DON'T EVEN START

In the back of my mind, I had this topic scheduled for the week of November 12th. I had to bump it up in the rotation once fans and media started talking about a possible LSU-Alabama rematch in the BCS Championship Game.

Those people that know me are aware there a bunch of things in the college football world that I despise. Calling divisions Leaders and Legends, moving bowl games off of New Year’s Day, teams that won’t leave the state for a non-league game and Michigan are all on that list. Atop that list is rematches.

There are 120 FBS teams. That means in a twelve game season, you will only play ten percent of the other teams competing for a national title. Add those numbers to the fact that the biggest complaint about college football is that “it’s not settled on the field.” When you have a rematch, you have two teams that have already settled it on the field.

I understand some rematches cannot be helped. In the age of conference championship games, they will happen more and more. I am not a fan of those, but the teams will have earned their spot in the game by winning the division. In bowl games, why would you choose a rematch over giving another team a chance to do the job?

“But, isn’t the purpose of the championship game to match the two best teams?” No. It is to match the two most deserving teams. USC may have been one of the top teams in the nation in 2006, 2007 and 2008, but they were not chosen for the championship game. Why? There were other teams more deserving of the spot based on not just who they played, but when and where they lost.

I made these same exact arguments in 2006 when Ohio State and Michigan played that classic game decided by three points in Columbus. The questions began. Should they play again? If voters had followed that line of thinking, Florida never would have had their chance to rout the Buckeyes. Do I think Oklahoma, Clemson or Wisconsin will beat Alabama or LSU? No. Do they deserve the chance to step on the field with the SEC Champ? Absolutely.

I would rather see Boise State lose to Alabama by fifty, than see two teams from the same conference play for a second time over other league champions. The SEC is without a doubt the best conference in college football, but that does not mean no one else should be afforded the opportunity to challenge them for the crystal football.

Games of the Week

Wisconsin @ Michigan State - Through the first six games, Wisconsin has averaged 50.2 points and 523 yards per game. They also have only played one game outside of Camp Randall Stadium, and that was to face Northern Illinois at Soldier Field. The Spartans are the last team to beat the Badgers in the regular season. MSU has a defense that will challenge Russell Wilson, Monte Ball and company. They are second in the nation in total defense with 21 sacks and 8 interceptions, but they will play without DE William Gholston. Expect a rematch in Indianapolis, but that one will finish the same as this one. Wisconsin 23-21.

Washington @ Stanford - Washington is going in the right direction with Coach Steve Sarkisian. Even after losing Jake Locker to the NFL, the Huskies are 5-1 and 3-0 in Pac 12 play. This game will match the two highest rated passers in the conference in UW’s Keith Price and Stanford’s Andrew Luck. The key in this game is the Stanford defense. They are allowing just 294.8 yards and 11.2 points per game. With the game in Palo Alto, I like the Cardinal and future Dolphin Andrew Luck 35-26.

USC @ Notre Dame -The Irish finally broke through last year and ended USC’s eight game winning streak in the series. Matt Barkley was unable to play in this match-up last year due to a bum ankle. The Irish struggled early this year with unforced errors. They finally seem to have that under control. They had two weeks to prepare for this game, and it is the first night game in South Bend in twenty years. USC will be in this one the whole way, but ND prevails 31-28.

THE PERFECT STORM?

Is this the year it happens? We all have waited, analyzed, hoped and prayed for a year when the BCS just imploded. In 2007, each time a new team reached the top of the mountain, an underdog was there to take them down. All that year proved (as I have explained in this column in the past) was that in a playoff system, none of those upsets would have mattered. All of those teams would have qualified for an 8-team playoff.

However, 2011 has the makings of the perfect storm. As of today, there are thirteen unbeaten teams in the top 25. If we end up with multiple undefeated teams from BCS conferences that get shut out of the BCS Title Game, that could be the impetus needed to take down the current system.

Before you get overly excited, realize that it is impossible for all thirteen teams to remain undefeated. Let’s look at what could happen if the maximum number of teams stay perfect.

First thing we have to do is pencil in Houston to the Liberty Bowl. The Cougars don’t have the clout or the non-league schedule to crash the BCS party. They are ranked 25th at the moment and only one team remaining on their schedule (SMU) has a winning record.

Boise State has garnered enough national respect to slip into the title game, but only if there is one unbeaten team from a BCS conference left in December.

Now, on to the BCS leagues. The Big Ten has three undefeateds as of today (Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan). In past years, we would have to check the schedule of all teams involved to see if they were scheduled to play this season. Under the new divisional set up, Wisconsin and Illinois play on November 19. If the winner finishes 12-0, they could face a perfect Michigan team in the first ever Big Ten Championship Game. That narrows the field even more.

Same rules apply to the SEC and ACC. Clemson and Georgia Tech could potentially play for the ACC crown, and the de facto SEC Title Game is this year’s “game of the year” between Alabama and LSU.

The Big 12 plays a full round robin schedule, so Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State will whittle themselves down to one.

Throw in Stanford and we can have a maximum of seven perfect teams, with five coming from a BCS conference. Here is the key aspect of blowing up the system. It is not enough to have all those teams finish 12-0. I don’t believe the Big Ten and Pac 12 will raise a ruckus if Stanford and Wisconsin are left out of the title game. Their fans will, but the conferences won’t. Mark my words, they will instead celebrate a Rose Bowl match-up of 12-0 teams.

As for Clemson, it would be hard to argue in favor of them when the ACC has won exactly one BCS game since 1999.

So how do we move forward with a playoff system? As in any walk of life, the most noise will come from those that are the most invested. Why are baseball general managers in Boston and New York held to a higher standard than ones in San Diego or Florida? Because the fans and local media demand more in those cities.

There are two ways this can work, one is to have a one-loss SEC champion in the title game over 12-0 teams from other major conferences. If Wisconsin and Stanford are passed over for other 12-0 teams, there won’t be much of an argument over perfect teams from the SEC and Big 12. Should perfect Big Ten or Pac 12 teams be passed over for one-loss teams, you will hear some outrage from folks playing in the Rose Bowl.

I think the best scenario for change would be an SEC champion with one-loss being left out. The general rules of the BCS would make you believe that is what is supposed to happen, and you would be right. The folks down south would go bonkers if the champ of the league that has won five consecutive crystal footballs was passed over for a team from the Big Ten. If one loss against that brutal league slate allows a team from a weaker conference to pass them over, all hell would break loose.

We don’t need someone to get left out. We don’t need a lot of people to be left out. We need the right team to be left out.. possibly more than once.

Games of the Week

Michigan @ Michigan State - Does this seem familiar to anyone else? Michigan gets off to a great start. Folks around the country start crediting the head coach for turning the program around. The QB is a Heisman candidate. Then.... the bottom falls out. As I predicted here in August, the Wolverines schedule was set up for another fast start. Now, it is time to see if this year is any different. MSU is looking for their first four-game winning streak in this rivalry since 1959-62. Michigan QB Denard Robinson’s ball security will be the difference in this game. He has thrown nine INTs so far (tied for 3rd in the nation). Last year, he threw three picks against the Spartans. MSU is just better, and they are at home. Sparty wins 27-21.

Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest - The Hokies were expected to be in the mix for the ACC title. The Demon Deacons? Not so much. Yet, entering this game, Wake is the one with an unblemished league record. This game will be a test for Wake QB Tanner Price. Wake Forest is 18th in the nation in passing offense, averaging 303.8 yards per game. He will face a Tech team that is second in the ACC with 8 INTs and is tied for tenth in the FBS with 3.0 sacks per game. This will be a tight game, but I just don’t think the Deacons are ready to contend for a championship. The pick here is Va Tech wins 23-20.

Arizona State @ Oregon - Oregon RB LaMichael James is questionable with an injury to his right elbow. James has rushed for over 200 yards in his last three games but was limited to 94 yards last year versus ASU. The Sun Devils are the only team in the Pac 12 South that has yet to lose a conference game this season. Last week, ASU defeated Utah 35-14 with QB Brock Osweiler throwing for 325 yards and three TDs. In the desert, I’d give ASU a serious shot. In Eugene? I like the Ducks with or without James 37-28.

WHAT TO DO NOW

Pitt and Syracuse are out the door, and TCU got as far as the front yard, but turned and ran before they even got on the porch. Here is what the rest of the Big East will do as their league crumbles around them.

UConn - With unstable ground beneath their feet, the Huskies want out. More specifically, they want to follow Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC. Think of the four team pod you could have with Pitt, Cuse, UConn and BC. Now that the other three there have moved, UConn fits nicely. The ACC won’t want an odd number of teams though. The SEC can say all they want about being content with 13 teams, they’re not. UConn will need a 16th team ready to join when they are. Rutgers wants to tag along, but the first thing the Huskies should do is call Notre Dame and let them know, “It’s now or never.” My guess is that ND stays put, but UConn moves on.

Rutgers - If the Scarlet Knights were smart, they would run national ads reminding everyone of the great independence of Notre Dame. For many years, the Irish and their fan base have been proud to remind everyone, they didn’t need a conference. The only shot RU has of getting into the ACC as team #16, is if ND clings to its football independence. I still don’t see a reason for ND to give that up, which is good news for the Scarlet Knights.

Louisville - The Cardinals have a solid all around sports program, but they are not considered a leading candidate for the ACC. The Big 12 is interested, but TCU has been chosen to replace Texas A&M. That brings them back to ten teams. If Missouri leaves, it sounds like BYU is the next choice. This all means that Louisville likely needs the Big 12 to return to being a twelve team league. Some schools already want to go back to twelve teams. Some prefer to stay at ten. I don’t think the money of a league title game will be the tipping point. I think going to 12 continues the push towards stability. Adding teams fleeing the Big East is the complete opposite from where we thought we were headed a month ago.

West Virginia - The Mountaineers are a fascinating case. They have a strong football program with great fan support and national respect. The basketball program is strong too and has a Final Four appearance in the last two years. The problem with WVU is academics. U.S. News and World Report rated West Virginia University 164th in the country (tied with Louisville). That is below every school in the SEC and way below ACC standards. The Big 12 has a few schools in their range (Texas Tech and Kansas State). I think due to geography, Louisville may be invited first. That means WVU would need Missouri to leave for the SEC (or the Big Ten, or anywhere really). Making BYU, Louisville and WVU necessities to get to twelve teams. If those dominos do not fall, a very successful, very supported football program will be without a home. Hello, Conference USA.

South Florida and Cincinnati - Speaking of Conference USA, make room for these two to return. Neither the ACC or the SEC want South Florida when they already have Miami, Florida State and Florida. The Bulls have no appeal to either conference. The same applies to the Bearcats. The only shot they have of avoiding a return to C-USA, is if WVU does somehow mange to get into the SEC. Cincy could be paired with Louisville then to enter the Big 12, but to me that is a long shot.

Games of the Week

Oklahoma vs. Texas - Only three of the last 13 meetings have been decided by less than double digits. Last year, OU jumped out to a 14-0 lead and was up 28-10 in the fourth quarter before UT scored late to make the final 28-20. OU’s offense is fourth in the nation in yards per game with an average of 555 per contest. Texas is 47th with 420.8 with sophomore QB Case McCoy leading the Longhorn attack. Texas has clearly improved from a year ago. They are just too inexperienced all around to keep up with the Sooners in this game. The 2011 edition of the Red River Rivalry goes to OU 31-17.

Florida @ LSU - I know. I know. Florida just got routed at home by Alabama. What makes me think they’ll do any better on the road at LSU with QB John Brantley injured? Honestly? Nothing. It’s two great programs that are both ranked at the moment. Les Miles may just take a gamble at the wrong time to let the Gators hang around. Considering, Florida entered last week with the top rushing offense in the SEC and ended the game with a measly 15 yards, I do not have any faith they can move the ball in this game. LSU should win no problem. I say 24-6.

Ohio State @ Nebraska - Big Red got embarrassed last week at Wisconsin in their Big Ten debut. You know they want to make a better statement with their first home game in league play. The thing is, Ohio State matches up well with the Huskers... sort of. OSU is struggling on offense, but this is not a great NU defense. The Buckeyes defense is still very strong and will keep them in this game, especially if Taylor Martinez is careless with the ball. I think Nebraska wins, but I do not expect a rout. Huskers win 19-10.