HOW THEY DID 2012

HOW THEY DID 2012

December 3, 2012

There are two times during a college football season when a conference has a chance to improve the nation’s perception of it. One is the bowl season.

The problem with that is, much like the NIT in college basketball, they don’t mean the same thing to both sides. If you were one win away from playing for the national title and then lost, or if you felt you deserved a BCS bid and didn’t get one, you won’t be as excited to play as your opponent.

The other opportunity is the non-league portion of your schedule. Which league did the best? Which league did the worst? Here are the answers. With the help of my Happy Hour co-hosts Matt Markus and Mike Mreczko, we developed a point system for non-league games.

I’ll be the first to admit it’s not perfect. I took every FBS conference and scored their results. It’s nice to challenge yourself with tough games, but if you don’t win, how much credibility did you actually bring your conference. So, a loss was worth nothing.

Here is how we broke it down this year…

A win over a ranked team = 5 points (Rankings are based on the time of the game. Since the early polls are based on what was predicted for teams, any wins in September used the first Coaches poll of October.)

A win over a BCS conference team (or BYU) that finished over .500 = 4 points

A win over a BCS conference team that finished .500 = 3.5 points

A win over a BCS conference team that did NOT finish bowl eligible = 3 points

A win over a non-BCS conference team with 10 or more wins = 2.5 points

A win over a non-BCS conference team (or Navy) that finished over .500 = 2 points

A win over a non-BCS conference team (or Army) that finished .500 = 1.5 points

A win over a non-BCS conference team that did NOT finish bowl eligible = 1 point

A win over an FCS school = no points

A loss to an FCS school = minus 2 points

A win over a 4 or 5 point team on the road earned an additional bonus of 1 point

A win over a 3.5 point (or lower) team on the road earned a bonus of a half point

If the win came at a neutral site, cut the bonus point (or half point) in half.

Finally, divide the conference’s point total by the number of non-league games played by that conference (since some leagues play 4, some 5 and the Pac 12 plays 3 each) to get a final score

Here’s what we learned…

1. SEC - 1.3125 - Top scores = Florida, South Carolina & Alabama... Worst scores = Arkansas, Ole Miss & Kentucky... Best wins = Florida @ FSU, S Car @ Clemson, Bama v. Michigan, Tennessee v. NC State, LSU v. Washington, Mizzou v. ASU... League was 16-0 vs. FCS schools
2. PAC 12 - 1.305555 - Top scores = Oregon State, Stanford & Arizona... Worst scores = Colorado, Cal & Washington State... Best wins = Oregon State @ BYU & v. Wisconsin, UCLA v. Nebraska, USC v. Syracuse, Arizona v. Oklahoma State, Utah v. BYU... League was 8-1 vs. FCS schools (Colorado lost to Sacramento State)
3. BIG 12 - 1.2 - Top scores = Texas, Iowa State, Kansas State & TCU... Worst scores = Kansas, Oklahoma & Oklahoma State... Best wins = Kansas State v. Miami, Texas @ Ole Miss, Iowa State @ Iowa & v. Tulsa, TCU v. Virginia, Baylor @ LA-Monroe... League was 9-0 vs. FCS schools
4. BIG TEN - 1.088541 - Top scores = Northwestern, Michigan State & Ohio State... Worst scores = Indiana, Illinois & Michigan... Best wins = MSU v. Boise State, NW @ Syracuse, v. Vanderbilt & Boston College, Minnesota v. Syracuse... League was 10-0 vs. FCS schools
5. BIG EAST - 0.878205 - Top scores = Louisville, Rutgers & Cincinnati... Worst scores = Temple, South Florida & Pitt... Best wins = Louisville v. UNC & Kentucky, Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech, Pitt v. Va Tech, Rutgers @ Arkansas, UConn @ Maryland... League was 9-1 vs. FCS schools (Pitt lost to Youngstown State.)
6. MAC - 0.778846 - Top scores = Ball State, Kent State & Ohio... Worst scores = Eastern Michigan, Miami OH, Buffalo, UMass, Akron... Best wins = Kent State @ Rutgers, Toledo v. Cincinnati, Ohio @ Penn State, Ball State @ Indiana, Central Michigan @ Iowa... League was 10-1 vs. FCS schools (Eastern Michigan lost to Illinois State.)
7. WAC - 0.654761 - Top scores = Louisiana Tech, San Jose State & Utah State... Worst scores = Idaho, New Mexico State, UTSA & Texas State... Best wins = San Jose State v. BYU, San Diego St & @ Navy, La Tech @ Illinois & @ Virginia, Utah State v. Utah... League was 8-1 vs. FCS schools (Idaho lost to Eastern Washington.)
8. ACC - 0.640625 - Top scores = Clemson, Virginia, Maryland, FSU & NC State... Worst scores = Georgia Tech, Boston College & Wake Forest... Best wins = Virginia v. Penn State, Florida State @ South Florida, NC State @ UConn, Maryland @ Temple, Clemson vs. Auburn... League was 14-0 vs. FCS schools.
9. SUN BELT - 0.469512 - Best scores = LA-Monroe, Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee & Troy... Worst scores = North Texas, Florida Atlantic & South Alabama... Best wins = Middle Tennessee @ Georgia Tech, LA-Monroe vs. Arkansas, Western Kentucky @ Kentucky, Troy v. Navy... League was 6-1 vs. FCS schools (Middle Tennessee lost to McNeese State.)
10. MOUNTAIN WEST - 0.398809 - Best scores = Boise State, Nevada & Fresno State... Worst scores = UNLV, Wyoming, Hawaii & Air Force... Best wins = Boise State v. BYU, Nevada @ Cal, Colorado State vs. Colorado, Fresno State v. Colorado... League was 7-3 vs. FCS schools (Wyoming lost to Cal Poly. Colorado State lost to North Dakota State, and UNLV lost to Northern Arizona.)
11. CONFERENCE USA - 0.208333 - Best scores = Rice, Central Florida & Tulsa... Worst scores = Memphis and East Carolina, Marshall, UAB, Southern Miss, SMU & Tulane... Best wins = Rice @ Kansas & v. UTSA, Tulsa v. Fresno State & Central Florida @ Akron... League was 5-1 vs. FCS schools (Memphis lost to Tennessee-Martin.)
• The SEC grabbed the top spot with some big road wins over ranked ACC teams over Thanksgiving weekend. 
• Wondering how Northern Illinois managed to get so high in the BCS? The MAC was great this year in non-league play with wins over Rutgers, Penn State, Indiana, Iowa, South Florida, UConn & Kansas.
• The Sun Belt, traditionally last in my rankings, took a big step forward by beating two SEC schools and Georgia Tech.
• Conference USA had a really down year. They only played six games against FCS competition, but they had trouble beating anyone at the FBS level.

THE DRAFT

November 28, 2012

Okay, I’ve had enough. Rutgers in the Big Ten? Okay. Louisville to the ACC? Well, Syracuse and Pitt are already there, so fine. I can accept a lot of the expansion plans in college athletics, even if it turns arithmetic and geography on its ear.  However, each time I hear another announcement from the Big East, I want to smack myself in the head with a ball peen hammer. 

The latest move is to add Tulane in all sports and East Carolina in football. As closely as I follow college football, I could not, if my life depended on it, list who will be playing in the Big East next year or in 2014. I’ve lost track.

Since tradition, math and maps have been thrown out by those that run college athletics, I suggested that we hold a draft on “The Happy Hour.” Producer Mike Raymond, co-host Matt Markus and I each drafted our own league to form three ultimate conferences. Each school selected brought with it their entire athletic program, their academics, tradition, money, facilities, fan base and market. We stopped at ten teams each simply due to time constraints. Here is how it went.

(Draft order was determined the most scientific of ways... rock, paper, scissors... with Matt going first, me 2nd and Mike 3rd.)

1 - MM - Stanford - Any commissioner would tell you they would be proud to have the well rounded athletic program and academic reputation of Stanford, but not at the expense of some of  the cash cows sitting out there. Matt took arguably the best combo of athletics & academics, and I think he still regrets the pick.

1 - TF - Notre Dame - My lucky day. They should have gone #1.

1 - MR - Texas - If Matt picked as I thought he would, I would have grabbed the Longhorn money machine at #2.

2 - MM - Florida - A valid top five pick.

2 - TF - Ohio State - The big boy of the Midwest. Their fans are everywhere!

2 - MR - Michigan - Ditto. I think the downfall of Detroit puts them behind OSU, but it is close.

3 - MM - Penn State - Sanctions or not, you will want to have this Northeast power.

3 - TF - Alabama - Seriously considered Georgia here to take Atalanta, but instead took the brand name that all southerners love or love to hate.

3 - MR - UCLA - A bit surprised they went before USC, but their overall athletic program is ahead of USC even if football is not... November 17 not withstanding.

4 - MM - USC - Thought they would go sooner. USC football out west is what Bama is down south.

4 - TF - Texas A&M - With Texas gone, I wanted to be in the Longhorn state. Big drop off after the Aggies in terms of name brand and following.

4 - MR - Georgia - Maybe the steal of the day. Well, outside of ND at #2. 

5 - MM - North Carolina - First selection known more for hoops. Not bad for football & brings national hoops brand.

5 - TF - Oregon - Needed to look west. With USC, UCLA & Stanford gone, Nike University was the best of what was left to me.

5 - MR - Oklahoma State - He wanted Oregon here. He went with deep pocket donor. If I wanted someone in midwest here, I’d have gone Missouri or even Nebraska or Oklahoma 1st.

6 - MM - Oklahoma - There is a reason the SEC was interested in taking OU but not if they had to take Okie State also.

6 - TF - Florida State - Surprised they lasted this long. Great location and programs and gets my league into Florida. Even Miami fans don’t follow Miami, so the drop off after the Noles is huge.

6 - MR - Nebraska - No big market & you are really only benefiting from football, but they have a large & loyal fan base. 

7 - MM - LSU - Southern power, but I had another southern school higher on my wish list.

7 - TF - Tennessee - This was it. The state has a couple good markets, & this program is a sleeping giant.

7 - MR - Syracuse - Basketball all the way here. Too many markets available for me to go with the Orange here.

8 - MM - California - Matt solidifies the Bay Area as Cal joins Stanford. 

8 - TF - Maryland - Baltimore and DC markets snagged with the Terps.

8 - MR - Duke - Back-to-back basketball picks for Mike. Better one here with national following.

9 - MM - Baylor - Matt gets into Texas. Their athletic program last year was outstanding even outside the Heisman for RG3.

9 - TF - Washington - With only Oregon in my league from out west, the Seattle market beats my other options.

9 - MR - Virginia Tech - Nice late grab by Mike.

10 - MM - Arizona - The 6th team Matt took west of the Mississippi River.

10 - TF - Pitt - I needed someone else in the northeast & someone with a good basketball program. Time was running out in the show at this point. If given a mulligan, I would have grabbed Missouri.

10 - MM - Hawaii - A joke more than anything. Mike called it a reward for his schools to guarantee a trip to Hawaii. Good think he drafted rich schools, they’ll need it to get all the non-revenue sports out there and back each year.

TOM’S 10 MATT’S 10              MIKE'S 10

Notre Dame Stanford Texas

Ohio State Florida Michigan

Alabama                 Penn State UCLA

Texas A&M        USC Georgia

Oregon North Carolina            Oklahoma State

Florida State Oklahoma Nebraska

Tennessee LSU                         Syracuse

Maryland                California                  Duke

Washington Baylor Virginia Tech

Pitt                         Arizona Hawaii

Games of the Week:

Alabama vs. Georgia- The SEC Championship Game is once again a de facto semifinal for the national championship. The winner faces Notre Dame for the BCS crown. The loser is likely out of the BCS entirely. The game will feature two of the most proficient quarterbacks in the country. Alabama leads the country in scoring defense and total defense, but Mettenberger of LSU and Manziel of A&M moved the ball thru the air. Aaron Murray of Georgia will challenge them. I think Bama wins, but it will be close. Give me the Tide 20-14.

UCLA @ Stanford - These two teams played on Saturday in LA with Stanford winning 35-17. Now, six days later they meet again in Palo Alto for a trip to the Rose Bowl. Stanford rushed for 221 yards in the first meeting, led by Stepfan Taylor’s 142 yards on 20 carries. Some questioned the motivation for the Bruins to win last week. Had they been victorious, their reward would have been a trip to Eugene to play Oregon. I think Stanford is just that good, that tough and that well coached. Stanford is Pasadena bound 27-10.

Texas @ Kansas State - People expected more out of the Longhorns this season, and no one expected KSU to be in the national championship discussion as long as they were. Collin Klein’s Heisman hopes took a serious hit with their loss at Baylor. They have had two weeks to prepare for this season finale where a Big 12 crown and Fiesta Bowl bid is at stake. Texas has talent, but they haven’t put it all together in a big game this year. KSU will not collapse now. Expect a big final game from Klein and a Wildcat rout. KSU heads to Glendale with a 42-21 victory.

BOWL PROJECTIONS - 

BCS TITLE GAME - Notre Dame vs. Alabama

ROSE BOWL - Nebraska vs. Stanford

FIESTA BOWL - Kansas State vs. Oregon

SUGAR BOWL - Florida vs. Oklahoma

ORANGE BOWL - Florida State vs. Rutgers

COTTON BOWL - Texas vs. Texas A&M

CAPITAL ONE BOWL - Michigan vs. Georgia

OUTBACK BOWL - Wisconsin vs. South Carolina

GATOR BOWL - Northwestern vs. Mississippi State

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL - Clemson vs. LSU

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL - NC State vs. Louisville

ALAMO BOWL - Oklahoma State vs. UCLA

SUN BOWL - Oregon State vs. Virginia Tech

HOLIDAY BOWL  - USC vs. TCU

BUFFALO WILD WINGS BOWL - Texas Tech vs. Michigan State

BELK BOWL - Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech

PINSTRIPE BOWL - Syracuse vs. Iowa State

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL OF TEXAS - West Virginia vs. Purdue

MUSIC CITY BOWL - Vanderbilt vs. Duke

BIG 14?

November 21, 2012

So much for that lull in expansion. How long did that officially last? A month? Two tops? The Big Ten, who just this summer said, “We are content with twelve teams,” has suddenly jumped up to 14 with the additions of Maryland and Rutgers.

Some people are laughing at this move. Some are scratching their head. Others are very excited about it. (That would be the folks from Rutgers.) As usual, the Voice of Reason is here to break it down for everyone.

Let’s start with the money question... literally. Will Rutgers really bring in the NYC market? What people don’t realize is that every time the Big Ten adds a school in a new state, there are more markets that will add the Big Ten Network onto their cable line up. Once that is done, it doesn’t matter if there are 100,000 people watching or 100. They make tons of money off subscriber fees.

Yeah, but not enough people in New York care about Rutgers to call their cable provider to try to get the BTN on their regular channel line up. That part is probably true. However, how many alumni of other Big Ten schools are in the market? 

The other aspect of the TV angle has changed in the past week when News Corporation which owns FOX purchased 49% equity stake in the YES Network. They also have an option to increase that to 80% in three years. Why is that significant? Because the BTN is a FOX station. If they want to play hard ball with NYC cable providers, they can use the Yankees as a leverage. Remember, once they get the station on the basic cable line-up. The dollars start to really roll in. I do not think for one second that it is merely a coincidence that those announcements came on the same day.

But, doesn’t this dilute the Big Ten product? At the moment, there is no debate. It absolutely does, but what if the Big Ten isn’t done? Once the SEC moved to 14 teams and the ACC followed, it has been generally accepted that we are moving toward 16-team super conferences. The Big Ten was not the first to 12 teams. They also weren’t the first to 14. What if they are anticipating other leagues like the SEC and Big 12 to take advantage of more Big East and ACC instability?

I could see these moves being to acquire the right TV markets. Then, after the SEC takes Virginia Tech and NC State and the Big 12 snatches Florida State, the Big Ten could check in with Notre Dame one last time before moving on Georgia Tech and who knows? Maybe North Carolina or grabbing Kansas from the Big 12. 

My point is that you would be foolish to look at the league now and make an assessment of these last two additions. Think long term. Not just about where the Terps and Knights may be in 10-20 years, but who follows them?

If Maryland can negotiate the $50 million dollar exit fee down to a more reasonable number, expect Florida State (who also voted against that high exit fee) to get on the phone to the Big 12, which may lead to Louisville joining them, which could cause Boise State and San Diego State to head back to the MWC, which leads to the SEC making their move and so forth and so on.

I said it before, and I will say it again, “Please stay seated and keep your hands inside the car until the ride comes to a complete stop.” The expansion carousal is still spinning folks. Hold on tight.

Games of the Week:

Notre Dame @ USC- Matt Barkley’s injury takes a little luster off this game, but not much. The Trojans offense is still very potent led by WRs Marqise Lee & Robert Woods. Redshirt freshman Matt Wittek will be under center. If the Trojan offensive line keeps him upright, they will score some points and make this one interesting. The Irish will need Everett Golson to play mistake free. Protect the ball, and ND should win. I think Irish fans can start packing for South Beach. I like ND to win 28-20.

Florida @ Florida State - As crazy as it sounds, the Gators may only need to win this game and have USC knock off ND to slide into the national title game. Florida QB Jeff Driskel is expected to play after spraining his ankle last Saturday in his team’s great escape against Louisiana-Lafayette. FSU QB E.J. Manuel will provide the Gator D with a challenge. The Gators haven’t left the state much this year and while this is still in their home state, it is in hostile territory. I like the Seminoles to eliminate any possibility of another all-SEC final. I’ll say FSU 21-14.

Stanford @ UCLA - This is where things get confusing. If Stanford wins this game, the Cardinal host these same Bruins in six days for the Pac 12 Championship. If UCLA wins, the Bruins head to Oregon to battle the Ducks on Friday the 30th. Unless the Ducks lose to Oregon State, then UCLA hosts Stanford. Redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan has already led Stanford to wins over Oregon State and Oregon. The Bruins have been living off their offense. Stanford’s D will be the difference. Fear the Tree. Stanford wins 24-17.

BCS BOWL PROJECTIONS - 

BCS TITLE GAME - Notre Dame vs. Alabama

ROSE BOWL - Nebraska vs. Stanford

FIESTA BOWL - Kansas State vs. Oregon

SUGAR BOWL - Florida vs. Oklahoma

ORANGE BOWL - Florida State vs. Louisville

HOW TO HANDLE LOSING

November 15, 2012

One thing that is a certainty in college football is that sooner or later your favorite team will lose. You may be able to go undefeated for a year. If you find a special player and a favorable schedule, you may even follow it up the next year. But, no one who plays major college football goes their entire career without a defeat.

For some programs, handling losses is easy. They come in bunches. It is the wins that are a few and far between. Losses for these fans barely last an hour before they are on to something else. 

At schools where winning is expected, there is always someone to blame for the loss. Sometimes it is the head coach. Other times it is the quarterback, but too often the blame lies on those that supposedly wish to see your program fail... the officials.

This leads me to the Voice of Reason’s first rule of losing... Own your losses. Referees make questionable or even blatantly wrong calls every game. Guess what. Some go in your favor. Some even assist you in a victory. You never notice those, but God help an official that makes a debatable call in a close loss.

Let me break it to you. The ref does not have money on the game. The conference commissioner has not instructed them on who is supposed to win. If it seems like the favored team is getting helped out by penalties or foul calls, they are. Not because the ref is Tim Donaghy. It is mostly because your underdog team is not as quick or strong and is a split second late. Good defense in other games becomes interference. A clean block is now a hold.

Own your losses. Don’t whine about officials. Block better. Tackle better. Shoot better. You still could have won. Oh, and if you are a Penn State fan, I don’t care if the end of your next game is an exact duplicate of the Seahawks-Packers debacle on Monday Night Football... Pipe down. No one wants to hear you complain about this. In fact, no one wants to hear you complain about anything! You only make yourself look bad. I know. I know. “Those kids deserve better.” You whining about it isn’t going to change a damn thing. All it will accomplish is it will give people looking for more reasons to continue to dump on PSU more ammo. So please... shut up.

With that being said, let me add that I have absolutely no problem at all with PSU QB Matt McGloin after the Nebraska game saying, “We're not going to get that call here. We're not going to get that call ever, actually, against any team. It doesn't matter who the refs are. We'll never get that call.” 

McGloin is a fifth year senior QB who just came off the field after a tough loss. His comments are a reminder to not expect any help from the refs. I know that comments like these only fuel the conspiracy theorists in the fan base, but a player making that particular statement and fans whining are two different things to me.

My second rule is one you heard long ago. People who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones. (Or walk around naked for that matter.) For example, Big Ten fans taunting Alabama for losing to Texas A&M is just absurd. Mind your own season before you start taunting.

My final rule is one i bring up year after year on my show. If you are going to wear your team’s gear proudly after a win, you should also wear it after a loss. Don’t hide your colors. Show that you stand by them in good times and bad. 

Trust me. Follow these rules, and you will be amazed at how much respect you will be shown by your friends. Break one of these rules and you deserve any grief they want to dish out.

Games of the Week:

Stanford @ Oregon- The Oregon Ducks have their work cut out for them over the next three weeks. The first test comes from the Stanford Cardinal. The folks from Palo Alto have been impressive with Andrew Luck now leading the NFL’s Colts. Stanford has lost its last five trips to Eugene with four of them coming by at least three TDs. This game would be harder to call if it was at Stanford. With the Ducks playing at home, I expect them to have too much offense as usual. I like the Ducks 49-24.

USC @ UCLA - This isn’t the season Matt Barkley envisioned when he announced he was returning to USC for his senior year. They already have three Pac 12 losses. They must win here to play for the league title and likely get another crack at Oregon. USC has won five straight in the series and hammered UCLA last season 50-0. The Bruins are young and talented offensively, but I don’t think Barkley will allow them to fall here. I like the Trojans in a shootout 48-38.

Ohio State @ Wisconsin - Yes. Yes. I know. The Badgers have already clinched the Leaders Division title. There is still intrigue here as OSU looks to stay undefeated. Plus, with Penn State ineligible for postseason play for three more years, this match-up will likely determine the Leaders champion for the next three years minimum. The Badgers are at home and have enough talent to win here. Braxton Miller is a true talent, but against better teams, he can’t do it all alone. I like the Badgers to win 23-20.

BCS BOWL PROJECTIONS - 

BCS TITLE GAME - Kansas State vs. Oregon

ROSE BOWL - Nebraska vs. Notre Dame

FIESTA BOWL - Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M

SUGAR BOWL - Alabama vs. Clemson

ORANGE BOWL - Florida State vs. Louisville

WINNERS WIN

November 8, 2012

“Who have they beaten?” We hear that question asked a lot in college football. The redundancy increases this time of year. 

Everyone wants to marginalize the other guy’s achievements. Your team isn’t really that good when you look at it. It’s all smoke and mirrors and pumped up stats against a bunch of weaklings. 

Don’t get me wrong. In some cases, this kind of criticism is very fair. Let’s face it. Just because Ohio and Alabama were both undefeated didn’t make them equals. However, trivializing victories of team’s that play in a major conference is just comical.

This season, I heard people questioning just how good Alabama really was heading into the LSU game. “This season they haven’t played anybody yet.” Forget the fact that they were destroying everybody. Ignore the fact that they hadn’t trailed anybody for more than a minute or two all season. 

I get it though. People are sick of the SEC winning... actually make that dominating college football, so they look for any glimmer of hope that this year they actually aren’t as strong.

The other doubts are falling squarely on Notre Dame. I understand that one too. People don’t want to admit Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the country because... well... they’re Notre Dame. That’s it. 

Have they been hammering people like Oregon? No. They just win. Apparently, that isn’t enough for some people. Even if they win their final three games against Boston College, Wake Forest and USC, they will likely be ranked fourth in the final BCS poll unless teams above them lose.

Do I think Alabama would have needed 3OT to beat Pitt if they played them in Tuscaloosa? No way. Would Oregon have been held to less than 20 points by Michigan? Maybe in the first quarter but not for 60 minutes. 

The real question is how many teams could play teams from the Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12, Big East & ACC week after week and not lose. If going 9-0 was so easy, everybody would do it. 

Once teams pull out a few close games, they start to believe. They believe in their coaches. They believe in each other. They believe they will win, and they don’t waver.

A team like that is dangerous. Remember the 2002 Ohio State Buckeyes? How many people said they had no shot at beating Miami in the Fiesta Bowl? They had squeaked by again and again. Miami was loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. I am sure some of you want to bring up the debatable pass interference call that extended the game in overtime. Breaks like that are part of a magical season. It isn’t luck. Well, maybe a little bit, but a winning team will put themselves in position to catch a break. Sometimes... they get it.

I too looked at Notre Dame’s record midway thru the season and said, “the Big Ten is actually pretty down this year. We’ll get a better sense of how good Notre Dame is after they play Stanford and Oklahoma.” It looks like I have my answer.

The SEC is the best conference. No one should question that. Can I honestly say that ND couldn’t beat Alabama? Nope. I have no clue. Could they keep up with the Ducks? No. But I think they would frustrate Oregon and stay in the fight. At that point, anything can happen.

Notre Dame just keeps winning... week after week after week. I am starting to get the feeling that if you gave them one shot at one of those top three teams, they’d find a way yet again. Like the ’02 Buckeyes or Penn State in 1986, they would finish the job, because winners win.

Games of the Week:

Texas A&M @ Alabama- The Tide silenced their critics last week with an impressive final drive to defeat LSU in Baton Rouge. The Aggies are led by QB Johnny Manziel. He is the team’s leading rusher with 922 yards and 15 TDs. He has also thrown for 2,527 yards and 16 TDs with only 6 INTs. If this game was at College Station, I would seriously consider taking A&M in an upset. They will challenge the Tide after such an emotional win at LSU. With Bama at home, I like the Tide to win, but A&M will score some points. I will say Bama 24-17.

Oregon State @ Stanford -This game will feature two QBs that were the back up at the start of the season. Stanford has abandoned inconsistent Josh Nunes for Kevin Hogan. The Beavers’ starter in week 1 Sean Mannion was injured and struggled upon returning, so Cody Vaz is now leading the orange and black attack. The difference for me is that Vaz defeated Arizona State. Hogan earned the job in a performance over awful Colorado. With USC’s recent demise, the Beavers can take a a major step towards a Rose Bowl at-large bid with a win here. I like OSU 31-26.

Kansas State @ TCU - The only big key to this game is the health of KSU starting QB and Heisman Trophy candidate Collin Klein. He left the game last week with a head injury. Head Coach Bill Snyder has said he expects Klein to play. If he doesn’t play, this could be the end of KSU’s run to a BCS Title Game appearance. TCU is coming off a road win over West Virginia. After this game, the Wildcats play Baylor on the road and host Texas. I think Klein plays, and KSU wins 35-20.

BCS BOWL PROJECTIONS - 

BCS TITLE GAME - Alabama vs. Oregon

ROSE BOWL - Nebraska vs. Oregon State

FIESTA BOWL - Kansas State vs. Notre Dame

SUGAR BOWL - South Carolina vs. Oklahoma

ORANGE BOWL - Florida State vs. Louisville

HEISMAN VOTING 101

October 24, 2012

I am proud to say I have been an official voter for the Heisman Trophy since the 2005 season. I take this task very seriously, and I am not exaggerating when I say I am honored to receive a ballot. 

I would never tell someone who to vote for. It is your vote not mine. However, I do have some advice for my fellow voters.

First, you have to wipe the slate clean. The award is for the most outstanding player in college football for that particular year. In other words, what happened last year is irrelevant.  I don’t think voters look at stats or performances from previous years when comparing players, but I believe they do take past performances into account without acknowledging they are doing it.

I have seen numerous polls and debates in print, on radio and on TV rating Hesiman favorites or front runners. In some cases, I have seen people rank the top Heisman candidates in May for the upcoming season. If you are rating someone as a favorite in May, you are giving them a head start based on the previous season.

I have never ranked pre-season candidates. In fact, even now after eight college football weekends I do not have a “favorite.” There are a few players that have stood out to me, but this isn’t the BCS poll.  Teams can lead the polls for most of the year, but if they fail at the wrong time, they drop and run out of time to climb back to the top. I know it is referred to as “the Heisman race, but that doesn’t literally mean that people lead week to week and whoever finishes with the biggest flourish is the best in the country. I wait until the season is over and then look back at the entire year as a whole.

Secondly, don’t fall in love with stats. This isn’t baseball. Numbers can be deceiving. The offense they run and the competition they play can both skew numbers. Ty Detmer was given the 1990 Heisman because the passing numbers he was putting up were unprecedented. The problem  was he played at BYU and other than an early season win over Miami, he beat up on bad WAC teams. Meanwhile, the most exciting player in college football, Raghib “the Rocket” Ismail finished second. This hasn’t been as much of a problem since then. In fact, the last time I believe somebody won the Heisman due to stats was Colorado RB Rahsaan Salaam in 1994.

Last and most importantly, the award is not for the best player on the best team. In some cases, the most outstanding player is on the best team, but just because a team is ranked in the top three, that does not mean their QB deserves Heisman consideration. 

From what I can tell, that trend began in 1992 when Miami QB Gino Toretta won the award. The Hurricane defense carried that team thru the regular season, but he was the QB of an undefeated team. To me you can’t give him credit for quarterbacking the team to a perfect season when they managed to win one game with eight points and another with 80 yards passing. If anyone on that team deserved the award, my vote would have gone to LB Michael Barrow.

This thinking is not limited solely to quarterbacks. In 2009, Mark Ingram of Alabama won the Heisman. He had a couple big games for a team that went undefeated and he put up great numbers in the SEC Championship Game. The problem is he was a non-factor in a defensive win over Tennessee and was invisible in a come from behind win at Auburn. Bama was a great team, and Ingram was a very good player. But the best in the country? Hardly. 

There are plenty of people in this country who are quick to say the Heisman doesn’t mean as much any more. I understand why they say that. Too many voters are lazy and do not follow the basic guidelines I have laid out here. 

As for me, I will continue to record games every week with my Tivo, so I can see how the top players perform in their biggest games.  I will take the entire season into account along with big game performances, stats and competition. Around Thanksgiving, I will start thinking about who should be one, two and three on my ballot.

Games of the Week:

Florida vs. Georgia- The Cocktail Party has been dominated by the Gators in recent years. The men from Gainesville have won 18 of the last 22 games. If Florida can win here, they will have clinched the SEC East and a spot in the league title game. Georgia CB Damian Swann told the world this week that his team knows the Bulldogs need to win a big game to be taken seriously. The Gators have been impressive defensively, but they have struggled in their passing game. I expect the Bulldogs to keep this close, but the Gators win a defensive affair to stay perfect. I say Florida 17-10.

Notre Dame @ Oklahoma -The folks that don’t consider Notre Dame to be a true national title contender have pointed to this game as the reason why. Oklahoma has the most athletic defense the Irish will have faced, and there is no debating that OU has a more prolific passing game than anyone on ND’s schedule. If ND is going to be exposed, it will be here. I have said recently that the ND front seven is the best I have seen in South Bend in years. They won’t get embarrassed, but they won’t win either. I will take the Sooners 24-14.

Texas Tech @ Kansas State - While ND tries to prove it is a national title contender, Kansas State has already cemented itself in the conversation with road wins at Oklahoma and West Virginia. The Red Raiders can put up points with QB Seth Doege. It’s their defense facing KSU QB Collin Klein that will be the problem. Tech surrendered 53 points in a 3OT win at TCU last weekend. I think this game will be close. In fact, if it was in Lubbock, I’d take Texas Tech for the upset. In Manhattan, I will pick KSU to win 35-28.

WHAT CHANCE DO YOU HAVE

October 18, 2012

The initial BCS poll for the 2012 season has been released. With half of the schedule left for most teams, a lot of things could change between now and December 2nd. 

The lowest a team has been ranked in the initial poll and still made it to the championship game is 12th. Nick Saban’s 2003 LSU team pulled that off. So, let’s look at the top 12 of the first poll and see who is in good shape and who needs help.

On the outside looking in (or in this case UP) - #13 West Virginia, #14 Florida State, #15 Rutgers and #16 Louisville. WVU blew their shot when they were embarrassed last weekend 49-14 at Texas Tech. The Noles were looking like a contender until they fell flat with a 17-16 loss to NC State. Beating Florida on Thanksgiving weekend will help, but an ACC Champ with one loss won’t make the top two. As for Rutgers and Louisville. Both have defeated an SEC team this year, but those teams are Arkansas and Kentucky. 

#12 Mississippi State - They aren’t a traditional power, but they are in the SEC. They have road games left with Alabama and LSU. They will probably need to win out just to make the SEC Championship game. If they can finish 13-0 and SEC Champion, they are in. As low as they are currently, I’d say they still control their own destiny.

#11 Georgia - The Bulldogs took a bad loss at South Carolina. They need the Gamecocks to lose a league game, and they need to beat Florida just to win the SEC East. Even then, I don’t think they make it all the way to the top two without a bunch of help.

#10 USC - The Trojans already have a loss at Stanford. They do have Oregon and Notre Dame remaining on their schedule plus a possible rematch with Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship Game. USC needs to run the table. If they can beat the Ducks twice (a big if), they can still play for it all.

#9 Oklahoma - My preseason pick to win it all. With a home loss to KSU, they have no choice but to beat everyone as badly as they beat Texas last week. They host Notre Dame and visit West Virginia. The WVU loss didn’t hep their cause, but they likely have to win and look great doing it from here on out.

#8 Oregon State - The Beavers have a lot of land mines left. They finish with Oregon and a possible match-up with USC in the Pac 12 Championship. A loss in either of those games will keep them out of the top two, and a loss to anyone else will make them plummet in the polls.

#7 South Carolina - I think it is all still in front of the Gamecocks. They visit Florida this week and finish at Clemson. If they can win out and defeat either Alabama or LSU in the SEC Championship, I don’t see a two point road loss at LSU keeping them out of the top two.

#6 LSU - Even after losing at Florida, they scored a big win over South Carolina. With Texas A&M, Mississippi State and most importantly Alabama still on the schedule, win out and they will be in the top two.

#5 Notre Dame - The Irish aren’t getting any help from Purdue, Michigan and Michigan State. The Big Ten is having an awful year. That may come back to haunt the Irish. If they win out, I think they will need Oregon to lose a game. The Ducks still play ASU, Oregon State and USC (likely twice). By the time ND gets the Trojans, the Ducks may have already handed them a 2nd loss.

#4 Kansas State - The Wildcats may drop out of the conversation after this week. They must be 12-0 to have any shot to be in the top two. ND will likely jump them if both schools are undefeated, and they won’t jump a perfect Oregon team.

#3 Oregon - Their schedule is back loaded. Four of their last six games are on the road including games at USC and Oregon State. If they win out, I believe they will be in the title game. One loss early enough could allow them to jump back in if they win the conference and both ND and KSU lose a game.

#2 Florida - No one is jumping the Gators if they win out. They still play South Carolina, Georgia and Florida State in addition to the SEC Championship Game. A loss in the league title game would knock them out, but if they win the league with one loss, they will likely be in the top two.

#1 Alabama - A loss anywhere but the title game, and they can probably recover. Dare I say it, but even if LSU or Mississippi State beats them, they could end up playing in the championship again if Oregon, KSU and Notre Dame lose a game. Picture this... Bama loses to LSU and then LSU falls to Florida in the SEC Championship. Couldn’t you see Bama vs. Florida for the championship. Sadly, I can. 

Games of the Week:

Oregon @ Arizona State- The Ducks rank 2nd in the nation with 52.3 points per game and 4th in the country with 302.3 rushing yards per game. Oregon has scored at least 41 points in each of their last four meetings with the Sun Devils. Oregon was off last week but has not been tested yet this year. ASU has been impressive so far with their only loss coming at Missouri. I like the Ducks 48-28.

South Carolina @ Florida -The brutal stretch for the Gamecocks continues. After routing Georgia, they were nipped by LSU 23-21. SC RB Marcus Lattimore has a bruised hip and is questionable. The Gators survived their trap game at Vanderbilt. The winner of this game becomes the favorite in the SEC East. This game is in the Swamp which is why I like Florida in a defensive struggle. I’ll take the Gators 17-16.

Kansas State @ West Virginia - The “Geno Smith for Heisman” campaign took a major hit last week with a 49-14 loss at Texas Tech. WVU allows almost 400 yards a game thru the air. Lucky for them, KSU is ranked 112th in the nation in passing yards per game. The Wildcats are probably the Big 12’s last shot at  playing for the national championship. With the game in Morgantown and the Mountaineers playing with wounded pride, I think WVU bounces back with a 35-21 victory.

I CONFESS

October 11, 2012

I am a Whovian. Some time over the last year and a half, my wife and I got into watching the British science fiction show Dr. Who. Other than being a big Star Wars guy as a kid, I was never into sci-fi. I never watched Star Trek or Battlestar Galactica. For some reason, we got hooked on this show that relaunched in 2005 as a continuation of the original that aired from 1963-1989. 

Maybe it is because the new episodes air on Saturday nights. Maybe it is because I had too much time on my hands, but recently I realized that some of the characters on the show share the characteristics of certain people, programs and conferences in college football. 

Here are the links I have made from the world of college football to the world of Dr. Who.

Daleks - Alien race that destroys (or in their terms, “exterminates”) other species because any species that is not Dalek is inferior. Their CFB equivalent is... 

SEC - As much as SEC schools despise each other, they all look down on every other conference nationwide. Six consecutive national championships will do that to a conference. 

Cybermen - Humanoid robots made of steel. Humans are “converted” by having their brains removed and placed in a body of armor. Conversion removes class, race, sex, creed and emotion. Their CFB equivalent is...

Big East - Whether you play basketball in Houston or football in San Diego, you are now Big East. Abandon all that you previously believed and prepare to be converted into what your new ruler wants you to be.

Weeping Angels - Also known as “the Lonely Assassins.” When being observed, they turn to stone. Turn your back, look away or even blink, and they are deadly. Their CFB equivalent is... 

Clemson - Underestimate them and they will take you out. However, when they draw your attention and the world watches, they turn to stone.

Sontarans - Alien race with a militaristic culture. Every aspect of their society is geared toward warfare and win or lose, the battle itself is glorious. College football equivalent is...

Army, Navy and Air Force - The military academies prepare for battles much larger than those on the gridiron. They all relish the opportunity to compete side by side in battle.

Silurians - Native race of earth. They live underground away from the human race. Some are content with life as it is. Others look forward to the day they come to surface and reclaim their rightful place as the dominant species of planet Earth. Their college football equivalent is...

Notre Dame - The Irish have spent a lot of time beneath the surface of college football. They were the original dominant program. Many of their followers are anxious for the day they reclaim their rightful place as rulers of college football.

The Silence - Alien race that has been living on earth since the beginning. Why haven’t we seen them? We have. When you aren’t looking at them, they basically edit themselves out of your mind. Unless you are looking at them, you forget they exist. Their college football equivalent is...

Miami - When things are going well for the U, they are must see college football. They have talented athletes and swagger. However, when things aren’t going well, you practically forget about them. It seems to be all or nothing with this program. Fear them or forget about them. There is no in between.

River Song - She is a companion of the Doctor. She is also a time traveler. She and the Doctor meet out of order. Their first meeting for him is their last from her perspective. It is so complicated, she has a diary to help keep track of what they have already done together and what she has done that is in the Doctor’s future. Confused yet? Her college football equivalent is...

Kansas State - The Wildcats are also hard to understand. They had no history to speak of as a program until Bill Snyder came along. He took over a program that had lost 27 straight games. Before he was done in 2005, he won KSU its first conference title since 1934. After three mediocre seasons under Tom Prince, they brought the old man back. Somehow, he has them back in the top 5. It defies logic.

Amy Pond - Companion of the Doctor. He dropped out of the sky when she was seven years old. He tells her he will be right back and leaves in his time machine. Instead of returning twelve minutes later as promised, he mistakenly returns twelve years later. After a brief adventure together in her hometown, the Doctor leaves her for another two years before she joins him on his travels. He refers to her as “the girl who waited.” Her college football equivalent is...

ACC - The league will have 14 football playing members when Pitt & Syracuse join next season. Notre Dame will soon join in all sports except football. Even though that will bring the ACC to 15 teams playing basketball, they do not plan to add a 16th school for hoops. Why? Like Amy Pond waiting for the Doctor, the ACC will patiently wait for Notre Dame football to come and take them to new and amazing places.

Rory Williams - Companion of the Doctor. Introduced with Amy Pond as a bumbler for some comic relief. He finds his sense of adventure and becomes brave, admirable and in some cases feared. His college football equivalent is...

Oregon - The Ducks were once known for the Donald Duck clone of a mascot and their funny uniform combinations. Okay, to some they are still known for the uniforms. Over time they have become so potent offensively, they are taken very seriously and feared by defensive coordinators every where.

The Doctor - He is a time lord. His enemies consider him to be the greatest evil in the universe. His friends and followers will defend him to their last breath. Just recently, all records of him were deleted from every database in the universe. His college football equivalent is...

Joe Paterno - Ditto.

Games of the Week:

Oklahoma vs. Texas- The Red River Rivalry is one of my favorite college football traditions. It is basically a mid-season bowl game between two great programs. Expect a close game. Three of the last fourteen meetings have been decided by double digits. Both defenses will be tested. I liked OU to win this game before the season, and I haven’t seen anything to change my mind. I’ll take the Sooners 31-27.

South Carolina @ LSU -What a performance last Saturday by the Gamecocks! They jumped all over Georgia en route to a 35-7 blowout. They have won a school record ten straight games. As awesome as their crowd was last week, they are in as hostile an environment as you will see this week. LSU’s offense never found the end zone last weekend in a 14-6 loss to Florida. The Tigers can’t afford another loss. The ‘ol ball coach has a defense that will keep them in the game, but I don’t think they can win two games like this back-to-back. I like LSU 20-14.

Stanford @ Notre Dame - The Irish defense is the talk of the nation. They have only allowed three TDs thru five games, and Notre Dame has not trailed this season. Stanford is hard to figure out. They upset USC, rally to beat Arizona in OT and then lose on the road to Washington. Stanford is the most balanced offensive attack that ND has faced so far this season. With the game being in South Bend, I think the Irish stay undefeated. I like ND 27-21.