ND TO THE ACC

September 12, 2012

Expansion is back. Sort of. Notre Dame has joined the ACC. Kind of. The ACC is now a stable conference that does not have to worry about losing teams to other leagues. We think.

The Fighting Irish will join the ACC for all sports outside of football and hockey. Some have questioned the ACC for allowing ND to once again dictate the terms of league affiliation. It is worth noting the same deal was on the table from the Big 12.  It is also worth noting that being affiliated with Notre Dame is not a bad thing. The Big Ten and the SEC make enough money and receive enough national exposure that making a similar style of pact with Notre Dame is not worthwhile. 

There are some aspects of this announcement I believe are being overblown, and others I believe are being glossed over.

Fans hear that Notre Dame will be eligible for ACC bowl tie-ins “outside the BCS,” and they respond with, “Who cares about those bowls?” There’s a major difference between the Big East tie-ins that ND had previously and what they have now. The Irish are eligible for the Chick-Fil-A Bowl to potentially play an SEC team. That bowl in itself is light years ahead of what the Big East has. 

The part I think is being overblown in this story is the schedule. Notre Dame has agreed to play five games against ACC teams each year. The public has assumed there will be a few traditional games dropped from their annual schedule. However, if you look at their current schedule, Notre Dame is playing Miami, Wake Forest, Boston College and Pitt (the Panthers are joining the ACC). That tells me there may be a minor tweak to their schedule annually, but it does not mean they are replacing Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue with Clemson, Maryland and NC State. Expect them to play fewer Big Ten teams every year, but they won’t drop those games completely.

As for the stability of the league, the $50 million exit fee announced today was clearly a warning shot to any other conference that may have eyes on a current ACC school. Within hours of the Notre Dame announcement, folks at Florida State were complaining about the new exit fee. Even if that remains the cost of leaving, the SEC will be launching a billion dollar TV network in a couple of years. If they really want to get to 16 teams, I still think they will make it happen.

The final aspect of this deal that has puzzled some is that they will have 15 basketball teams and seem fine with it. There are two reasons this makes sense to me. First of all, remember that the ACC played with nine teams from the time Florida State joined in 1991 until Miami and Virginia Tech were added in 2004. Playing with an odd number of teams is not foreign to them. 

Plus, leaving the number of teams at 15, keeps the door open for the future. This makes it pretty clear that if the day finally comes when Notre Dame decides it would be more beneficial for its football program to be in a conference, they will be joining the ACC. So, rather than add Villanova or Georgetown in basketball to get to 16, why not stay at 15 until the Irish want to go all in? Then you can choose the best fit for your 16th school in all sports.

This seems like a win win for both sides to me.

Games of the Week:

Florida @ Tennessee - Last week the Gators spoiled the party in College Station. Can they play party pooper again? The Vols are 2-0. They are healthy. They are hungry. They are at home. They need this. UT Head Coach Derek Dooley reallllllly needs this. Florida has won the last seven meetings with the last five all decided by double digits. I like the Vols to pull this one out. They have their work cut out the rest of the year, but at least on this day, they’ll finally “sing Rocky Top all night long.” UT wins 27-23.

Notre Dame @ Michigan State -The Spartans are the Big Ten’s last hope. The rest of the league has been an embarrassment in non-league play. The MSU defense is being described by some as the best outside of the SEC. Notre Dame has experience and always seems to play well in East Lansing. Last year, MSU was held to a season low of 29 yards rushing. Sparty will control the line of scrimmage and control the game. I expect an MSU win 26-17.

USC @ Stanford - It is easy to dismiss the Cardinal without Andrew Luck. After a rough opening week against San Jose State. Stanford bounced back to beat Duke handily 50-13. There is no question the USC offense is as potent as any in the nation. However, last weekend against Syracuse, their defense showed its vulnerability surrendering 27 first downs and 455 total yards. I think the Trojans will win behind Matt Barkley, but it won’t be a rout. I say USC 42-31.