PREDICTIONS FOR THE SEASON

September 2, 2009

FINALLY! Another season of college football is upon us. This week, I’m not wasting any time. Here’s how I see the season shaking out.

SEC East – Last year, Florida lost a game at home by one point. Afterwards, QB Tim Tebow gave his famous speech declaring no team would work harder than the Gators. From that point on, they won their eight remaining regular season games by an average margin of 39 points. With an absurd amount of talent back, winning the SEC is a foregone conclusion. The question is whether or not they run the table. With two weeks to prepare for their toughest road game (at LSU on 10/10), I say yes.

SEC West - I see Alabama’s defense being the difference. The Tide won’t head to Atlanta perfect as they did last year, but Ole Miss isn’t used to high expectations. LSU’s schedule is brutal with Bama, Ole Miss and Georgia on the road in addition to home dates with Auburn and Florida. The Rebels will stumble twice. That will keep them out of the SEC Title Game, but IN BCS consideration.

SEC Sleeper – Auburn was a big underachiever last season. New coach Gene Chizik has 15 starters back. Don’t be surprised if they head to Baton Rouge on October 24 with only one loss.

Big 12 South – The whole conference boils down to the Red River Shootout in Dallas on October 17. I’m tempted to take Oklahoma to win the league with no tiebreaker nonsense. They have the talent. They’ll be tested plenty more than Texas before their big game. Plus, they were up two scores on the Horns last year, before LB Ryan Reynolds went down with an injury. However, much like Tim Tebow and Florida, Colt McCoy and TexasMiami last year. This season, they get their showdown with the Gators. are on a mission. They were one second away from

Big 12 North – Talk about a sacrificial lamb. The disparity in talent between the two divisions is amazing. Nebraska will be in the running, but I think the division goes to Kansas. The Jayhawks have a senior QB in Todd Reesing. They don’t play Texas or Oklahoma State, and they get Nebraska at home the week after the Huskers play OU.

Big 12 Sleeper – It’s hard to call a top 10 team a sleeper, but no one believes Oklahoma State can win the league. They can. They always give Texas fits. If the Horns don’t beat OU, they could have two losses by November. If OSU does more than scare the Longhorns, they’ll sit down to Thanksgiving dinner with a shot at a league crown.

Big 10 – Sorry, Nittany Lion fans. It’s going to be Ohio State heading to Pasadena for the first time in 13 years. I believe PSU can even win the match-up on November 7^th and still not take the league crown. PSU is not as talented this year, and the league’s depth has improved. Illinois has the weapons to move the ball on a revamped Lion secondary. Plus, the mother of all trap games awaits JoePa in Evanston. It comes after Michigan and before OSU. Throw in that PSU is 2-9 in the back end of consecutive league road games, and the fact that PSU always has their hands full at NW (last four meetings here were decided by 5 points per game) and that means danger. Prior to the trip to Beaver Stadium, the Bucks only leave the state to face Indiana and Purdue.

Big 10 Sleeper – Last year, Illinois couldn’t sneak up on people. This year the pressure is off. They have as much experience at QB as any team in the nation with Juice Williams, and a stud for him to throw to in Arrelious Benn. If they can go 2-1 in their first three league games (at OSU, PSU and MSU), they’ll be in the thick of it the rest of the way.

Pac 10 – If there was ever a year to take out USC, this is it. The Trojans will start true freshman Matt Barkley at QB, and they return only three starters on defense. By the end of the year, I expect USC to have put it altogether. However, four of their first six games are on the road, including trips to Ohio State, Cal and Notre Dame. With such a tough road schedule, USC will be hard pressed to be in the national title picture. Three or even four losses are a distinct possibility. Watch out for them next year, but in 2009, I’ll take the Cal Bears. Cal has 15 starters back and the best RB in the nation in Jahvid Best.

Pac 10 Sleeper – Watch out for the Stanford Cardinal. Jim Harbaugh has 50 lettermen returning from last year’s 5-7 squad. They have a great chance to start league play 3-0. With Oregon, USC and Cal at the back end of the schedule, expect to see them near the top of the league standings for a while… even if they fade in the end.

ACC Atlantic – Last year, the ACC was the most balanced league in the country. Expect more of the same this season with no dominant teams. Clemson has a new QB, and once again will be good but not great. Florida StateBoston College ending on top thanks in part to a very experienced offensive line. has great talent but a brutal schedule. I see

ACC Coastal – UNC has lost the element of surprise and faces Va Tech and Ga Tech on the road. The Jackets were very impressive last year under first year head coach Paul Johnson. I just don’t see that offense winning a league title. The Hokies have the experience and the schedule to end up in the ACC Final. There, expect Beamer’s boys to best BC for the third consecutive year.

ACC Sleeper – Wake Forest has the formula to return to the league championship game for the first time since 2006. They have an experienced senior QB with lots of experience up front. Plus, their manageable early schedule will have them in the picture until at least Halloween.

Big East – Every team in the Big East is flawed. That’s why none of the league’s eight teams cracked the preseason top 25. Thanks to an easy schedule, good coaching and lack of a better option, the pick is Rutgers. Every other contender for the crown plays in Piscataway. Pitt always underachieves. The Mountaineers are going in the wrong direction under Bill Stewart. South Florida has been a lousy road team in league play, and Cincinnati returns only one defensive starter.

Big East Sleeper - A league this wide open also makes it difficult to pick a sleeper. I’ll take South Florida with a senior QB in Matt Grothe. With only three Big East home games, they better figure out how to win on the road quickly.

The Rest – Notre Dame will beat USC this year. You read that right. I’m not as crazy as Lou Holtz or Beano Cook picking the Irish to play Florida in the BCS Championship game, but 10-2 and a BCS bid is definitely within reach. As for the non-BCS conferences, the Mountain West has talented teams, but Utah, BYU and TCU will be hard pressed to be perfect. The Boise State Broncos on the other hand will use an opening night win over Oregon to spring board back to the BCS.

BCS Championship Game – Florida (SEC Champ) over Texas (Big 12 Champ)

Rose Bowl – Ohio State (Big 10 Champ) vs. California (Pac 10 Champ)

Sugar Bowl – Mississippi (At-large) vs. Rutgers (Big East Champ)

Fiesta Bowl – Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Boise State (At-large)

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech (ACC Champ) vs. Oklahoma (At-large)

Capital One Bowl – Penn State vs. Alabama

Outback Bowl – Illinois vs. Georgia

Cotton Bowl – Oklahoma State vs. LSU

Gator Bowl – Pitt vs. Georgia Tech

Holiday Bowl – USC vs. Kansas

Normally, I’ll give you three games to watch that weekend. If you simply scroll down to my first blog entry, you’ll see the reasons why this week’s selected games are Oregon at Boise State, Virginia Tech versus Alabama (in Atlanta) and Miami at Florida State. Here’s a new weekly feature.

Upset Alert – Western Michigan @ Michigan – Someone once said, “If you have two quarterbacks, you have NO quarterbacks.” That’s not always true. However, there’s no question that if you have three quarterbacks, you really have no quarterbacks. Michigan is expected to play junior Nick Sheridan as well as freshmen Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson. WMU has beaten Illinois, Iowa and Virginia over the last three seasons. They’ve also played at Nebraska, Missouri and West Virginia. The quietest 100,000 people in college football will not intimidate them at all. If there truly is dissension in the Wolverine locker room, Rich Rodriguez may have more to cry about when this one is over.