PREDICTIONS FOR 2011

August 23, 2011

Another season is here. Time for more predictions I’ll regret by Columbus Day.

SEC East - The reinstatement of Stephen Garcia at South Carolina puts the ‘Ol Ball Coach back in the driver’s seat in the east. They have experience and possibly the best RB in the country in Marcus Lattimore. Will Muschamp will have Florida more focused this year, but with only 10 starters back, they are likely a year away from contending. Georgia has something to prove and will likely be Carolina’s biggest obstacle.

SEC West - The last three seasons, the winner of this division has entered the league title game with a perfect record. In a league this deep, I find it hard to believe that will happen a fourth straight year. Bama has the edge here since their match-up with LSU is in Tuscaloosa. LSU’s road schedule is just too rough to stay the hunt now that QB Jordan Jefferson is suspended.

SEC Sleeper - I was very tempted to take Georgia as the East champ. They avoid LSU, Alabama and Arkansas from the west and only travel to Tennessee, Vandy and Ole Miss. They will need to improve defensively from a year ago when they allowed over 28 points six times. A win at home over the Gamecocks on September 10 would be key to winning the divison.

Big 10 Leaders - I’ll skip the obligatory joke about the divisional names in an effort to save time. Just know they are hideous. The Buckeyes still have enough talent to be a threat, but I can’t see them taking the division. PSU will be a better team. Although they may end up with the same record. Expect an early season loss to Alabama and one more slip up before November. My best guess is the trip to Evanston. The Lions always struggle there. That leaves Wisconsin. The Badgers won’t play a true road game until October 22nd. If they win in Columbus, they will head to Indy. If they enter November perfect, they will head to the Superdome.

Big 10 Legends - I find it fascinating how every pundit is giving the division to Nebraska. They are playing in a new conference and were hammered by the league with a nasty schedule. Watch out for MSU. They have the best pure QB in the league in Kirk Cousins. The road schedule for the Spartans includes some big names, but a win in Lincoln on October 29, will win them the division.

Big 10 Sleeper - Expect Michigan to get off to another fast start thanks to five straight home games to start the year. Four road games in six weeks will determine their season. If Denard Robinson stays healthy, they should enter November with a record of 6-2 and a shot at playing in Indy.

Big 12 - No offense to the Texas State Fair, but this year the league will be won or lost on November 5. Oklahoma is loaded offensively, but will feel the absence of LB Travis Lewis (out up to 8 weeks with a broken foot). The Aggies, who have one foot out the door towards the SEC, bring back 18 starters from a 9-win team. As for the Longhorns, expect improvement, but they are a year away from being a BCS worthy team. I’ll say OU wins the league, but loses once. They will luck out when other contenders lose later, allowing them to climb back into the top two.

Big 12 Sleeper - I have a hard time calling Texas a sleeper, but my choices in this crippled league are limited. Oklahoma State is a sleeper every year for a reason. They aren’t good enough to win the league, but they are just good enough to hang in there and maybe pull one upset. I’ll take Teaxs Tech. The Red Raiders always seem to have a gunslinger waiting in the wings. They’ll need one with the graduation of Taylor Potts. If they beat A&M in Lubbock on October 8, they should stay in the race for a while.

Pac 12 North - I’m convinced the goal for last season at Oregon was to score enough points to match every uniform combination they have. The Ducks are my pick in the North. With LSU now missing key people for week one, they may run the table again. Andrew Luck will keep Stanford in the race, but they lost a lot of experience elsewhere including their head coach. I’m done predicting Cal to do anything after they embarrassed me the last two years.

Pac 12 South - USC is not eligible to win the league, and Utah has stepped up in class going from the MWC to a BCS league. The Utes have talent and coaching, but I think the long grind of new teams could keep them out of the first league title game. They do have a few things working in their favor. They only play four league road games. UCLA has 17 starters back, but they play five Pac 12 road games. Utah also misses Oregon and Stanford. Arizona State’s schedule is too treacherous for my liking. I see Oregon taking out Utah to win the league.

Pac 12 Sleeper - Rick Neuheisel is overdue here. He has a career record of 81-52 but is only 15-22 in LA. The Bruins have 17 starters back, including QB Kevin Prince. The biggest problem I see for them is getting five league road games. On the upside, they do miss Oregon. If they survive the first half of league play with trips to Oregon State, Stanford and Arizona, the game at Utah on November 12 should be for the South title.

ACC Atlantic - FSU must replace Christian Ponder. That is the whole story in this division. They return 8 starters on both sides of the ball, but the play of junior E.J. Manuel will be the difference between a good season and a great one. Well, that and the games with Oklahoma and Florida. The Noles are on the verge of being an elite program again. A win at Clemson on 9/24 will get them into the league title game.

ACC Coastal - One third of the programs in this division are a mess (see UNC and the U) and another is Duke. That doesn’t leave much competition. Virginia Tech has won at least ten games for seven consecutive seasons. That may become eight. Even if it doesn’t, expect them to face FSU for a trip to the BCS.

ACC Sleeper - In case you haven’t picked up on the trend yet, the best sleepers are teams with some talent and favorable schedules. In this case, it is Georgia Tech. Paul Johnson’s triple option peaked two years ago with a league crown and BCS bid. The Ramblin’ Wreck’s road games include Virginia and Duke. Plus, by the time they visit Miami on 10/22, who knows how many suspensions will be handed out in Coral Gables?

Big East - Is this the year? The Pitt Panthers have been pre-season contenders for the last three seasons under Dave Wannstedt. Although they went 5-2 in league play in each of those seasons, they did not earn a BCS berth. Now, under Todd Graham, the Panthers have talent, especially on defense. The Backyard Brawl with WVU may be a winner take all contest. With that game taking place in Morgantown, I’ll take the Mountaineers behind QB Geno Smith to return to the BCS for the first time in four years.

Big East Sleeper - When you only have eight teams in your conference and none stand above the others, it is very difficult to find a sleeper. I’ll go with Greg Schiano’s Scarlet Knights. Remember him? He was Al Golden four years ago. Only he turned Miami down and slid back towards oblivion. Rutgers brings back nine offensive starters, including sophomore QB Chas Dodd. Their only Big East road games are at Syracuse, Louisville and UConn. That is about as much help from the scheduling department as a Big East team can get.

The Others - Whether they win or lose to Georgia in week one, Boise State will make the BCS. Kellen Moore (who I believe is in his ninth year as the starting QB there) makes the offense as dangerous as ever. TCU must visit the smurf turf and returns only eight starters total. I honestly, don’t see any other competition for an at-large bid. As for Notre Dame, Brian Kelly is the best coach they have had since Lou Holtz. They are not a great team, but they have talent and good coaching. I can easily see a nine win regular season. Since the first half of their schedule is the tougher half, I expect them to climb back into the top 14 and become BCS eligible by the end of the year.

BCS Title Game - Alabama (SEC Champ) over Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ)

Rose Bowl - Oregon (Pac 12 Champ) vs. Wisconsin (Big 10 Champ)

Fiesta Bowl - Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Boise State (At-large)

Orange Bowl - Florida State (ACC Champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Sugar Bowl - Georgia (At-large) vs. Texas A&M (At-large)

Capital One Bowl - Michigan State vs. South Carolina

Outback Bowl - Ohio State vs. Florida

Cotton Bowl - Texas vs. Arkansas

Gator Bowl - Nebraska vs. LSU

Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. Mississippi State

Alamo Bowl - Stanford vs. Texas Tech

Champs Sports Bowl - Clemson vs. Pitt

Sun Bowl - Utah vs. Georgia Tech

Insight Bowl - Penn State vs. Oklahoma State

Holiday Bowl - Missouri vs. UCLA

Belk Bowl - North Carolina vs. South Florida

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas - Michigan vs. Kansas State