have faced Oregon State, Oklahoma, Ohio State and Penn State over the previous four seasons. In the next three years, they’ll battle OU and OSU again as well as Miami, Virginia Tech and Tennessee.

2. Cal is the Clemson of the west coast. The Clemson Tigers have a reputation for surprising college football fans. When the chips are down, they rise up and knock somebody off. When they are ranked high and expected to do great things, they fall flatter than Bob Stoops in the BCS. The Bears have two double-digit win seasons this decade. They are just dangerous enough to beat a top ranked team when no one notices them beforehand. However, shine a spotlight on this program that has gone 50 years without a trip to Pasadena, and they shrink faster than the Baton Rouge chapter of the Nick Saban fan club. The Bears were 6^th in the nation after three games. Now, they are unranked after being outscored 72-6 by Oregon and USC. Better make that 51 years with no Rose Bowls.

3. Jimmy Clausen is a big time quarterback. Through five games this year, Clausen has completed 67.6% of his passes for 1,544 yards, 12 TDs and 2INTs. His QB rating of 179.3 leads the nation, and so does his 10.43 yards per attempt. I know what you are saying. Those are just numbers. That’s true. The mark of a great QB is the ability to be great when it matters most. At Michigan, down 31-20 in the 4^th quarter, he led two scoring drives to go ahead before the Irish defense let him down. Throw in do-or-die drives against Purdue and Washington, and we can officially call him clutch.

4. Tim Tebow is human. The Gators say Tim Tebow is a game-time decision for Saturday’s showdown with LSU. The hit that knocked Superman out of the Kentucky game was as nasty a shot as I’ve seen in years on the college gridiron. After speaking with Lafayette Head Coach Frank Tavani this week, (a man that’s been around more than one concussion in his day) I can’t see Tebow playing. While Coach Tavani admits he is no doctor and has not seen any scans or x-rays on the Gator QB, the on-field symptoms are the key. He was knocked cold and was vomiting on the sideline. “Those are symptoms of a grade three concussion,” Tavani said, “which normally means about four weeks.” Not two.

Games of the Week:

Florida @ LSU – Considering Tebow’s back-up John Brantley broke his Florida high school records, he’s still worth watching if Superman can’t go Saturday night. These two schools have won the last three BCS Championships and four of the last six. LSU sophomore QB Jordan Jefferson is coming into his own after leading not one, but two go-ahead TD drives in the final five minutes at Georgia last week. If Tebow were healthy, I’d take the Gators. Without him, I think the Tigers hand them their first loss. Would that mean Brantley has to give “the speech” this year?

Alabama @ Mississippi – The Rebels have lost five straight to Bama and 13 of the last 15. Last year, the Crimson Tide led 24-3 at halftime and held on for a 24-20 victory. This is the biggest game in Oxford since Eli Manning led Ole Miss against LSU in November 2003. That one ended with a 17-14 Tiger victory that all but ended the Rebels hopes for a spot in the SEC Championship game. Different QB, different opponent, but the same story. Bama’s defense will be too much.

Boston College @ Virginia Tech – These two have played four times the last two seasons with two meetings coming in the ACC Championship game. BC has won both regular season contests, with the Hokies claiming the league crown and subsequent BCS bid each year. After falling at Clemson, the Eagles have responded with wins over Wake Forest and FSU. BC freshman QB Dave Shinskie has taken the job from Justin Tuggle and responded with five TD passes and only one INT over the last two Saturdays. Winning at home is one thing. Winning on the road is another. Winning in Blacksburg is something else, and winning in Blacksburg with a freshman QB is just not happening. I’ll take the Hokies with another rematch coming in December.

Upset Alert – Auburn @ Arkansas – The Hogs are 2-2, but they have scored 40 or more points in three of their four games this season. The Tigers (my pre-season SEC sleeper) are unbeaten. Their first road game was last week, a 26-22 win at Tennessee. Any college football coach will tell you how tough it is to win on the road. It’s even harder to do it on consecutive Saturdays. Watch for the Hogs to put up too many points for Auburn to keep up.

NOT THEN, NOT NOW

October 1, 2009

So, Penn State is not going to play for the national championship this year. For some reason, this comes as a surprise to a bunch of PSU fans. However, it should really surprise no one.

Prior to the season, I predicted a two-loss Nittany Lion squad in 2009. That prognostication was based on the track record of the program, and to be completely honest, I was being optimistic. Let’s re-examine the signs.

I will not try to claim Penn State’s schedule is tougher than it looks. I’ll be honest. It’s embarrassing. We all know the Big Ten is down right now. Looking at past PSU teams, you’ll see Penn State still only has one perfect Big Ten season in their 16 years in the league. Forget the eight-game league schedule, the Lions have only gone 4-0 on the road once in league play. Expecting a team with 12 new starters to go unscathed away from Beaver Stadium is simply unrealistic. Conference games are tough no matter what league you compete in. Just ask USC.

“We don’t rebuild. We reload.” I’ve seen that on t-shirts in State College for years. I refuse to buy one because that is a Penn State myth. In State College, the rebuilding projects aren’t from the ground up, but there is at least a year or two of remodeling that goes on in between runs at national honors.

How many times can you recall Penn State competing for a national championship in consecutive years? The few times it has occurred, the squad returned virtually intact. In fact, the last time PSU won the national championship, there were 15 fifth-year seniors on the team.

Joe Paterno’s philosophy since he arrived at Penn State is that you should be able to compete for the national title every three or four years. For the most part, that trend has survived his entire tenure. PSU went unbeaten in ’68, ’69 and ’73, played for the title in ’78 and won it in ’82 and ’86 The Lions finished ’91 #3, went unbeaten in ’94 and were 9-0 in ’99 when they had their famous collapse. They lost three times in 2002 (twice in OT) and won the Big Ten in 2005 and 2008.

The reason for that timeline is Joe knows that you can’t get the same talent at PSU every year as you can at USC or Texas. I love State College, but it is a small, rural, undiversified town in the middle of nowhere with brutal weather. How many stud athletes are going to choose that over Miami or Los Angeles or Austin? Or for that matter Columbus? The weather may be similar, but it’s a big city. No major sports league is considering putting a franchise in State College.

Can Penn State get elite players? Sure. Can they defeat elite teams? Absolutely. Will they ever get the same talent as those schools? Not a chance. Some schools just have built in advantages and perks that PSU will never have.

On the upside, the 1996 Nittany Lions had lost four starters on the offensive line and both wide receivers to the draft. They ended the regular season 10-2 and went to the Fiesta Bowl. They even lost at home to Iowa, so maybe there’s hope for this season after all.

Games of the Week:

Oklahoma @ Miami – After getting drubbed 31-7 by Va Tech, it’s pretty obvious the Canes return to glory is at least another season away. They are improved. Maybe even enough to reach the BCS, but not the title game. The Sooners had been written off after their week one loss to BYU. Win out, and “Big Game Bob” may get another shot at Florida. With Landry Jones starting at QB for at least another week, the Sooners are vulnerable. I could see this one going either way, but I’ll take the Sooners. Stoops wins big games… that aren’t played in January.

USC @ Cal – What in the world happened to Cal? I knew winning in Autzen Stadium wouldn’t be easy, but I thought the Bears would at least show up. I still believe they win this game. USC continues to struggle to score points, and the Trojans have scored 23, 24 and 17 in their last three meetings with the Bears. Cal can still end up in Pasadena for the first time in 50 years, but only if they win here. I think they do.

LSU @ Georgia – LSU survived a trip to Starkville last week with a goal line stand. Georgia, on the other hand, has survived three straight scares. After struggling to score in Stillwater, the Dawgs offense came alive in two SEC shootout wins. With the Gators looming next week for the Tigers, I’ll take Georgia at home to go to 3-0 in league play.

Upset Alert – South Florida @ Syracuse – I was surprised USF won in Tallahassee. I was even more surprised they won with a back-up QB. It was the biggest win in the program’s history. Now they go on the road to play an improved Syracuse team. The Orange have won two straight and are hungry to show they are not the same Big East doormat. It’s hard to follow up a huge road win like the Bulls had with a road win in conference play. They have been a horrible road team the last few years. I think they’ll have their hands full Saturday.