WHAT I KNOW

September 18, 2012

We are three weeks into the season. Don’t be fooled by the national experts. It is possible to learn a few things from these early season games. Here is a list of a few things I know, some things I think I know and a couple things I can’t figure out.

What I know - 

1. The Big Ten isn’t very good. I don’t think you needed me to tell you that, but in case you are wavering on this at all, here is the evidence. The Big Ten’s best wins so far are over Boise State, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Boston College and Cal. Three of those wins came from Northwestern. The bad losses are too numerous to list here. They only undefeated team left in the league (Ohio State) is ineligible for the postseason. 
2. If he hadn’t landed (bought) Cam Newton, Gene Chizik would be coaching his final games at Auburn. Remember everyone laughing at Auburn when they hired a guy from Iowa State who had gone 5-19 in two years? You likely forgot after the 2010 title season. His other years at Auburn, Chizik has gone 7-5 (3-5 in SEC), 7-5 (with a miracle comeback against Utah State) and is already 1-2 this year. I’d say he owes his salary to Cam, but I think Newton has been paid enough.
3. If Penn State avoids a losing record, it will be due to the #1 thing I know listed above. They have a walk-on at QB, started three different guys at TB (including a walk on and the FB), have no kicker, no punter and lack any depth in the secondary. It is a good year for PSU to be in the Big Ten.

What I think I know - 

1. This is the most talented Notre Dame team in at least six years. They may finish with the same record they had a year ago, but the Irish are much improved in the front seven. They look strong up front defensively, and unlike last year, they aren’t beating themselves with turnovers. If they can make Denard Robinson beat them with his arm, (and their DBs actually turn and look for the ball, unlike last year) they can be 4-0.
2. Florida may challenge for more than the SEC East this year. No one has better back-to-back wins than the Gators beating Texas A&M and Tennessee on the road. One peek at the schedule, and you will see they only leave the state once more this year to play Vanderbilt. I expect them to give LSU a great game in the Swamp on October 6.
3. Even though Alabama and LSU may be the two best teams in the country again, there is no way the voters will give us another rematch. If the winner of their game is the lone unbeaten, and the loser has no other losses, one could argue for a rematch. However, there is no way voters give us that a second time... right?

What I can’t figure out - 

1. How in the world has Kentucky become (at best) the 3rd best college football team in their own state? I realize they are a basketball school. I also realize they don’t have a long winning tradition, but they are an SEC team. They can’t field a decent team by simply asking a recruit, “Want to play in the SEC?” Maybe once in a while, Louisville can put together a team to challenge you, but how do you lose at home to the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky? I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt that they could beat Eastern Kentucky.
2. Is Colorado the worst BCS conference team of the BCS era? It is easy to say no. Duke’s 0-12 squad in 2006 has to be in the conversation, but take a look at the Buffs’ resume. Losing by one score to an in-state rival like CSU isn’t horrible. Since then, they lost at home to Sacramento State of the Big Sky Conference. Last week, they was crushed 69-14 by mighty Fresno State. With only league games left, 0-12 is looking very real. It is hard to compare teams from different leagues and different years. Honestly, these teams are so bad, I prefer not to dwell on this question.
3. Who is the best first year coach in the Pac 12? Arizona, ASU and UCLA are a combined 8-1 with wins over Illinois, Oklahoma State and Nebraska. The lone defeat? A 24-20 defeat at Missouri. All three teams are opening eyes. Time will tell, who is the best. As of today, I can’t tell between Rodriguez, Graham and Mora. Stay tuned.

Games of the Week:

Clemson @ Florida State - I could have included “how good is Florida State” in my list of things I haven’t figured out. They have dominated two FCS schools and Wake Forest. Clemson has a win over Auburn, but how good are they? This one should tell us a lot about both teams. The home team is 9-1 in the last ten meetings. FSU looks great defensively, and I think that has more to do with their talent than with their opponents. It is in Tallahassee. I think the Noles win 24-10.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma -The Wildcats are riding high at 3-0. A win here by KSU and they should be 6-0 when they go to Morgantown on October 20. The Sooners have won five straight in this series by an average of 22 points per game. Before the season began, many people (myself included) considered OU a national title contender. An opening week struggle with UTEP caused some to abandon ship. I think Oklahoma is primed to jump back into the BCS Title talk. I like the Sooners 34-24.

Arizona @ Oregon - The Ducks have won four straight in this Pac 12 series, but both teams have put points on the board. The average score of those games has been 51-37. Arizona is 3-0 with an impressive 59-38 thumping of Oklahoma State. Rich Rodriguez’s team can score, but we all know the Ducks can too. The game is at Autzen Stadium. If you plan on staying up on the east coast to watch this one, you may see the sun rise. My prediction... points... Oregon 52-44.