SLOW DOWN

September 22, 2009

Every year at this time, college football fans and analysts make mountains out of mole hills. Any small trend that has developed over the first three weeks leads to hard conclusions about the remaining 11 weeks of the season. Most of them will be disproved by Columbus Day.

Last year gave us East Carolina. At this point in 2008, they were all but assured of a BCS berth after defeating Virginia Tech and West Virginia. They finished with four regular season losses.

Here are five bandwagons I wouldn’t hop aboard just yet.

Tennessee is closer to being back than we thought. Urban Meyer was right, sort of. The Vols were content to keep the game close Saturday and avoid embarrassment. I wouldn’t go as far as to say they weren’t trying to win. Lane Kiffin knew they have a below average QB and didn’t want him to open the door for a 40-point blowout loss. They played well defensively and hung tough with the Gators. However, they are still deficient in the passing game. Their defense will keep them in games, but unless Crompton starts channeling Peyton Manning over the next three months, bowl eligibility should be the goal.

Miami is a contender for the BCS Title Game. Randy Shannon is doing a marvelous job at the U. The first four games on the Canes schedule make-up the toughest opening month of any team in the nation. However, they are only at the midway point of that gauntlet. Miami edged FSU when Chris Ponder short hopped the game winning TD pass. The win over Georgia Tech was nice, but a trip to Blacksburg awaits followed by a home date with Oklahoma. The Canes could easily find themselves at 2-2 with five league games remaining.

Poor USC may be kept out of the BCS Title Game due to one early season loss again. First of all, how many times has that scenario actually happened to the Trojans? Let’s examine the Pete Carroll era. In ’02, they lost two of their first five and made the BCS as an at-large team. In ’03, their rightful spot in the Sugar Bowl was given to Big 12 title game loser Oklahoma. The BCS formula was altered after the bowls decreasing the weight given to computer polls. (By the way, the Trojans still claimed a share of the national title.) USC played for the crown in ’04 and ’05. In ’06, USC was packing its bags for Glendale, Arizona and a date with Ohio State when they were upset by UCLA. It was their second loss. In ’07, the Trojans lost to Stanford andOregon, sending them to Pasadena. Last year, one early season loss did keep them out of the title game, but I think Texas had a bigger grievance.

It’s true. Saturday’s loss to Washington may keep USC out of the championship game. However, anyone talking like that is already assuming USC is the same team as they have been each of the last seven seasons. After watching their last two games, I don’t believe that is the case. With road games remaining with Cal, Oregon, Arizona State and Notre Dame, the “poor USC” sentiment will be moot by Halloween.

Notre Dame is still looking at another four or five loss season. Yes, it is true. Notre Dame is one play away from being 1-2. They are also one play away from being 3-0. The Irish defense clearly has issues, and the loss of WR Michael Floyd to a broken collarbone will hurt. However, this team is still scary on offense and has a great chance to be 4-1 when USC comes to town. If they are 5-1 on October 18, a BCS bid lies ahead.

(Insert team here) is totally overrated/underrated in the polls. The polls are important for a few reasons. The best teams obviously need to be in the top two to play for the national championship. Teams that do not win their league can qualify for the BCS automatically depending on their ranking. Non-BCS conference teams need to reach a certain threshold to make it into the BCS. However, it’s September for crying out loud! 75% of the regular season is still in front of us. The only poll that counts for anything is the one on December 6^th. Until then, pipe down… no one cares where you should be ranked.

Games of the Week:

Miami @ Virginia Tech –With a 2-0 start in the ACC, the Canes would become the new favorites if they can beat the Hokies. Va Tech has won 4 of the last 6 in the series and has held the U to 14 points or less in the last three meetings. Miami QB Jacory Harris can thrust himself into Heisman consideration with another strong performance here. I thought the Canes would be 1-3 in early October. They have already exceeded my expectations. In Blacksburg, I’ll still take the Hokies in a close one.

Cal @ Oregon – Speaking of Heisman candidates, did anyone see Jahvid Best’s five touchdown performance last week at Minnesota? Wow! Thanks to USC’s early league loss at Washington, the Bears can seize control of the Pac 10 in their next three games. Cal will be without WR Nyan Boateng for 4-6 weeks. That will hurt. Meanwhile, the Ducks have put the trip to Boise behind them with back-to-back wins. Cal has won three straight and four of the last five in the series. If Cal has dreams of playing in its first Rose Bowl in 50 years, a win here is a must. I believe they get it.

Iowa @ Penn State – Iowa has won 6 of the last 7 meetings with PSU. How? They control the line of scrimmage and are well coached. Considering the early season struggles of the PSU O-Line, this will be a solid test. The Lions enter the game a little banged up defensively. LBs Navarro Bowman (groin) and Sean Lee (knee) are questionable. With kickoff set for 8pm, this is the declared stadium-wide whiteout game. The atmosphere and experience should help the Lions pull out a tough win.

Upset Alert – Colorado State @ BYU – A week ago, the Cougars were talking BCS. Now, after getting handled at home by Florida State, they must beware of a let down. Last season, they edged CSU 45-42 in a game that had 5 fourth quarter lead changes. If the disappointment of last week hasn’t fully subsided, the Rams are strong enough to take advantage.