RANDOM THOUGHTS ON THE NITTANY LIONS

I normally have one focused subject each week. This time I realized I have a bunch of thoughts about the state of the Nittany Lions as they begin conference play. Here they are in no particular order.

Both QBs really miss Brett Brackett. I never thought I’d say that about a guy that only saw significant time his senior year, but he was a possession receiver with good size and great hands. I don’t recall too many times this year when a WR bailed out McGloin or Bolden with a great catch.

Silas Redd is going to be fun to watch. The real pleasant surprise is that Beachum and Dukes have looked strong too. Even without Stephfon Green, this is the deepest PSU TB group since when? LJ, Easy and McCoo? Enis, Archie and Pitts?

As for the quarterbacks, McGloin was just what the team needed last year. They were young and tentative. He brought a swagger that got them a few victories they wouldn’t have had otherwise. This year they need a QB. ONE QB. I thought Bolden was the guy to get the job. He has a higher ceiling than McGloin, but I can’t make that argument now. He has been outplayed the last two weeks. Although, after charting all pass plays last week, it is clear that McGloin has benefited from play-calling. Last week, three of his first four passes were play action. Three of Bolden’s first four were screens and a five-yard out pattern. McGloin was asked to throw on third down three times, none of which was longer than 3rd and five. Still, McGloin has moved the offense better and deserves more time.

The defense is light years ahead of where they were last season. They are confident and aggressive. Last year, they looked slow and unsure of themselves. It didn’t help that the few play makers they had battled injuries. Hopefully, the loss of Mauti isn’t the start of similar problems this season. Without him, they need Devon Still to continue playing like a beast. He has dominated from the DT spot as Odrick and Kennedy did before him.

Two of the next three games should be wins. Thank God for football in the Hoosier state. The Iowa game could swing the season either way. Lose it? They may be lucky to get to .500. Win it? You may be looking at a 7-1, 4-0 team when Illinois comes to town.

Lastly, I’m over the whole JoePa injury storyline. At the Temple game, he stayed in the press box at halftime because it was too far of a trek to get to the locker room and back. How much coaching are you actually doing if you aren’t even going to address the team after the first thirty minutes? JoePa IS PSU, but I hope more and more that he steps down after this season.

Games of the Week

Nebraska @ Wisconsin - History in Madison. It is the Huskers first league game as a member of the Big Ten Conference. Wisconsin has won its first four games by an average of 49-9. The Badger defense ranks in the top ten in three of four major categories. The Huskers meanwhile, have been inconsistent defensively. QB Taylor Martinez is capable of making a big play at any time, but he is also capable of making a mistake that swings the momentum the other way. This game is huge for Wisconsin and the conference. Can the new kid beat the defending champ on their field when they have BCS Title Game aspirations? I think the Badgers give Big Red a taste of what is to come... a longer debut season than they anticipated. Badgers win 27-17.

Alabama @ Florida - Something has to give here. Alabama is 3rd in the BCS in rush defense. Florida is tied for fifth. The Gators lead the SEC in rushing with 259 yards per game. Bama is second with 230.8 per game. This may be the Tide’s toughest road game of the year (Auburn is still likely in the top spot). Alabama is not as explosive offensively as they have been as recently as last season. Richardson is a game breaker, but so are Demps and Rainey. The Swamp gives Florida an edge, but I like Bama to pull it out with a late FG 24-21.

Clemson @ Virginia Tech - Clemson is 4-0 with consecutive wins over Auburn and Florida State. In the those wins, the Tigers amassed almost 1,100 yards of total offense. while converting 23 of 35 third down conversions. QB Tajh Boyd leads the ACC with 13 TDs and 1,255 yards. The Hokies have yet to face a serious threat with wins over Appalachian State, East Carolina, Arkansas State and Marshall. Clemson winning back to back big games was rare. Three in a row? I can’t see it. Hokies bring them back to reality 23-20.

NOW WHAT?

For the third time in less than two years, we were on the brink. The college football landscape was about shift to superconferences. Everyone had said it was only a matter of time, and time was up. Or so we thought.

Once again most of the rumors of deals were just that. The key this time is that there was still just enough movement to leave the door open to more. In some cases, it is almost a certainty.

Let’s take a look at the six BCS conferences, and see what is the next move.

BIG 10 - Jim Delaney was playing a round of golf this weekend as the rest of the BCS leagues were scrambling to hold onto teams or steal someone else’s. What does that mean? The Big Ten made its move last year when they landed Nebraska. They got a major brand with a huge, rabid fan base. Plus, it got them to 12 teams, so they could play a conference title game. They are as content as you can be. Outside of Notre Dame, there isn’t a single school that could become available that would be a guaranteed slam dunk for the league the way Nebraska was in 2010 or the way Penn State was in 1990.

PAC 12 - They flirted with the idea of becoming the Pac 16 last year. Then Texas, Oklahoma and company decided to stay put. This time, it was the Pac 12 that decided twelve teams was enough for them. Mostly because Texas didn’t want to give up or share their new network and without them, the Pac 12 didn’t want Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

BIG 12 - With the threat of moving to the Pac 12 gone, Oklahoma suddenly told the world they were just using that threat as leverage to fix the Big 12. Sure. (I believe that the way I believe Jim Tressel lied to keep his players safe as opposed to keeping them eligible.) Now, it appears the Big 12 will stay together. A major issue it faces going forward (along with trust, a commissioner that has been run off and the Longhorn Network) is replacing Texas A&M. One idea would be to replace one Texas school with another and reach out to TCU. The school that seems to be the first choice though is BYU. Why not? BYU is more of a national brand. It doesn’t sound like they will go above 10 right now, but one thing that is a must if they return to a two division format is they must split up Texas and Oklahoma.

SEC - So, Texas A&M is team #13. It also looks like team #14 will not be determined in time to join next fall. The only way you can play an 8-game league schedule with 13 teams is either scrap the two divisions or play an imbalanced schedule. In the latter case, some schools would not play everyone else in their division. What does that mean? Don’t expect the SEC to stay at 13 for more than one year. So who is in their sights? Reports are that West Virginia has already been shot down by the SEC. I believe their top two choices would be Virginia Tech or Missouri. The ACC may even be anticipating losing the Hokies or someone else by expanding first.

ACC - Pitt and Syracuse? Really? Wow! Who saw that coming? That was the equivalent of Duke and North Carolina bolting for the Big East. This was a “kill or be killed” decision. If we are headed down a path where the best conferences have 16 teams, some of the current BCS leagues would not survive. Now the ACC has enough teams to survive poaching from the SEC. If they need more teams, expect UConn and Rutgers to be up next.

BIG EAST - Once again the ACC has thrown the Big East into chaos. What the league does next is critical. If they don’t find solid replacements, it could lead to more defections or the loss of their automatic BCS bid. That is why I can’t understand the talk of adding Navy and Air Force as football-only members. East Carolina has applied for membership. They would be a solid addition. They have a good program with a strong following. The Pirates 2010 attendance was higher than five of the eight Big East teams. Central Florida is also a popular suggestion. Both would be better options long term than the service academies. Villanova has flirted with moving up to the FBS level. That is still a valid idea. It should not be a replacement move, just an addition once new teams are added.

Games of the Week

LSU @ West Virginia - Last year LSU led 17-0 and held on to win 20-14. WVU ran four plays or less on 10 of their 13 possessions. There is no question LSU is even stronger defensively this year. They are also battle tested with wins over Oregon and Mississippi State. WVU QB Geno Smith may be the top offensive player in the Big East. A rowdy Morgantown crowd will keep the Mountaineers in the game, but only for a while. LSU continues to dominate outside the SEC. I like the Tigers 24-6.

Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M - OSU has won the last three meetings with the last two being decided by a total of eight points. Cowboys QB Brandon Weeden has thrown for over 350 yards in three straight games. He has only been sacked three times thru three games. The Aggies will look to add to that total. They have 11 sacks in their two games. The game is in College Station, and A&M definitely plays more defense. That is enough for me. Aggies go to 3-0 with a 35-30 win.

Florida State @ Clemson - The Noles put up a fight last week... at least defensively, but it wasn’t enough. Oklahoma escaped with a big road win. Now, FSU enters Death Valley, and they may be without QB E.J. Manuel due to a bum shoulder. The Tigers are 7-17 versus FSU, but they have won the last three at home. Clemson gained 624 yards last week in a victory over defending BCS champ Auburn. The Noles are hurting physically and emotionally. If they pull this one out on the road, give Jimbo Fisher all the credit. I see Clemson taking it 26-20.

HOW QUICKLY WE FORGET... OR SO THEY HOPED

-"We are proud and pleased to be offered an invitation to join the Big Eight conference," said Thomas R. Powers of Houston, chairman of the Board of Regents and chief executive officer of TransAmerica Fund Management Co. "We feel it will offer us an opportunity to increase exposure on a national basis and provide our alumni and students an opportunity to be a part of one of the major national conferences.”

-"We are certainly saddened by the demise of the Southwest Conference," Powers said. "I think it was something that was going to happen sooner or later.”

-"We certainly wish those who did not receive an invitation well. I feel sure they are fine institutions and they will find a place in some other program that will be appropriate for them."

Those quotes ran in the Houston Chronicle on February 24, 1994. What school was Thomas R. Powers representing? Baylor!

That’s right. Less than twenty years ago, Baylor was the first Southwest Conference institution to apply for membership in the Big 8 Conference. Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech would soon follow.

“Those who did not receive an invitation” referred to Houston, SMU, TCU and Rice. Funny isn’t it? Keeping 100 year old traditions alive didn’t seem too important then. They were excited about playing Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and their new conference rivals.

Would they be threatening lawsuits or preaching about keeping Texas rivals together if the Pac 16 wanted them to join the fray? Not a chance. In fact, if they weren’t being left out in the cold, you could use the same quotes above and just change Big 8 to Pac 12 and Southwest Conference to Big 12.

To be completely fair though, Baylor is in a desperate situation. Do I expect these tactics to keep the Big 12 together? Not a chance. However, it may buy them time to figure out their best option when the league falls apart.

What is that best option? Let’s face it. No other major conference wants them. So, immediately we can rule out the Big Ten and SEC. There is an outside chance the Big East takes them in. Why not? They already have TCU on the way. Word is they are more interested in the northern teams in the Big 12 (Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri).

There really would only be two reasonable options, neither of which they will like. One is the Mountain West Conference. The problem there is that it has undergone a major overhaul itself. Utah, BYU and TCU are gone (or are leaving), and Boise State, Nevada and Fresno State are on the way. Basically, Baylor would leave one unstable league for a weaker unstable league.

The second option would be Conference USA. They already have UTEP, Houston and SMU. That could be a drawback though. Not for Baylor, but the league. Do you want a fourth Texas school? Would two schools that were left in the dust in 1994 want to give them a home? If they do? Who else could they add to get to 14? My guess would be Troy, but that’s a topic for some other blog. (Just kidding. I am fascinated by expansion, but even I won’t stoop to Conference USA expansion stories.)

All Baylor really needs is to still be able to play the Texas schools leaving them behind. I doubt they could keep all three of their in-state brethren on the schedule every year, but getting at least one on their schedule at all times should keep ticket sales up. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they work out that agreement in exchange for waving their right to sue the SEC/Pac 12/ESPN or whoever else they are blaming for their demotion in the college football world.

Games of the Week

Oklahoma @ Florida State - This match-up of top five teams will have a huge impact on the national championship race. The Sooners humbled FSU last year in Norman, winning 47-17. The ACC hasn’t been a player in the national title picture in quite some time. A win here by Florida State should put them in control of their own destiny. Landry Jones of OU is looked at by many as a serious Heisman contender, but watch out for EJ Manuel of FSU. He has thrown for 581 yards and 6 TDs. However, FSU will have to improve their ground attack to compete with the mighty Sooners. I expect a tight game, with the experience of OU being the difference. I’ll say Sooners win 26-24.

Tennessee @ Florida - Is this the year? The Gators have won six straight over the Vols, and the last four games have been decided by a minimum of 10 points. Tennessee finally has an identity on offense, thanks to QB Tyler Bray. He has completed 68.5% of his passes for 698 yards with 7 TDs and no picks. The Vols can pound the rock too behind Tauren Poole (45 carries, 199 yards). That may come in handy. The team that has rushed for more yardage in this game has won eight in a row and 20 of the last 21. This will be a very competitive game. Tennessee’s offense is up to the task. Is the defense? I don’t think they are quite there yet. I see a Gator win 31-27.

Ohio State @ Miami, FL - I know the jokes. There will be no rules followed here. Call it the Ineligi-Bowl. It is still a very big game between two major programs. The U is 0-1 but played admirably at Maryland with eight players serving suspensions. The Buckeyes rolled thru Akron, then had to fight tooth and nail to edge Toledo. Miami QB Jacory Harris is back and ready. I was more impressed with the Canes one loss than I have been with two Buckeye wins. Last year, turnovers made the difference (OSU was +4). I see a sloppy game, that OSU wins late 20-17.

WEEK ONE LESSONS

September 8, 2011

Sure, majority of the games on opening weekend are tune-ups for conference play or a big non-league game on the horizon. You’ll have a couple of games of note, thanks to the Chick-Fil-A and Cowboy Classics, but by and large, there are more cupcakes lined up in week one than at a bakery. However, there are still lessons to be learned from the opening week of games. Here is what I took away from Labor Day weekend.

Boise State is legit. I DVR’d the game with Georgia while watching LSU-Oregon. Boise State has team speed. As much as the elite of the SEC? No, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t go unbeaten in a BCS conference. They were bigger and quicker up front on the defensive line than I expected. Plus, QB Kellen Moore is about as accurate as you can get. He rushed a few throws, including the INT where he read man-to-man when Georgia was playing zone. Is Boise State deep enough to go undefeated in the SEC when they would most certainly lose a few starters here and there to injury from the increased physicality? No. However, you can say that about many teams out there. I am not saying they should automatically play for the title if they go 12-0, but they can line up and play with anyone. If the MWC had stayed together, they would have had a pretty legit schedule.

People will mistakenly write off Notre Dame. New year, same Irish. Lots of pre-season hype, home loss to a Big East team to start 0-1. Don’t be fooled. Notre Dame is good. Check the stat sheet. They had 27 first downs, allowed one offensive TD, held South Florida to 2-14 on third downs and outgained USF 508-254. They also had five turnovers (three in the red zone) and missed a short FG, and yet they only lost 23-20. Now that Tommy Rees is the QB, if they stop beating themselves, they are capable of beating everyone else on their schedule. Of course, as they showed Saturday, they are capable of losing any given week too.

While we are on the subject of Notre Dame, Michael Floyd is a beast. In addition to his 12 catches for 154 yards, have you seen him lately? His arms are massive. He is officially listed at 6-foot-3, 224 pounds. One look at him Saturday and I could only surmise that he spent his offseason suspension in the weight room. Or possibly on a used car lot bench pressing Honda Civics. It will be difficult for anyone to take him out of a game.

Les Miles + big time non-league game = LSU victory. The Tigers did it again. Just when you are ready to write off the Bayou Bengals, they play their best ball. Since Les Miles took over in Baton Rouge, LSU has won all 23 regular season non-conference games. In fact, the only non-SEC loss for LSU under Miles was a 19-17 defeat to Penn State in the 2010 Capital One Bowl. They are a great representative for SEC dominance. Them and the league’s control of the crystal football the last five Januarys.

2010 was worth at least one more win for Auburn. Trailing Utah State by ten with three minutes remaining, the defending champs played like... well... champs. They quickly drove the field for a score, recovered the onside kick and score again. When you get used to winning, you won’t accept losing, even when it seems inevitable. The Tigers did not panic. They played until the gun. I still think they will be lucky to be be bowl eligible this year, but for one day, they showed the fight of champions.

Games of the Week

Alabama @ Penn State -This is the only match-up of ranked teams this week in college football. The Tide easily handled the Lions last year in Tuscaloosa. This year, it will be Bama with an inexperienced QB making his first road start in hostile territory. In fourteen previous meetings, PSU has scored 20 or more points only three times, and two of the teams that did won national championships. What does that mean? Good PSU teams struggle to score against the Tide. PSU is better defensively from a year ago, and the home crowd will help. I think the Lions stay within striking distance most of the day, but the Tide will be in control. Bama wins 24-13.

Notre Dame @ Michigan - This is the hottest ticket in Big House history. Andy why not? It is the first night game ever at Michigan Stadium. As I demonstrated earlier, the Irish dominated South Florida everywhere but the scoreboard. Conversely, take a look at the stat sheet from the Michigan opener versus Western Michigan. Same number of first downs. Nine more yards. Time of possession favored WMU. Difference was turnovers (two returned for TDs) and penalties (8-1). ND can’t start 0-2. I say they won’t. 31-24 Irish.

Utah @ USC - It is the first conference game for the Utes as a member of the Pac 12. Utah won their opener, but not too convincingly over Montana State 27-10. The Trojans had their hands full themselves with perennial Big Ten bottom feeder Minnesota, winning 19-17. The game is in LA, and USC will have the best player on the field in QB Matt Barkley. The Utes will eventually win this division, but only because USC is not eligible this season. USC wins this one 28-16.

WEEK ONE LESSONS

September 8, 2011

Sure, majority of the games on opening weekend are tune-ups for conference play or a big non-league game on the horizon. You’ll have a couple of games of note, thanks to the Chick-Fil-A and Cowboy Classics, but by and large, there are more cupcakes lined up in week one than at a bakery. However, there are still lessons to be learned from the opening week of games. Here is what I took away from Labor Day weekend.

Boise State is legit. I DVR’d the game with Georgia while watching LSU-Oregon. Boise State has team speed. As much as the elite of the SEC? No, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t go unbeaten in a BCS conference. They were bigger and quicker up front on the defensive line than I expected. Plus, QB Kellen Moore is about as accurate as you can get. He rushed a few throws, including the INT where he read man-to-man when Georgia was playing zone. Is Boise State deep enough to go undefeated in the SEC when they would most certainly lose a few starters here and there to injury from the increased physicality? No. However, you can say that about many teams out there. I am not saying they should automatically play for the title if they go 12-0, but they can line up and play with anyone. If the MWC had stayed together, they would have had a pretty legit schedule.

People will mistakenly write off Notre Dame. New year, same Irish. Lots of pre-season hype, home loss to a Big East team to start 0-1. Don’t be fooled. Notre Dame is good. Check the stat sheet. They had 27 first downs, allowed one offensive TD, held South Florida to 2-14 on third downs and outgained USF 508-254. They also had five turnovers (three in the red zone) and missed a short FG, and yet they only lost 23-20. Now that Tommy Rees is the QB, if they stop beating themselves, they are capable of beating everyone else on their schedule. Of course, as they showed Saturday, they are capable of losing any given week too.

While we are on the subject of Notre Dame, Michael Floyd is a beast. In addition to his 12 catches for 154 yards, have you seen him lately? His arms are massive. He is officially listed at 6-foot-3, 224 pounds. One look at him Saturday and I could only surmise that he spent his offseason suspension in the weight room. Or possibly on a used car lot bench pressing Honda Civics. It will be difficult for anyone to take him out of a game.

Les Miles + big time non-league game = LSU victory. The Tigers did it again. Just when you are ready to write off the Bayou Bengals, they play their best ball. Since Les Miles took over in Baton Rouge, LSU has won all 23 regular season non-conference games. In fact, the only non-SEC loss for LSU under Miles was a 19-17 defeat to Penn State in the 2010 Capital One Bowl. They are a great representative for SEC dominance. Them and the league’s control of the crystal football the last five Januarys.

2010 was worth at least one more win for Auburn. Trailing Utah State by ten with three minutes remaining, the defending champs played like... well... champs. They quickly drove the field for a score, recovered the onside kick and score again. When you get used to winning, you won’t accept losing, even when it seems inevitable. The Tigers did not panic. They played until the gun. I still think they will be lucky to be be bowl eligible this year, but for one day, they showed the fight of champions.

Games of the Week

Alabama @ Penn State -This is the only match-up of ranked teams this week in college football. The Tide easily handled the Lions last year in Tuscaloosa. This year, it will be Bama with an inexperienced QB making his first road start in hostile territory. In fourteen previous meetings, PSU has scored 20 or more points only three times, and two of the teams that did won national championships. What does that mean? Good PSU teams struggle to score against the Tide. PSU is better defensively from a year ago, and the home crowd will help. I think the Lions stay within striking distance most of the day, but the Tide will be in control. Bama wins 24-13.

Notre Dame @ Michigan - This is the hottest ticket in Big House history. Andy why not? It is the first night game ever at Michigan Stadium. As I demonstrated earlier, the Irish dominated South Florida everywhere but the scoreboard. Conversely, take a look at the stat sheet from the Michigan opener versus Western Michigan. Same number of first downs. Nine more yards. Time of possession favored WMU. Difference was turnovers (two returned for TDs) and penalties (8-1). ND can’t start 0-2. I say they won’t. 31-24 Irish.

Utah @ USC - It is the first conference game for the Utes as a member of the Pac 12. Utah won their opener, but not too convincingly over Montana State 27-10. The Trojans had their hands full themselves with perennial Big Ten bottom feeder Minnesota, winning 19-17. The game is in LA, and USC will have the best player on the field in QB Matt Barkley. The Utes will eventually win this division, but only because USC is not eligible this season. USC wins this one 28-16.