THE MORE THINGS CHANGE...

September 26, 2012

...the more they stay the same. That should be the new mantra of the upcoming four team playoff in college football. Don’t get me wrong. I am very excited about the playoff aspect. In fact, as you can see from this link, http://www.collegefootballsvoiceofreason.blogspot.com/2009/08/four-is-all-i-need.html, I called for this three years ago.

The playoff aspect isn’t the problem. The problem is that while everyone is enjoying the current season knowing that things will get infinitely better in two shorts years, they have missed out on the ramifications of some recent announcements.

First of all, conferences continue to sign deals with major bowls. This is locking in at least one if not two teams from the five major conferences. I was surprised to hear that since the ACC Champion has a deal with the Orange Bowl, if the Orange Bowl is a semifinal, the ACC champ must be chosen for the bowl rotation regardless of ranking. That sounds an awful lot like an automatic qualifying conference. In fact, with the Big 10-Pac 12 Rose Bowl deal and the SEC-Big 12 Champions Bowl pact, you have five conferences that are still guaranteed a spot in the bowl rotation.

It all sounded so perfect originally. There will be six bowls involved. Two will be semifinals. The other four will pit other high ranked teams. There will be three games on New Year’s Eve and three on New Year’s Day, and semifinals will be split to one per day. 

Now we have plenty of conference deals, and even a seventh bowl in the mix. Why? The highest rated champion from the Big East, MWC, Conference USA, MAC and Sun Belt needs a game. 

Wasn’t this the issue with the BCS? They added more games. They watered down the match-ups. They by-passed better teams from one conference to get teams from a power conference. Remember the Sugar Bowl last year between Michigan and Virginia Tech? 

We are heading down that road again. Will the committee that selects teams for the non-playoff bowls give open bids to deserving teams? If so, how many openings will there be? Looking at this year’s current rankings, we are already looking at #19 Louisville being guaranteed a spot, as well as #17 Clemson. 

The upside (besides a better system to determine a champion) is that actually lifting the cap on two teams maximum per conference. In the current system, Georgia at number five would be passed over. I just hope it will finally be about giving us some good match-ups as opposed to spreading the bids to less deserving leagues.

If the system were in place this year, here is how the seven games may look.

Semifinal #1 (in Cowboys Stadium) - Alabama vs. Florida State

Semifinal #2 (in Georgia Dome) - Oregon vs. LSU

Rose Bowl - Nebraska vs. Stanford

Sugar Bowl - Georgia vs. Kansas State

Orange Bowl - Clemson vs. Notre Dame

Fiesta Bowl - Louisville vs. Oklahoma

Added Bowl (likely in Houston) - South Carolina vs. West Virginia

Here is how the current bowls would look this year.

BCS Championship - Alabama vs. Oregon

Rose Bowl - Nebraska vs. Stanford

Sugar Bowl - LSU vs. Texas

Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State vs. Notre Dame

Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Louisville

Games of the Week:

Stanford @ Washington - A great game kicks off the weekend on Thursday night. The Cardinal have won three straight in Seattle including 41-0 in 2010. Last year, Stanford embarrassed the Huskies 65-21.Washington junior QB Keith Price is dangerous. He will test the Cardinal defense in ways that Matt Barkley did not. Stanford has been hearing how great they are for 12 days. I think this will be close, but the Stanford D will be up to the task. I like Stanford 26-21. 

Tennessee @ Georgia -The statement game for the Vols was looking good for three quarters against Florida... then came the 4th quarter, and the wheels came off. Now, the Vols are labeled as a dangerous offensive team that still can’t beat the elite of the SEC. The good news is they get another chance here to open some eyes. Georgia is legit. Aaron Murray is an experienced signal caller. Georgia’s D got four players back from suspension recently. They are a legit threat to LSU and Alabama for SEC supremacy. I think it’s a Dawg kind of day. Georgia wins 28-14.

Ohio State @ Michigan State - This is how slow a week it is. I’m taking a Big Ten game. The Buckeyes (although not eligible for the post-season) may be the league’s most talented team. They have not been overly impressive the last two weeks as they struggled with Cal and UAB. The Spartans were shut down by Notre Dame two weeks ago and followed that up by getting a scare from Eastern Michigan. OSU has won three straight in East Lansing by an average score of 38-11. Defenses should dominate because I’m not sure either team can move the ball thru the air. I think the Buckeyes survive 21-19.