THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...

September 26, 2012

...the more they stay the same. That should be the new mantra of the upcoming four team playoff in college football. Don’t get me wrong. I am very excited about the playoff aspect. In fact, as you can see from this link, http://www.collegefootballsvoiceofreason.blogspot.com/2009/08/four-is-all-i-need.html, I called for this three years ago.

The playoff aspect isn’t the problem. The problem is that while everyone is enjoying the current season knowing that things will get infinitely better in two shorts years, they have missed out on the ramifications of some recent announcements.

First of all, conferences continue to sign deals with major bowls. This is locking in at least one if not two teams from the five major conferences. I was surprised to hear that since the ACC Champion has a deal with the Orange Bowl, if the Orange Bowl is a semifinal, the ACC champ must be chosen for the bowl rotation regardless of ranking. That sounds an awful lot like an automatic qualifying conference. In fact, with the Big 10-Pac 12 Rose Bowl deal and the SEC-Big 12 Champions Bowl pact, you have five conferences that are still guaranteed a spot in the bowl rotation.

It all sounded so perfect originally. There will be six bowls involved. Two will be semifinals. The other four will pit other high ranked teams. There will be three games on New Year’s Eve and three on New Year’s Day, and semifinals will be split to one per day. 

Now we have plenty of conference deals, and even a seventh bowl in the mix. Why? The highest rated champion from the Big East, MWC, Conference USA, MAC and Sun Belt needs a game. 

Wasn’t this the issue with the BCS? They added more games. They watered down the match-ups. They by-passed better teams from one conference to get teams from a power conference. Remember the Sugar Bowl last year between Michigan and Virginia Tech? 

We are heading down that road again. Will the committee that selects teams for the non-playoff bowls give open bids to deserving teams? If so, how many openings will there be? Looking at this year’s current rankings, we are already looking at #19 Louisville being guaranteed a spot, as well as #17 Clemson. 

The upside (besides a better system to determine a champion) is that actually lifting the cap on two teams maximum per conference. In the current system, Georgia at number five would be passed over. I just hope it will finally be about giving us some good match-ups as opposed to spreading the bids to less deserving leagues.

If the system were in place this year, here is how the seven games may look.

Semifinal #1 (in Cowboys Stadium) - Alabama vs. Florida State

Semifinal #2 (in Georgia Dome) - Oregon vs. LSU

Rose Bowl - Nebraska vs. Stanford

Sugar Bowl - Georgia vs. Kansas State

Orange Bowl - Clemson vs. Notre Dame

Fiesta Bowl - Louisville vs. Oklahoma

Added Bowl (likely in Houston) - South Carolina vs. West Virginia

Here is how the current bowls would look this year.

BCS Championship - Alabama vs. Oregon

Rose Bowl - Nebraska vs. Stanford

Sugar Bowl - LSU vs. Texas

Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State vs. Notre Dame

Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Louisville

Games of the Week:

Stanford @ Washington - A great game kicks off the weekend on Thursday night. The Cardinal have won three straight in Seattle including 41-0 in 2010. Last year, Stanford embarrassed the Huskies 65-21.Washington junior QB Keith Price is dangerous. He will test the Cardinal defense in ways that Matt Barkley did not. Stanford has been hearing how great they are for 12 days. I think this will be close, but the Stanford D will be up to the task. I like Stanford 26-21. 

Tennessee @ Georgia -The statement game for the Vols was looking good for three quarters against Florida... then came the 4th quarter, and the wheels came off. Now, the Vols are labeled as a dangerous offensive team that still can’t beat the elite of the SEC. The good news is they get another chance here to open some eyes. Georgia is legit. Aaron Murray is an experienced signal caller. Georgia’s D got four players back from suspension recently. They are a legit threat to LSU and Alabama for SEC supremacy. I think it’s a Dawg kind of day. Georgia wins 28-14.

Ohio State @ Michigan State - This is how slow a week it is. I’m taking a Big Ten game. The Buckeyes (although not eligible for the post-season) may be the league’s most talented team. They have not been overly impressive the last two weeks as they struggled with Cal and UAB. The Spartans were shut down by Notre Dame two weeks ago and followed that up by getting a scare from Eastern Michigan. OSU has won three straight in East Lansing by an average score of 38-11. Defenses should dominate because I’m not sure either team can move the ball thru the air. I think the Buckeyes survive 21-19. 

WHAT I KNOW

September 18, 2012

We are three weeks into the season. Don’t be fooled by the national experts. It is possible to learn a few things from these early season games. Here is a list of a few things I know, some things I think I know and a couple things I can’t figure out.

What I know - 

1. The Big Ten isn’t very good. I don’t think you needed me to tell you that, but in case you are wavering on this at all, here is the evidence. The Big Ten’s best wins so far are over Boise State, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Boston College and Cal. Three of those wins came from Northwestern. The bad losses are too numerous to list here. They only undefeated team left in the league (Ohio State) is ineligible for the postseason. 
2. If he hadn’t landed (bought) Cam Newton, Gene Chizik would be coaching his final games at Auburn. Remember everyone laughing at Auburn when they hired a guy from Iowa State who had gone 5-19 in two years? You likely forgot after the 2010 title season. His other years at Auburn, Chizik has gone 7-5 (3-5 in SEC), 7-5 (with a miracle comeback against Utah State) and is already 1-2 this year. I’d say he owes his salary to Cam, but I think Newton has been paid enough.
3. If Penn State avoids a losing record, it will be due to the #1 thing I know listed above. They have a walk-on at QB, started three different guys at TB (including a walk on and the FB), have no kicker, no punter and lack any depth in the secondary. It is a good year for PSU to be in the Big Ten.

What I think I know - 

1. This is the most talented Notre Dame team in at least six years. They may finish with the same record they had a year ago, but the Irish are much improved in the front seven. They look strong up front defensively, and unlike last year, they aren’t beating themselves with turnovers. If they can make Denard Robinson beat them with his arm, (and their DBs actually turn and look for the ball, unlike last year) they can be 4-0.
2. Florida may challenge for more than the SEC East this year. No one has better back-to-back wins than the Gators beating Texas A&M and Tennessee on the road. One peek at the schedule, and you will see they only leave the state once more this year to play Vanderbilt. I expect them to give LSU a great game in the Swamp on October 6.
3. Even though Alabama and LSU may be the two best teams in the country again, there is no way the voters will give us another rematch. If the winner of their game is the lone unbeaten, and the loser has no other losses, one could argue for a rematch. However, there is no way voters give us that a second time... right?

What I can’t figure out - 

1. How in the world has Kentucky become (at best) the 3rd best college football team in their own state? I realize they are a basketball school. I also realize they don’t have a long winning tradition, but they are an SEC team. They can’t field a decent team by simply asking a recruit, “Want to play in the SEC?” Maybe once in a while, Louisville can put together a team to challenge you, but how do you lose at home to the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky? I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt that they could beat Eastern Kentucky.
2. Is Colorado the worst BCS conference team of the BCS era? It is easy to say no. Duke’s 0-12 squad in 2006 has to be in the conversation, but take a look at the Buffs’ resume. Losing by one score to an in-state rival like CSU isn’t horrible. Since then, they lost at home to Sacramento State of the Big Sky Conference. Last week, they was crushed 69-14 by mighty Fresno State. With only league games left, 0-12 is looking very real. It is hard to compare teams from different leagues and different years. Honestly, these teams are so bad, I prefer not to dwell on this question.
3. Who is the best first year coach in the Pac 12? Arizona, ASU and UCLA are a combined 8-1 with wins over Illinois, Oklahoma State and Nebraska. The lone defeat? A 24-20 defeat at Missouri. All three teams are opening eyes. Time will tell, who is the best. As of today, I can’t tell between Rodriguez, Graham and Mora. Stay tuned.

Games of the Week:

Clemson @ Florida State - I could have included “how good is Florida State” in my list of things I haven’t figured out. They have dominated two FCS schools and Wake Forest. Clemson has a win over Auburn, but how good are they? This one should tell us a lot about both teams. The home team is 9-1 in the last ten meetings. FSU looks great defensively, and I think that has more to do with their talent than with their opponents. It is in Tallahassee. I think the Noles win 24-10.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma -The Wildcats are riding high at 3-0. A win here by KSU and they should be 6-0 when they go to Morgantown on October 20. The Sooners have won five straight in this series by an average of 22 points per game. Before the season began, many people (myself included) considered OU a national title contender. An opening week struggle with UTEP caused some to abandon ship. I think Oklahoma is primed to jump back into the BCS Title talk. I like the Sooners 34-24.

Arizona @ Oregon - The Ducks have won four straight in this Pac 12 series, but both teams have put points on the board. The average score of those games has been 51-37. Arizona is 3-0 with an impressive 59-38 thumping of Oklahoma State. Rich Rodriguez’s team can score, but we all know the Ducks can too. The game is at Autzen Stadium. If you plan on staying up on the east coast to watch this one, you may see the sun rise. My prediction... points... Oregon 52-44. 

ND TO THE ACC

September 12, 2012

Expansion is back. Sort of. Notre Dame has joined the ACC. Kind of. The ACC is now a stable conference that does not have to worry about losing teams to other leagues. We think.

The Fighting Irish will join the ACC for all sports outside of football and hockey. Some have questioned the ACC for allowing ND to once again dictate the terms of league affiliation. It is worth noting the same deal was on the table from the Big 12.  It is also worth noting that being affiliated with Notre Dame is not a bad thing. The Big Ten and the SEC make enough money and receive enough national exposure that making a similar style of pact with Notre Dame is not worthwhile. 

There are some aspects of this announcement I believe are being overblown, and others I believe are being glossed over.

Fans hear that Notre Dame will be eligible for ACC bowl tie-ins “outside the BCS,” and they respond with, “Who cares about those bowls?” There’s a major difference between the Big East tie-ins that ND had previously and what they have now. The Irish are eligible for the Chick-Fil-A Bowl to potentially play an SEC team. That bowl in itself is light years ahead of what the Big East has. 

The part I think is being overblown in this story is the schedule. Notre Dame has agreed to play five games against ACC teams each year. The public has assumed there will be a few traditional games dropped from their annual schedule. However, if you look at their current schedule, Notre Dame is playing Miami, Wake Forest, Boston College and Pitt (the Panthers are joining the ACC). That tells me there may be a minor tweak to their schedule annually, but it does not mean they are replacing Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue with Clemson, Maryland and NC State. Expect them to play fewer Big Ten teams every year, but they won’t drop those games completely.

As for the stability of the league, the $50 million exit fee announced today was clearly a warning shot to any other conference that may have eyes on a current ACC school. Within hours of the Notre Dame announcement, folks at Florida State were complaining about the new exit fee. Even if that remains the cost of leaving, the SEC will be launching a billion dollar TV network in a couple of years. If they really want to get to 16 teams, I still think they will make it happen.

The final aspect of this deal that has puzzled some is that they will have 15 basketball teams and seem fine with it. There are two reasons this makes sense to me. First of all, remember that the ACC played with nine teams from the time Florida State joined in 1991 until Miami and Virginia Tech were added in 2004. Playing with an odd number of teams is not foreign to them. 

Plus, leaving the number of teams at 15, keeps the door open for the future. This makes it pretty clear that if the day finally comes when Notre Dame decides it would be more beneficial for its football program to be in a conference, they will be joining the ACC. So, rather than add Villanova or Georgetown in basketball to get to 16, why not stay at 15 until the Irish want to go all in? Then you can choose the best fit for your 16th school in all sports.

This seems like a win win for both sides to me.

Games of the Week:

Florida @ Tennessee - Last week the Gators spoiled the party in College Station. Can they play party pooper again? The Vols are 2-0. They are healthy. They are hungry. They are at home. They need this. UT Head Coach Derek Dooley reallllllly needs this. Florida has won the last seven meetings with the last five all decided by double digits. I like the Vols to pull this one out. They have their work cut out the rest of the year, but at least on this day, they’ll finally “sing Rocky Top all night long.” UT wins 27-23.

Notre Dame @ Michigan State -The Spartans are the Big Ten’s last hope. The rest of the league has been an embarrassment in non-league play. The MSU defense is being described by some as the best outside of the SEC. Notre Dame has experience and always seems to play well in East Lansing. Last year, MSU was held to a season low of 29 yards rushing. Sparty will control the line of scrimmage and control the game. I expect an MSU win 26-17.

USC @ Stanford - It is easy to dismiss the Cardinal without Andrew Luck. After a rough opening week against San Jose State. Stanford bounced back to beat Duke handily 50-13. There is no question the USC offense is as potent as any in the nation. However, last weekend against Syracuse, their defense showed its vulnerability surrendering 27 first downs and 455 total yards. I think the Trojans will win behind Matt Barkley, but it won’t be a rout. I say USC 42-31.

IT’S ON YOU NOW

September 4, 2012

It started as shock. That shock soon turned into despair and finally to anger. 

Penn State supporters were on an emotional roller coaster for months. The ride seems to be slowing down. Now it appears to be mostly anger at the NCAA, the Big Ten, the Board of Trustees and anyone else they feel has mislabeled or misrepresented who they are and what they stand for. 

They are tired of having to apologize for their diplomas. Their blood boils at the suggestion that they were partially to blame for what had led to the downfall of one of the nation’s most respected programs.

After the NCAA dropped the hammer on Nittany Lion football, the program was written off by the rest of the nation. “It will take at least a decade before they can even think about being competitive again,” some said. Others thought the penalties weren’t harsh enough. “Beaver Stadium will soon be a ghost town,” pundits proclaimed.

That was the first rallying point. Over three thousand fans gathered in the early morning hours of a late July morning to cheer on players arriving for workouts. The message was clear. No matter how horrible the previous nine months had been, no matter how heavy the sanctions were from the NCAA and the Big Ten, the Nittany Lion faithful were going to proudly support this team. It was an impressive showing. The players were blown away by the number of fans that greeted them.

Saturday’s season opener brought a new era. It was time to come together as family again. It was time to show the players that stayed you had their back. Was it a sellout? No. However, the announced crowd was larger than the season opener in 2011 against Indiana State.

The atmosphere at Beaver Stadium had transformed in recent years into one of the loudest and most intimidating venues in the country. The fans impacted the game. Now, those same fans will impact the program itself.

There is a distinct possibility this program will not have a winning season for a while. Losing to Ohio last week, makes a 4-8 year (or worse) a strong possibility considering the lack of depth on the 2012 team. The immediate future of Penn State football lies as much in the stands as it does on the field, if not more.

As of this moment, Coach Bill O’Brien has been able to keep some key members of the next recruiting class committed to the program. A few have changed their mind in the wake of the sanctions, but not all. I do not believe a couple more losses than originally expected are going to scare them away. They have spoken of restoring the program. They expect to play and contribute. Losing to Ohio or Navy or even Indiana doesn’t change that... I don’t think.

Bill O’Brien says the coaching staff will be the same. The education will be the same. The facilities will be the same. The biggest change that could occur over the next few seasons that would alter the perception of what Penn State football is now would be the support. If those same recruits that today are saying all the right things about looking forward to playing in front of the best fans in the nation start seeing more and more empty seats in Beaver Stadium, how committed will they be?

It is on the fans. The same ones who have said, “we are a family.” They’ve filled Beaver Stadium as the Lions finished off their fourth losing season in five years earlier this decade. With no championship to play for, no bowl game to look forward to and the potential for dwindling talent and mounting losses, will Penn State still draw 100,000 fans? 

I have said on the air that I think the PSU fans get too much credit for the Beaver Stadium atmosphere. They garnered that reputation after big games on national TV. For a noon game against someone other than Ohio State or Michigan, the student section is half filled at kickoff, and that doesn’t even change for senior days. 

There was great support at the Ohio game as fans stood by the players that remained at Penn State. That same support is needed for every home game for the next four years plus. If that happens, the “best fans in the nation” title will be deserved. Not even the Voice of Reason will debate it.

Games of the Week:

Florida @ Texas A&M - SEC football officially comes to College Station, TX. The Gators struggled in week one with a 27-14 win over Bowling Green. Florida managed just 14 first downs and was awful in short yardage situations. The Aggies will be playing their first game. The opener with Louisiana Tech was postponed due to Isaac. Kyle Field will be rocking. Even without Ryan Tannehill, I think the Aggies get off to a great start in their new league. I like Texas A&M 21-17.

Georgia @ Missouri - I still find it odd that Missouri is in the SEC East, but there they are. This divisional game is also the league debut for the Tigers. Unlike Florida, the Bulldogs are set at QB with Aaron Murray leading the charge. Georgia was my pre-season pick to win the SEC East. They have the experience they need to win a road game like this in a hostile environment. I like Georgia in a close one 31-27.

Nebraska @ UCLA - The ground games here are what to watch, and both QBs can score from anywhere. The Bruins scored on their first snap last week when Brett Hundley went 72 yards for a score. He also threw for 202 yards, and Johnathan Franklin rushed for 214 yards. The Huskers are led by Taylor Martinez at QB. Martinez is a threat to run, but last week against Southern Miss proved he was dangerous through the air compiling 354 yards and 5 TDs. I think Nebraska is more physical. I will take Big Red 30-24.