DON'T EVEN START

In the back of my mind, I had this topic scheduled for the week of November 12th. I had to bump it up in the rotation once fans and media started talking about a possible LSU-Alabama rematch in the BCS Championship Game.

Those people that know me are aware there a bunch of things in the college football world that I despise. Calling divisions Leaders and Legends, moving bowl games off of New Year’s Day, teams that won’t leave the state for a non-league game and Michigan are all on that list. Atop that list is rematches.

There are 120 FBS teams. That means in a twelve game season, you will only play ten percent of the other teams competing for a national title. Add those numbers to the fact that the biggest complaint about college football is that “it’s not settled on the field.” When you have a rematch, you have two teams that have already settled it on the field.

I understand some rematches cannot be helped. In the age of conference championship games, they will happen more and more. I am not a fan of those, but the teams will have earned their spot in the game by winning the division. In bowl games, why would you choose a rematch over giving another team a chance to do the job?

“But, isn’t the purpose of the championship game to match the two best teams?” No. It is to match the two most deserving teams. USC may have been one of the top teams in the nation in 2006, 2007 and 2008, but they were not chosen for the championship game. Why? There were other teams more deserving of the spot based on not just who they played, but when and where they lost.

I made these same exact arguments in 2006 when Ohio State and Michigan played that classic game decided by three points in Columbus. The questions began. Should they play again? If voters had followed that line of thinking, Florida never would have had their chance to rout the Buckeyes. Do I think Oklahoma, Clemson or Wisconsin will beat Alabama or LSU? No. Do they deserve the chance to step on the field with the SEC Champ? Absolutely.

I would rather see Boise State lose to Alabama by fifty, than see two teams from the same conference play for a second time over other league champions. The SEC is without a doubt the best conference in college football, but that does not mean no one else should be afforded the opportunity to challenge them for the crystal football.

Games of the Week

Wisconsin @ Michigan State - Through the first six games, Wisconsin has averaged 50.2 points and 523 yards per game. They also have only played one game outside of Camp Randall Stadium, and that was to face Northern Illinois at Soldier Field. The Spartans are the last team to beat the Badgers in the regular season. MSU has a defense that will challenge Russell Wilson, Monte Ball and company. They are second in the nation in total defense with 21 sacks and 8 interceptions, but they will play without DE William Gholston. Expect a rematch in Indianapolis, but that one will finish the same as this one. Wisconsin 23-21.

Washington @ Stanford - Washington is going in the right direction with Coach Steve Sarkisian. Even after losing Jake Locker to the NFL, the Huskies are 5-1 and 3-0 in Pac 12 play. This game will match the two highest rated passers in the conference in UW’s Keith Price and Stanford’s Andrew Luck. The key in this game is the Stanford defense. They are allowing just 294.8 yards and 11.2 points per game. With the game in Palo Alto, I like the Cardinal and future Dolphin Andrew Luck 35-26.

USC @ Notre Dame -The Irish finally broke through last year and ended USC’s eight game winning streak in the series. Matt Barkley was unable to play in this match-up last year due to a bum ankle. The Irish struggled early this year with unforced errors. They finally seem to have that under control. They had two weeks to prepare for this game, and it is the first night game in South Bend in twenty years. USC will be in this one the whole way, but ND prevails 31-28.

THE PERFECT STORM?

Is this the year it happens? We all have waited, analyzed, hoped and prayed for a year when the BCS just imploded. In 2007, each time a new team reached the top of the mountain, an underdog was there to take them down. All that year proved (as I have explained in this column in the past) was that in a playoff system, none of those upsets would have mattered. All of those teams would have qualified for an 8-team playoff.

However, 2011 has the makings of the perfect storm. As of today, there are thirteen unbeaten teams in the top 25. If we end up with multiple undefeated teams from BCS conferences that get shut out of the BCS Title Game, that could be the impetus needed to take down the current system.

Before you get overly excited, realize that it is impossible for all thirteen teams to remain undefeated. Let’s look at what could happen if the maximum number of teams stay perfect.

First thing we have to do is pencil in Houston to the Liberty Bowl. The Cougars don’t have the clout or the non-league schedule to crash the BCS party. They are ranked 25th at the moment and only one team remaining on their schedule (SMU) has a winning record.

Boise State has garnered enough national respect to slip into the title game, but only if there is one unbeaten team from a BCS conference left in December.

Now, on to the BCS leagues. The Big Ten has three undefeateds as of today (Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan). In past years, we would have to check the schedule of all teams involved to see if they were scheduled to play this season. Under the new divisional set up, Wisconsin and Illinois play on November 19. If the winner finishes 12-0, they could face a perfect Michigan team in the first ever Big Ten Championship Game. That narrows the field even more.

Same rules apply to the SEC and ACC. Clemson and Georgia Tech could potentially play for the ACC crown, and the de facto SEC Title Game is this year’s “game of the year” between Alabama and LSU.

The Big 12 plays a full round robin schedule, so Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State will whittle themselves down to one.

Throw in Stanford and we can have a maximum of seven perfect teams, with five coming from a BCS conference. Here is the key aspect of blowing up the system. It is not enough to have all those teams finish 12-0. I don’t believe the Big Ten and Pac 12 will raise a ruckus if Stanford and Wisconsin are left out of the title game. Their fans will, but the conferences won’t. Mark my words, they will instead celebrate a Rose Bowl match-up of 12-0 teams.

As for Clemson, it would be hard to argue in favor of them when the ACC has won exactly one BCS game since 1999.

So how do we move forward with a playoff system? As in any walk of life, the most noise will come from those that are the most invested. Why are baseball general managers in Boston and New York held to a higher standard than ones in San Diego or Florida? Because the fans and local media demand more in those cities.

There are two ways this can work, one is to have a one-loss SEC champion in the title game over 12-0 teams from other major conferences. If Wisconsin and Stanford are passed over for other 12-0 teams, there won’t be much of an argument over perfect teams from the SEC and Big 12. Should perfect Big Ten or Pac 12 teams be passed over for one-loss teams, you will hear some outrage from folks playing in the Rose Bowl.

I think the best scenario for change would be an SEC champion with one-loss being left out. The general rules of the BCS would make you believe that is what is supposed to happen, and you would be right. The folks down south would go bonkers if the champ of the league that has won five consecutive crystal footballs was passed over for a team from the Big Ten. If one loss against that brutal league slate allows a team from a weaker conference to pass them over, all hell would break loose.

We don’t need someone to get left out. We don’t need a lot of people to be left out. We need the right team to be left out.. possibly more than once.

Games of the Week

Michigan @ Michigan State - Does this seem familiar to anyone else? Michigan gets off to a great start. Folks around the country start crediting the head coach for turning the program around. The QB is a Heisman candidate. Then.... the bottom falls out. As I predicted here in August, the Wolverines schedule was set up for another fast start. Now, it is time to see if this year is any different. MSU is looking for their first four-game winning streak in this rivalry since 1959-62. Michigan QB Denard Robinson’s ball security will be the difference in this game. He has thrown nine INTs so far (tied for 3rd in the nation). Last year, he threw three picks against the Spartans. MSU is just better, and they are at home. Sparty wins 27-21.

Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest - The Hokies were expected to be in the mix for the ACC title. The Demon Deacons? Not so much. Yet, entering this game, Wake is the one with an unblemished league record. This game will be a test for Wake QB Tanner Price. Wake Forest is 18th in the nation in passing offense, averaging 303.8 yards per game. He will face a Tech team that is second in the ACC with 8 INTs and is tied for tenth in the FBS with 3.0 sacks per game. This will be a tight game, but I just don’t think the Deacons are ready to contend for a championship. The pick here is Va Tech wins 23-20.

Arizona State @ Oregon - Oregon RB LaMichael James is questionable with an injury to his right elbow. James has rushed for over 200 yards in his last three games but was limited to 94 yards last year versus ASU. The Sun Devils are the only team in the Pac 12 South that has yet to lose a conference game this season. Last week, ASU defeated Utah 35-14 with QB Brock Osweiler throwing for 325 yards and three TDs. In the desert, I’d give ASU a serious shot. In Eugene? I like the Ducks with or without James 37-28.

WHAT TO DO NOW

Pitt and Syracuse are out the door, and TCU got as far as the front yard, but turned and ran before they even got on the porch. Here is what the rest of the Big East will do as their league crumbles around them.

UConn - With unstable ground beneath their feet, the Huskies want out. More specifically, they want to follow Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC. Think of the four team pod you could have with Pitt, Cuse, UConn and BC. Now that the other three there have moved, UConn fits nicely. The ACC won’t want an odd number of teams though. The SEC can say all they want about being content with 13 teams, they’re not. UConn will need a 16th team ready to join when they are. Rutgers wants to tag along, but the first thing the Huskies should do is call Notre Dame and let them know, “It’s now or never.” My guess is that ND stays put, but UConn moves on.

Rutgers - If the Scarlet Knights were smart, they would run national ads reminding everyone of the great independence of Notre Dame. For many years, the Irish and their fan base have been proud to remind everyone, they didn’t need a conference. The only shot RU has of getting into the ACC as team #16, is if ND clings to its football independence. I still don’t see a reason for ND to give that up, which is good news for the Scarlet Knights.

Louisville - The Cardinals have a solid all around sports program, but they are not considered a leading candidate for the ACC. The Big 12 is interested, but TCU has been chosen to replace Texas A&M. That brings them back to ten teams. If Missouri leaves, it sounds like BYU is the next choice. This all means that Louisville likely needs the Big 12 to return to being a twelve team league. Some schools already want to go back to twelve teams. Some prefer to stay at ten. I don’t think the money of a league title game will be the tipping point. I think going to 12 continues the push towards stability. Adding teams fleeing the Big East is the complete opposite from where we thought we were headed a month ago.

West Virginia - The Mountaineers are a fascinating case. They have a strong football program with great fan support and national respect. The basketball program is strong too and has a Final Four appearance in the last two years. The problem with WVU is academics. U.S. News and World Report rated West Virginia University 164th in the country (tied with Louisville). That is below every school in the SEC and way below ACC standards. The Big 12 has a few schools in their range (Texas Tech and Kansas State). I think due to geography, Louisville may be invited first. That means WVU would need Missouri to leave for the SEC (or the Big Ten, or anywhere really). Making BYU, Louisville and WVU necessities to get to twelve teams. If those dominos do not fall, a very successful, very supported football program will be without a home. Hello, Conference USA.

South Florida and Cincinnati - Speaking of Conference USA, make room for these two to return. Neither the ACC or the SEC want South Florida when they already have Miami, Florida State and Florida. The Bulls have no appeal to either conference. The same applies to the Bearcats. The only shot they have of avoiding a return to C-USA, is if WVU does somehow mange to get into the SEC. Cincy could be paired with Louisville then to enter the Big 12, but to me that is a long shot.

Games of the Week

Oklahoma vs. Texas - Only three of the last 13 meetings have been decided by less than double digits. Last year, OU jumped out to a 14-0 lead and was up 28-10 in the fourth quarter before UT scored late to make the final 28-20. OU’s offense is fourth in the nation in yards per game with an average of 555 per contest. Texas is 47th with 420.8 with sophomore QB Case McCoy leading the Longhorn attack. Texas has clearly improved from a year ago. They are just too inexperienced all around to keep up with the Sooners in this game. The 2011 edition of the Red River Rivalry goes to OU 31-17.

Florida @ LSU - I know. I know. Florida just got routed at home by Alabama. What makes me think they’ll do any better on the road at LSU with QB John Brantley injured? Honestly? Nothing. It’s two great programs that are both ranked at the moment. Les Miles may just take a gamble at the wrong time to let the Gators hang around. Considering, Florida entered last week with the top rushing offense in the SEC and ended the game with a measly 15 yards, I do not have any faith they can move the ball in this game. LSU should win no problem. I say 24-6.

Ohio State @ Nebraska - Big Red got embarrassed last week at Wisconsin in their Big Ten debut. You know they want to make a better statement with their first home game in league play. The thing is, Ohio State matches up well with the Huskers... sort of. OSU is struggling on offense, but this is not a great NU defense. The Buckeyes defense is still very strong and will keep them in this game, especially if Taylor Martinez is careless with the ball. I think Nebraska wins, but I do not expect a rout. Huskers win 19-10.

RANDOM THOUGHTS ON THE NITTANY LIONS

I normally have one focused subject each week. This time I realized I have a bunch of thoughts about the state of the Nittany Lions as they begin conference play. Here they are in no particular order.

Both QBs really miss Brett Brackett. I never thought I’d say that about a guy that only saw significant time his senior year, but he was a possession receiver with good size and great hands. I don’t recall too many times this year when a WR bailed out McGloin or Bolden with a great catch.

Silas Redd is going to be fun to watch. The real pleasant surprise is that Beachum and Dukes have looked strong too. Even without Stephfon Green, this is the deepest PSU TB group since when? LJ, Easy and McCoo? Enis, Archie and Pitts?

As for the quarterbacks, McGloin was just what the team needed last year. They were young and tentative. He brought a swagger that got them a few victories they wouldn’t have had otherwise. This year they need a QB. ONE QB. I thought Bolden was the guy to get the job. He has a higher ceiling than McGloin, but I can’t make that argument now. He has been outplayed the last two weeks. Although, after charting all pass plays last week, it is clear that McGloin has benefited from play-calling. Last week, three of his first four passes were play action. Three of Bolden’s first four were screens and a five-yard out pattern. McGloin was asked to throw on third down three times, none of which was longer than 3rd and five. Still, McGloin has moved the offense better and deserves more time.

The defense is light years ahead of where they were last season. They are confident and aggressive. Last year, they looked slow and unsure of themselves. It didn’t help that the few play makers they had battled injuries. Hopefully, the loss of Mauti isn’t the start of similar problems this season. Without him, they need Devon Still to continue playing like a beast. He has dominated from the DT spot as Odrick and Kennedy did before him.

Two of the next three games should be wins. Thank God for football in the Hoosier state. The Iowa game could swing the season either way. Lose it? They may be lucky to get to .500. Win it? You may be looking at a 7-1, 4-0 team when Illinois comes to town.

Lastly, I’m over the whole JoePa injury storyline. At the Temple game, he stayed in the press box at halftime because it was too far of a trek to get to the locker room and back. How much coaching are you actually doing if you aren’t even going to address the team after the first thirty minutes? JoePa IS PSU, but I hope more and more that he steps down after this season.

Games of the Week

Nebraska @ Wisconsin - History in Madison. It is the Huskers first league game as a member of the Big Ten Conference. Wisconsin has won its first four games by an average of 49-9. The Badger defense ranks in the top ten in three of four major categories. The Huskers meanwhile, have been inconsistent defensively. QB Taylor Martinez is capable of making a big play at any time, but he is also capable of making a mistake that swings the momentum the other way. This game is huge for Wisconsin and the conference. Can the new kid beat the defending champ on their field when they have BCS Title Game aspirations? I think the Badgers give Big Red a taste of what is to come... a longer debut season than they anticipated. Badgers win 27-17.

Alabama @ Florida - Something has to give here. Alabama is 3rd in the BCS in rush defense. Florida is tied for fifth. The Gators lead the SEC in rushing with 259 yards per game. Bama is second with 230.8 per game. This may be the Tide’s toughest road game of the year (Auburn is still likely in the top spot). Alabama is not as explosive offensively as they have been as recently as last season. Richardson is a game breaker, but so are Demps and Rainey. The Swamp gives Florida an edge, but I like Bama to pull it out with a late FG 24-21.

Clemson @ Virginia Tech - Clemson is 4-0 with consecutive wins over Auburn and Florida State. In the those wins, the Tigers amassed almost 1,100 yards of total offense. while converting 23 of 35 third down conversions. QB Tajh Boyd leads the ACC with 13 TDs and 1,255 yards. The Hokies have yet to face a serious threat with wins over Appalachian State, East Carolina, Arkansas State and Marshall. Clemson winning back to back big games was rare. Three in a row? I can’t see it. Hokies bring them back to reality 23-20.

NOW WHAT?

For the third time in less than two years, we were on the brink. The college football landscape was about shift to superconferences. Everyone had said it was only a matter of time, and time was up. Or so we thought.

Once again most of the rumors of deals were just that. The key this time is that there was still just enough movement to leave the door open to more. In some cases, it is almost a certainty.

Let’s take a look at the six BCS conferences, and see what is the next move.

BIG 10 - Jim Delaney was playing a round of golf this weekend as the rest of the BCS leagues were scrambling to hold onto teams or steal someone else’s. What does that mean? The Big Ten made its move last year when they landed Nebraska. They got a major brand with a huge, rabid fan base. Plus, it got them to 12 teams, so they could play a conference title game. They are as content as you can be. Outside of Notre Dame, there isn’t a single school that could become available that would be a guaranteed slam dunk for the league the way Nebraska was in 2010 or the way Penn State was in 1990.

PAC 12 - They flirted with the idea of becoming the Pac 16 last year. Then Texas, Oklahoma and company decided to stay put. This time, it was the Pac 12 that decided twelve teams was enough for them. Mostly because Texas didn’t want to give up or share their new network and without them, the Pac 12 didn’t want Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

BIG 12 - With the threat of moving to the Pac 12 gone, Oklahoma suddenly told the world they were just using that threat as leverage to fix the Big 12. Sure. (I believe that the way I believe Jim Tressel lied to keep his players safe as opposed to keeping them eligible.) Now, it appears the Big 12 will stay together. A major issue it faces going forward (along with trust, a commissioner that has been run off and the Longhorn Network) is replacing Texas A&M. One idea would be to replace one Texas school with another and reach out to TCU. The school that seems to be the first choice though is BYU. Why not? BYU is more of a national brand. It doesn’t sound like they will go above 10 right now, but one thing that is a must if they return to a two division format is they must split up Texas and Oklahoma.

SEC - So, Texas A&M is team #13. It also looks like team #14 will not be determined in time to join next fall. The only way you can play an 8-game league schedule with 13 teams is either scrap the two divisions or play an imbalanced schedule. In the latter case, some schools would not play everyone else in their division. What does that mean? Don’t expect the SEC to stay at 13 for more than one year. So who is in their sights? Reports are that West Virginia has already been shot down by the SEC. I believe their top two choices would be Virginia Tech or Missouri. The ACC may even be anticipating losing the Hokies or someone else by expanding first.

ACC - Pitt and Syracuse? Really? Wow! Who saw that coming? That was the equivalent of Duke and North Carolina bolting for the Big East. This was a “kill or be killed” decision. If we are headed down a path where the best conferences have 16 teams, some of the current BCS leagues would not survive. Now the ACC has enough teams to survive poaching from the SEC. If they need more teams, expect UConn and Rutgers to be up next.

BIG EAST - Once again the ACC has thrown the Big East into chaos. What the league does next is critical. If they don’t find solid replacements, it could lead to more defections or the loss of their automatic BCS bid. That is why I can’t understand the talk of adding Navy and Air Force as football-only members. East Carolina has applied for membership. They would be a solid addition. They have a good program with a strong following. The Pirates 2010 attendance was higher than five of the eight Big East teams. Central Florida is also a popular suggestion. Both would be better options long term than the service academies. Villanova has flirted with moving up to the FBS level. That is still a valid idea. It should not be a replacement move, just an addition once new teams are added.

Games of the Week

LSU @ West Virginia - Last year LSU led 17-0 and held on to win 20-14. WVU ran four plays or less on 10 of their 13 possessions. There is no question LSU is even stronger defensively this year. They are also battle tested with wins over Oregon and Mississippi State. WVU QB Geno Smith may be the top offensive player in the Big East. A rowdy Morgantown crowd will keep the Mountaineers in the game, but only for a while. LSU continues to dominate outside the SEC. I like the Tigers 24-6.

Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M - OSU has won the last three meetings with the last two being decided by a total of eight points. Cowboys QB Brandon Weeden has thrown for over 350 yards in three straight games. He has only been sacked three times thru three games. The Aggies will look to add to that total. They have 11 sacks in their two games. The game is in College Station, and A&M definitely plays more defense. That is enough for me. Aggies go to 3-0 with a 35-30 win.

Florida State @ Clemson - The Noles put up a fight last week... at least defensively, but it wasn’t enough. Oklahoma escaped with a big road win. Now, FSU enters Death Valley, and they may be without QB E.J. Manuel due to a bum shoulder. The Tigers are 7-17 versus FSU, but they have won the last three at home. Clemson gained 624 yards last week in a victory over defending BCS champ Auburn. The Noles are hurting physically and emotionally. If they pull this one out on the road, give Jimbo Fisher all the credit. I see Clemson taking it 26-20.

HOW QUICKLY WE FORGET... OR SO THEY HOPED

-"We are proud and pleased to be offered an invitation to join the Big Eight conference," said Thomas R. Powers of Houston, chairman of the Board of Regents and chief executive officer of TransAmerica Fund Management Co. "We feel it will offer us an opportunity to increase exposure on a national basis and provide our alumni and students an opportunity to be a part of one of the major national conferences.”

-"We are certainly saddened by the demise of the Southwest Conference," Powers said. "I think it was something that was going to happen sooner or later.”

-"We certainly wish those who did not receive an invitation well. I feel sure they are fine institutions and they will find a place in some other program that will be appropriate for them."

Those quotes ran in the Houston Chronicle on February 24, 1994. What school was Thomas R. Powers representing? Baylor!

That’s right. Less than twenty years ago, Baylor was the first Southwest Conference institution to apply for membership in the Big 8 Conference. Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech would soon follow.

“Those who did not receive an invitation” referred to Houston, SMU, TCU and Rice. Funny isn’t it? Keeping 100 year old traditions alive didn’t seem too important then. They were excited about playing Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and their new conference rivals.

Would they be threatening lawsuits or preaching about keeping Texas rivals together if the Pac 16 wanted them to join the fray? Not a chance. In fact, if they weren’t being left out in the cold, you could use the same quotes above and just change Big 8 to Pac 12 and Southwest Conference to Big 12.

To be completely fair though, Baylor is in a desperate situation. Do I expect these tactics to keep the Big 12 together? Not a chance. However, it may buy them time to figure out their best option when the league falls apart.

What is that best option? Let’s face it. No other major conference wants them. So, immediately we can rule out the Big Ten and SEC. There is an outside chance the Big East takes them in. Why not? They already have TCU on the way. Word is they are more interested in the northern teams in the Big 12 (Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri).

There really would only be two reasonable options, neither of which they will like. One is the Mountain West Conference. The problem there is that it has undergone a major overhaul itself. Utah, BYU and TCU are gone (or are leaving), and Boise State, Nevada and Fresno State are on the way. Basically, Baylor would leave one unstable league for a weaker unstable league.

The second option would be Conference USA. They already have UTEP, Houston and SMU. That could be a drawback though. Not for Baylor, but the league. Do you want a fourth Texas school? Would two schools that were left in the dust in 1994 want to give them a home? If they do? Who else could they add to get to 14? My guess would be Troy, but that’s a topic for some other blog. (Just kidding. I am fascinated by expansion, but even I won’t stoop to Conference USA expansion stories.)

All Baylor really needs is to still be able to play the Texas schools leaving them behind. I doubt they could keep all three of their in-state brethren on the schedule every year, but getting at least one on their schedule at all times should keep ticket sales up. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they work out that agreement in exchange for waving their right to sue the SEC/Pac 12/ESPN or whoever else they are blaming for their demotion in the college football world.

Games of the Week

Oklahoma @ Florida State - This match-up of top five teams will have a huge impact on the national championship race. The Sooners humbled FSU last year in Norman, winning 47-17. The ACC hasn’t been a player in the national title picture in quite some time. A win here by Florida State should put them in control of their own destiny. Landry Jones of OU is looked at by many as a serious Heisman contender, but watch out for EJ Manuel of FSU. He has thrown for 581 yards and 6 TDs. However, FSU will have to improve their ground attack to compete with the mighty Sooners. I expect a tight game, with the experience of OU being the difference. I’ll say Sooners win 26-24.

Tennessee @ Florida - Is this the year? The Gators have won six straight over the Vols, and the last four games have been decided by a minimum of 10 points. Tennessee finally has an identity on offense, thanks to QB Tyler Bray. He has completed 68.5% of his passes for 698 yards with 7 TDs and no picks. The Vols can pound the rock too behind Tauren Poole (45 carries, 199 yards). That may come in handy. The team that has rushed for more yardage in this game has won eight in a row and 20 of the last 21. This will be a very competitive game. Tennessee’s offense is up to the task. Is the defense? I don’t think they are quite there yet. I see a Gator win 31-27.

Ohio State @ Miami, FL - I know the jokes. There will be no rules followed here. Call it the Ineligi-Bowl. It is still a very big game between two major programs. The U is 0-1 but played admirably at Maryland with eight players serving suspensions. The Buckeyes rolled thru Akron, then had to fight tooth and nail to edge Toledo. Miami QB Jacory Harris is back and ready. I was more impressed with the Canes one loss than I have been with two Buckeye wins. Last year, turnovers made the difference (OSU was +4). I see a sloppy game, that OSU wins late 20-17.

WEEK ONE LESSONS

September 8, 2011

Sure, majority of the games on opening weekend are tune-ups for conference play or a big non-league game on the horizon. You’ll have a couple of games of note, thanks to the Chick-Fil-A and Cowboy Classics, but by and large, there are more cupcakes lined up in week one than at a bakery. However, there are still lessons to be learned from the opening week of games. Here is what I took away from Labor Day weekend.

Boise State is legit. I DVR’d the game with Georgia while watching LSU-Oregon. Boise State has team speed. As much as the elite of the SEC? No, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t go unbeaten in a BCS conference. They were bigger and quicker up front on the defensive line than I expected. Plus, QB Kellen Moore is about as accurate as you can get. He rushed a few throws, including the INT where he read man-to-man when Georgia was playing zone. Is Boise State deep enough to go undefeated in the SEC when they would most certainly lose a few starters here and there to injury from the increased physicality? No. However, you can say that about many teams out there. I am not saying they should automatically play for the title if they go 12-0, but they can line up and play with anyone. If the MWC had stayed together, they would have had a pretty legit schedule.

People will mistakenly write off Notre Dame. New year, same Irish. Lots of pre-season hype, home loss to a Big East team to start 0-1. Don’t be fooled. Notre Dame is good. Check the stat sheet. They had 27 first downs, allowed one offensive TD, held South Florida to 2-14 on third downs and outgained USF 508-254. They also had five turnovers (three in the red zone) and missed a short FG, and yet they only lost 23-20. Now that Tommy Rees is the QB, if they stop beating themselves, they are capable of beating everyone else on their schedule. Of course, as they showed Saturday, they are capable of losing any given week too.

While we are on the subject of Notre Dame, Michael Floyd is a beast. In addition to his 12 catches for 154 yards, have you seen him lately? His arms are massive. He is officially listed at 6-foot-3, 224 pounds. One look at him Saturday and I could only surmise that he spent his offseason suspension in the weight room. Or possibly on a used car lot bench pressing Honda Civics. It will be difficult for anyone to take him out of a game.

Les Miles + big time non-league game = LSU victory. The Tigers did it again. Just when you are ready to write off the Bayou Bengals, they play their best ball. Since Les Miles took over in Baton Rouge, LSU has won all 23 regular season non-conference games. In fact, the only non-SEC loss for LSU under Miles was a 19-17 defeat to Penn State in the 2010 Capital One Bowl. They are a great representative for SEC dominance. Them and the league’s control of the crystal football the last five Januarys.

2010 was worth at least one more win for Auburn. Trailing Utah State by ten with three minutes remaining, the defending champs played like... well... champs. They quickly drove the field for a score, recovered the onside kick and score again. When you get used to winning, you won’t accept losing, even when it seems inevitable. The Tigers did not panic. They played until the gun. I still think they will be lucky to be be bowl eligible this year, but for one day, they showed the fight of champions.

Games of the Week

Alabama @ Penn State -This is the only match-up of ranked teams this week in college football. The Tide easily handled the Lions last year in Tuscaloosa. This year, it will be Bama with an inexperienced QB making his first road start in hostile territory. In fourteen previous meetings, PSU has scored 20 or more points only three times, and two of the teams that did won national championships. What does that mean? Good PSU teams struggle to score against the Tide. PSU is better defensively from a year ago, and the home crowd will help. I think the Lions stay within striking distance most of the day, but the Tide will be in control. Bama wins 24-13.

Notre Dame @ Michigan - This is the hottest ticket in Big House history. Andy why not? It is the first night game ever at Michigan Stadium. As I demonstrated earlier, the Irish dominated South Florida everywhere but the scoreboard. Conversely, take a look at the stat sheet from the Michigan opener versus Western Michigan. Same number of first downs. Nine more yards. Time of possession favored WMU. Difference was turnovers (two returned for TDs) and penalties (8-1). ND can’t start 0-2. I say they won’t. 31-24 Irish.

Utah @ USC - It is the first conference game for the Utes as a member of the Pac 12. Utah won their opener, but not too convincingly over Montana State 27-10. The Trojans had their hands full themselves with perennial Big Ten bottom feeder Minnesota, winning 19-17. The game is in LA, and USC will have the best player on the field in QB Matt Barkley. The Utes will eventually win this division, but only because USC is not eligible this season. USC wins this one 28-16.

WEEK ONE LESSONS

September 8, 2011

Sure, majority of the games on opening weekend are tune-ups for conference play or a big non-league game on the horizon. You’ll have a couple of games of note, thanks to the Chick-Fil-A and Cowboy Classics, but by and large, there are more cupcakes lined up in week one than at a bakery. However, there are still lessons to be learned from the opening week of games. Here is what I took away from Labor Day weekend.

Boise State is legit. I DVR’d the game with Georgia while watching LSU-Oregon. Boise State has team speed. As much as the elite of the SEC? No, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t go unbeaten in a BCS conference. They were bigger and quicker up front on the defensive line than I expected. Plus, QB Kellen Moore is about as accurate as you can get. He rushed a few throws, including the INT where he read man-to-man when Georgia was playing zone. Is Boise State deep enough to go undefeated in the SEC when they would most certainly lose a few starters here and there to injury from the increased physicality? No. However, you can say that about many teams out there. I am not saying they should automatically play for the title if they go 12-0, but they can line up and play with anyone. If the MWC had stayed together, they would have had a pretty legit schedule.

People will mistakenly write off Notre Dame. New year, same Irish. Lots of pre-season hype, home loss to a Big East team to start 0-1. Don’t be fooled. Notre Dame is good. Check the stat sheet. They had 27 first downs, allowed one offensive TD, held South Florida to 2-14 on third downs and outgained USF 508-254. They also had five turnovers (three in the red zone) and missed a short FG, and yet they only lost 23-20. Now that Tommy Rees is the QB, if they stop beating themselves, they are capable of beating everyone else on their schedule. Of course, as they showed Saturday, they are capable of losing any given week too.

While we are on the subject of Notre Dame, Michael Floyd is a beast. In addition to his 12 catches for 154 yards, have you seen him lately? His arms are massive. He is officially listed at 6-foot-3, 224 pounds. One look at him Saturday and I could only surmise that he spent his offseason suspension in the weight room. Or possibly on a used car lot bench pressing Honda Civics. It will be difficult for anyone to take him out of a game.

Les Miles + big time non-league game = LSU victory. The Tigers did it again. Just when you are ready to write off the Bayou Bengals, they play their best ball. Since Les Miles took over in Baton Rouge, LSU has won all 23 regular season non-conference games. In fact, the only non-SEC loss for LSU under Miles was a 19-17 defeat to Penn State in the 2010 Capital One Bowl. They are a great representative for SEC dominance. Them and the league’s control of the crystal football the last five Januarys.

2010 was worth at least one more win for Auburn. Trailing Utah State by ten with three minutes remaining, the defending champs played like... well... champs. They quickly drove the field for a score, recovered the onside kick and score again. When you get used to winning, you won’t accept losing, even when it seems inevitable. The Tigers did not panic. They played until the gun. I still think they will be lucky to be be bowl eligible this year, but for one day, they showed the fight of champions.

Games of the Week

Alabama @ Penn State -This is the only match-up of ranked teams this week in college football. The Tide easily handled the Lions last year in Tuscaloosa. This year, it will be Bama with an inexperienced QB making his first road start in hostile territory. In fourteen previous meetings, PSU has scored 20 or more points only three times, and two of the teams that did won national championships. What does that mean? Good PSU teams struggle to score against the Tide. PSU is better defensively from a year ago, and the home crowd will help. I think the Lions stay within striking distance most of the day, but the Tide will be in control. Bama wins 24-13.

Notre Dame @ Michigan - This is the hottest ticket in Big House history. Andy why not? It is the first night game ever at Michigan Stadium. As I demonstrated earlier, the Irish dominated South Florida everywhere but the scoreboard. Conversely, take a look at the stat sheet from the Michigan opener versus Western Michigan. Same number of first downs. Nine more yards. Time of possession favored WMU. Difference was turnovers (two returned for TDs) and penalties (8-1). ND can’t start 0-2. I say they won’t. 31-24 Irish.

Utah @ USC - It is the first conference game for the Utes as a member of the Pac 12. Utah won their opener, but not too convincingly over Montana State 27-10. The Trojans had their hands full themselves with perennial Big Ten bottom feeder Minnesota, winning 19-17. The game is in LA, and USC will have the best player on the field in QB Matt Barkley. The Utes will eventually win this division, but only because USC is not eligible this season. USC wins this one 28-16.

NOW EXPANDING... THE BIG 12

August 31, 2011

Okay, Texas A&M is out the door and (likely) headed to the SEC. The moral to the story is that sooner or later, little brother grows tired of big brother’s shadow and in this case... his television network. To their credit, the Aggies would be moving up in the world. They just went from being the third best college football program in their league to being about seventh, but they are in the best conference in the country. Texas is not. No one can dispute that.

Now that the ever shrinking Big 12 is down to nine schools, word is they will expand. However, this will not be like the Mountain West taking the best of the WAC to replace Utah, BYU and TCU, and it certainly won’t be the WAC holding what amounts to “Open Mic” nights, taking anyone willing to put a team on the field.

The national perception is that the Big 12 is dying. It is being held together by Texas. The day they decide to go independent is the day the league dies. If enough schools get pre-emptive like A&M, it may force the Horns to venture out on their own. The Big 12 can’t just find a body for team ten. It has to make a splash.

Give them an A for effort. Some of the names that have been tossed around in the past week are definitely eye popping. Some are even realistic. Some are not. The Voice of Reason is here to tell you what may happen, what will happen and what is just plain funny.

Notre Dame - They are the big fish. No question. Landing ND would be a major statement from the Big 12. The only thing is, why would ND join this league when they could have joined the Big Ten (which makes sense geographically and academically) or the Big East (where they compete in other sports)? Why would ND save a conference when they have no connection to it? And what happens if Texas goes independent anyway? Chances they join - Same chance Charlie Sheen becomes a network executive at CBS.

Pitt - Yes, the Panthers came up in discussion among Big 12 presidents of possible replacements for A&M. I have no clue why Pitt would make this move. They would be about 700 miles away from their closest league opponents. They are in the best basketball conference in the country. Why leave that to play Iowa State, Teaxs Tech, Baylor and Kansas State? Chances they join - Same chance Louisville joins the Mountain West.

Arkansas - This one has more merit to it than appears on the surface. The Hogs would go from being a mid-level SEC program (behind a minimum of six schools) to being the third best program in the Big 12. They’d renew a rivalry with Texas. The SEC would likely love the idea of trading Arkansas for A&M. They get two top ten markets in Dallas and Houston in exchange for Arkansas? They can add A&M without taking on a 14th team? Everyone makes more money without splitting the pie any more than it already is? Both conferences win. The only loser would be Arkansas. They would have left the best conference in the country for a struggling league. Chances they join - Same chance South Carolina joins the ACC

BYU - They are proud to be independent, but unlike Notre Dame, the BCS is not their friend. Coach Mendenhall acknowledged this week they would probably have to go undefeated for two years to get a shot at the BCS Title. BYU is a respected program that has won a national championship more recently than A&M (and Pitt and Arkansas for that matter). For them, being elevated to BCS level is a huge honor. If they said, “Thanks, but no thanks,” the Big 12 may as well shut down that day. They would never recover from that embarrassment. Chances they join - Same chance Patriots make the playoffs. I could easily see this happening, but nothing is guaranteed.

TCU - This is a story about a girl that has a crush on a particular high school boy. Since that boy is in a relationship, she says yes when another boy asks her to the prom. A week later, her secret crush is suddenly single and drops the old, “Too bad you have a date. I would have taken you to the prom” line. She is kicking herself for saying yes to the first offer to come along. Could TCU back out of their commitment to the Big East? Sure. Could they afford a likely penalty or lawsuit that could come from the Big East for backing out? Doubtful. Chances they join - Would have been a slam dunk. Now? The same as Tiger Woods hooking up with a local waitress. At one point, it was a no brainer. Now, even though both sides may want it, recent circumstances are making things complicated.

SMU - The Mustangs say they are ready to jump back into a BCS conference. For those of you that don’t remember life before cellphones, SMU was once in the Southwestern Conference with Texas, A&M and Arkansas among others. Their rampant cheating led to the NCAA hitting the program with the death penalty. Since the return to football, they have managed just two bowl appearances. Their stadium seats 32,000 people, but they only topped 21,000 in attendance three times in 2010. In fact, a home game with the Pac 10’s Washington State drew only 18,184 fans. Chances they join - Better chance for the NFL to pass on putting a team in LA, and put one in my back yard.

Games of the Week

Boise State vs. Georgia - These two teams played in 2005 to open the season. Georgia won that meeting 48-13. Since then, Boise State has won two BCS games and lost eight other games. Georgia lost seven just a year ago. The Broncos are led by senior QB Kellen Moore and have 13 other starters returning. Georgia returns only five starters on offense, but that does include sophomore QB Aaron Murray. The game is being played in the Georgia Dome, not exactly a neutral site. A win in SEC country would go a long way to legitimizing Boise State in those parts. However, I think the athleticism of the Dawgs will be too much. I’ll take Georgia to give Boise their only regular season loss this year. Georgia wins 24-14.

LSU vs. Oregon - This game lost some luster with the arrest and suspension of LSU QB Jordan Jefferson and LB Josh Johns. Jarrett Lee will get the start for the Tigers at quarterback. LSU is still a very good team with size and speed, but how will they react to the loss of their field general this close to the start of the season? The Ducks return some key parts of an explosive offense, starting with QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James. James is from Texarkana, so with this game in Arlington, you know he will be amped to perform in his home state. With Jefferson, I would have taken LSU. Now? The Ducks win a close one 23-21.

South Florida @ Notre Dame - The Fighting Irish, Notre Dame Stadium and Coach Holtz patrolling the sidelines. Sounds like a recipe for a run at the national title. Problem is Coach Holtz is on the other sideline. Lou’s son Skip leads the Bulls into South Bend for a great early season test. USF has won at Miami and Florida State in the last two years, so there shouldn’t be much of an intimidation factor. Junior QB BJ Daniels has to cut down on his INT total (13 last year compared to only 11 TD passes) if USF wants to win the Big East. Some people are expecting a break out year from the Irish with a healthy Dayne Crist at QB. I think the Irish hold on late for a 1-0 start. Next week may be a different story, but for now, the Irish win their fifth straight. I’ll say ND wins 28-21.

PREDICTIONS FOR 2011

August 23, 2011

Another season is here. Time for more predictions I’ll regret by Columbus Day.

SEC East - The reinstatement of Stephen Garcia at South Carolina puts the ‘Ol Ball Coach back in the driver’s seat in the east. They have experience and possibly the best RB in the country in Marcus Lattimore. Will Muschamp will have Florida more focused this year, but with only 10 starters back, they are likely a year away from contending. Georgia has something to prove and will likely be Carolina’s biggest obstacle.

SEC West - The last three seasons, the winner of this division has entered the league title game with a perfect record. In a league this deep, I find it hard to believe that will happen a fourth straight year. Bama has the edge here since their match-up with LSU is in Tuscaloosa. LSU’s road schedule is just too rough to stay the hunt now that QB Jordan Jefferson is suspended.

SEC Sleeper - I was very tempted to take Georgia as the East champ. They avoid LSU, Alabama and Arkansas from the west and only travel to Tennessee, Vandy and Ole Miss. They will need to improve defensively from a year ago when they allowed over 28 points six times. A win at home over the Gamecocks on September 10 would be key to winning the divison.

Big 10 Leaders - I’ll skip the obligatory joke about the divisional names in an effort to save time. Just know they are hideous. The Buckeyes still have enough talent to be a threat, but I can’t see them taking the division. PSU will be a better team. Although they may end up with the same record. Expect an early season loss to Alabama and one more slip up before November. My best guess is the trip to Evanston. The Lions always struggle there. That leaves Wisconsin. The Badgers won’t play a true road game until October 22nd. If they win in Columbus, they will head to Indy. If they enter November perfect, they will head to the Superdome.

Big 10 Legends - I find it fascinating how every pundit is giving the division to Nebraska. They are playing in a new conference and were hammered by the league with a nasty schedule. Watch out for MSU. They have the best pure QB in the league in Kirk Cousins. The road schedule for the Spartans includes some big names, but a win in Lincoln on October 29, will win them the division.

Big 10 Sleeper - Expect Michigan to get off to another fast start thanks to five straight home games to start the year. Four road games in six weeks will determine their season. If Denard Robinson stays healthy, they should enter November with a record of 6-2 and a shot at playing in Indy.

Big 12 - No offense to the Texas State Fair, but this year the league will be won or lost on November 5. Oklahoma is loaded offensively, but will feel the absence of LB Travis Lewis (out up to 8 weeks with a broken foot). The Aggies, who have one foot out the door towards the SEC, bring back 18 starters from a 9-win team. As for the Longhorns, expect improvement, but they are a year away from being a BCS worthy team. I’ll say OU wins the league, but loses once. They will luck out when other contenders lose later, allowing them to climb back into the top two.

Big 12 Sleeper - I have a hard time calling Texas a sleeper, but my choices in this crippled league are limited. Oklahoma State is a sleeper every year for a reason. They aren’t good enough to win the league, but they are just good enough to hang in there and maybe pull one upset. I’ll take Teaxs Tech. The Red Raiders always seem to have a gunslinger waiting in the wings. They’ll need one with the graduation of Taylor Potts. If they beat A&M in Lubbock on October 8, they should stay in the race for a while.

Pac 12 North - I’m convinced the goal for last season at Oregon was to score enough points to match every uniform combination they have. The Ducks are my pick in the North. With LSU now missing key people for week one, they may run the table again. Andrew Luck will keep Stanford in the race, but they lost a lot of experience elsewhere including their head coach. I’m done predicting Cal to do anything after they embarrassed me the last two years.

Pac 12 South - USC is not eligible to win the league, and Utah has stepped up in class going from the MWC to a BCS league. The Utes have talent and coaching, but I think the long grind of new teams could keep them out of the first league title game. They do have a few things working in their favor. They only play four league road games. UCLA has 17 starters back, but they play five Pac 12 road games. Utah also misses Oregon and Stanford. Arizona State’s schedule is too treacherous for my liking. I see Oregon taking out Utah to win the league.

Pac 12 Sleeper - Rick Neuheisel is overdue here. He has a career record of 81-52 but is only 15-22 in LA. The Bruins have 17 starters back, including QB Kevin Prince. The biggest problem I see for them is getting five league road games. On the upside, they do miss Oregon. If they survive the first half of league play with trips to Oregon State, Stanford and Arizona, the game at Utah on November 12 should be for the South title.

ACC Atlantic - FSU must replace Christian Ponder. That is the whole story in this division. They return 8 starters on both sides of the ball, but the play of junior E.J. Manuel will be the difference between a good season and a great one. Well, that and the games with Oklahoma and Florida. The Noles are on the verge of being an elite program again. A win at Clemson on 9/24 will get them into the league title game.

ACC Coastal - One third of the programs in this division are a mess (see UNC and the U) and another is Duke. That doesn’t leave much competition. Virginia Tech has won at least ten games for seven consecutive seasons. That may become eight. Even if it doesn’t, expect them to face FSU for a trip to the BCS.

ACC Sleeper - In case you haven’t picked up on the trend yet, the best sleepers are teams with some talent and favorable schedules. In this case, it is Georgia Tech. Paul Johnson’s triple option peaked two years ago with a league crown and BCS bid. The Ramblin’ Wreck’s road games include Virginia and Duke. Plus, by the time they visit Miami on 10/22, who knows how many suspensions will be handed out in Coral Gables?

Big East - Is this the year? The Pitt Panthers have been pre-season contenders for the last three seasons under Dave Wannstedt. Although they went 5-2 in league play in each of those seasons, they did not earn a BCS berth. Now, under Todd Graham, the Panthers have talent, especially on defense. The Backyard Brawl with WVU may be a winner take all contest. With that game taking place in Morgantown, I’ll take the Mountaineers behind QB Geno Smith to return to the BCS for the first time in four years.

Big East Sleeper - When you only have eight teams in your conference and none stand above the others, it is very difficult to find a sleeper. I’ll go with Greg Schiano’s Scarlet Knights. Remember him? He was Al Golden four years ago. Only he turned Miami down and slid back towards oblivion. Rutgers brings back nine offensive starters, including sophomore QB Chas Dodd. Their only Big East road games are at Syracuse, Louisville and UConn. That is about as much help from the scheduling department as a Big East team can get.

The Others - Whether they win or lose to Georgia in week one, Boise State will make the BCS. Kellen Moore (who I believe is in his ninth year as the starting QB there) makes the offense as dangerous as ever. TCU must visit the smurf turf and returns only eight starters total. I honestly, don’t see any other competition for an at-large bid. As for Notre Dame, Brian Kelly is the best coach they have had since Lou Holtz. They are not a great team, but they have talent and good coaching. I can easily see a nine win regular season. Since the first half of their schedule is the tougher half, I expect them to climb back into the top 14 and become BCS eligible by the end of the year.

BCS Title Game - Alabama (SEC Champ) over Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ)

Rose Bowl - Oregon (Pac 12 Champ) vs. Wisconsin (Big 10 Champ)

Fiesta Bowl - Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Boise State (At-large)

Orange Bowl - Florida State (ACC Champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Sugar Bowl - Georgia (At-large) vs. Texas A&M (At-large)

Capital One Bowl - Michigan State vs. South Carolina

Outback Bowl - Ohio State vs. Florida

Cotton Bowl - Texas vs. Arkansas

Gator Bowl - Nebraska vs. LSU

Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. Mississippi State

Alamo Bowl - Stanford vs. Texas Tech

Champs Sports Bowl - Clemson vs. Pitt

Sun Bowl - Utah vs. Georgia Tech

Insight Bowl - Penn State vs. Oklahoma State

Holiday Bowl - Missouri vs. UCLA

Belk Bowl - North Carolina vs. South Florida

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas - Michigan vs. Kansas State