THE PERFECT STORM?

Is this the year it happens? We all have waited, analyzed, hoped and prayed for a year when the BCS just imploded. In 2007, each time a new team reached the top of the mountain, an underdog was there to take them down. All that year proved (as I have explained in this column in the past) was that in a playoff system, none of those upsets would have mattered. All of those teams would have qualified for an 8-team playoff.

However, 2011 has the makings of the perfect storm. As of today, there are thirteen unbeaten teams in the top 25. If we end up with multiple undefeated teams from BCS conferences that get shut out of the BCS Title Game, that could be the impetus needed to take down the current system.

Before you get overly excited, realize that it is impossible for all thirteen teams to remain undefeated. Let’s look at what could happen if the maximum number of teams stay perfect.

First thing we have to do is pencil in Houston to the Liberty Bowl. The Cougars don’t have the clout or the non-league schedule to crash the BCS party. They are ranked 25th at the moment and only one team remaining on their schedule (SMU) has a winning record.

Boise State has garnered enough national respect to slip into the title game, but only if there is one unbeaten team from a BCS conference left in December.

Now, on to the BCS leagues. The Big Ten has three undefeateds as of today (Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan). In past years, we would have to check the schedule of all teams involved to see if they were scheduled to play this season. Under the new divisional set up, Wisconsin and Illinois play on November 19. If the winner finishes 12-0, they could face a perfect Michigan team in the first ever Big Ten Championship Game. That narrows the field even more.

Same rules apply to the SEC and ACC. Clemson and Georgia Tech could potentially play for the ACC crown, and the de facto SEC Title Game is this year’s “game of the year” between Alabama and LSU.

The Big 12 plays a full round robin schedule, so Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State will whittle themselves down to one.

Throw in Stanford and we can have a maximum of seven perfect teams, with five coming from a BCS conference. Here is the key aspect of blowing up the system. It is not enough to have all those teams finish 12-0. I don’t believe the Big Ten and Pac 12 will raise a ruckus if Stanford and Wisconsin are left out of the title game. Their fans will, but the conferences won’t. Mark my words, they will instead celebrate a Rose Bowl match-up of 12-0 teams.

As for Clemson, it would be hard to argue in favor of them when the ACC has won exactly one BCS game since 1999.

So how do we move forward with a playoff system? As in any walk of life, the most noise will come from those that are the most invested. Why are baseball general managers in Boston and New York held to a higher standard than ones in San Diego or Florida? Because the fans and local media demand more in those cities.

There are two ways this can work, one is to have a one-loss SEC champion in the title game over 12-0 teams from other major conferences. If Wisconsin and Stanford are passed over for other 12-0 teams, there won’t be much of an argument over perfect teams from the SEC and Big 12. Should perfect Big Ten or Pac 12 teams be passed over for one-loss teams, you will hear some outrage from folks playing in the Rose Bowl.

I think the best scenario for change would be an SEC champion with one-loss being left out. The general rules of the BCS would make you believe that is what is supposed to happen, and you would be right. The folks down south would go bonkers if the champ of the league that has won five consecutive crystal footballs was passed over for a team from the Big Ten. If one loss against that brutal league slate allows a team from a weaker conference to pass them over, all hell would break loose.

We don’t need someone to get left out. We don’t need a lot of people to be left out. We need the right team to be left out.. possibly more than once.

Games of the Week

Michigan @ Michigan State - Does this seem familiar to anyone else? Michigan gets off to a great start. Folks around the country start crediting the head coach for turning the program around. The QB is a Heisman candidate. Then.... the bottom falls out. As I predicted here in August, the Wolverines schedule was set up for another fast start. Now, it is time to see if this year is any different. MSU is looking for their first four-game winning streak in this rivalry since 1959-62. Michigan QB Denard Robinson’s ball security will be the difference in this game. He has thrown nine INTs so far (tied for 3rd in the nation). Last year, he threw three picks against the Spartans. MSU is just better, and they are at home. Sparty wins 27-21.

Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest - The Hokies were expected to be in the mix for the ACC title. The Demon Deacons? Not so much. Yet, entering this game, Wake is the one with an unblemished league record. This game will be a test for Wake QB Tanner Price. Wake Forest is 18th in the nation in passing offense, averaging 303.8 yards per game. He will face a Tech team that is second in the ACC with 8 INTs and is tied for tenth in the FBS with 3.0 sacks per game. This will be a tight game, but I just don’t think the Deacons are ready to contend for a championship. The pick here is Va Tech wins 23-20.

Arizona State @ Oregon - Oregon RB LaMichael James is questionable with an injury to his right elbow. James has rushed for over 200 yards in his last three games but was limited to 94 yards last year versus ASU. The Sun Devils are the only team in the Pac 12 South that has yet to lose a conference game this season. Last week, ASU defeated Utah 35-14 with QB Brock Osweiler throwing for 325 yards and three TDs. In the desert, I’d give ASU a serious shot. In Eugene? I like the Ducks with or without James 37-28.