NOW WHAT?

For the third time in less than two years, we were on the brink. The college football landscape was about shift to superconferences. Everyone had said it was only a matter of time, and time was up. Or so we thought.

Once again most of the rumors of deals were just that. The key this time is that there was still just enough movement to leave the door open to more. In some cases, it is almost a certainty.

Let’s take a look at the six BCS conferences, and see what is the next move.

BIG 10 - Jim Delaney was playing a round of golf this weekend as the rest of the BCS leagues were scrambling to hold onto teams or steal someone else’s. What does that mean? The Big Ten made its move last year when they landed Nebraska. They got a major brand with a huge, rabid fan base. Plus, it got them to 12 teams, so they could play a conference title game. They are as content as you can be. Outside of Notre Dame, there isn’t a single school that could become available that would be a guaranteed slam dunk for the league the way Nebraska was in 2010 or the way Penn State was in 1990.

PAC 12 - They flirted with the idea of becoming the Pac 16 last year. Then Texas, Oklahoma and company decided to stay put. This time, it was the Pac 12 that decided twelve teams was enough for them. Mostly because Texas didn’t want to give up or share their new network and without them, the Pac 12 didn’t want Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

BIG 12 - With the threat of moving to the Pac 12 gone, Oklahoma suddenly told the world they were just using that threat as leverage to fix the Big 12. Sure. (I believe that the way I believe Jim Tressel lied to keep his players safe as opposed to keeping them eligible.) Now, it appears the Big 12 will stay together. A major issue it faces going forward (along with trust, a commissioner that has been run off and the Longhorn Network) is replacing Texas A&M. One idea would be to replace one Texas school with another and reach out to TCU. The school that seems to be the first choice though is BYU. Why not? BYU is more of a national brand. It doesn’t sound like they will go above 10 right now, but one thing that is a must if they return to a two division format is they must split up Texas and Oklahoma.

SEC - So, Texas A&M is team #13. It also looks like team #14 will not be determined in time to join next fall. The only way you can play an 8-game league schedule with 13 teams is either scrap the two divisions or play an imbalanced schedule. In the latter case, some schools would not play everyone else in their division. What does that mean? Don’t expect the SEC to stay at 13 for more than one year. So who is in their sights? Reports are that West Virginia has already been shot down by the SEC. I believe their top two choices would be Virginia Tech or Missouri. The ACC may even be anticipating losing the Hokies or someone else by expanding first.

ACC - Pitt and Syracuse? Really? Wow! Who saw that coming? That was the equivalent of Duke and North Carolina bolting for the Big East. This was a “kill or be killed” decision. If we are headed down a path where the best conferences have 16 teams, some of the current BCS leagues would not survive. Now the ACC has enough teams to survive poaching from the SEC. If they need more teams, expect UConn and Rutgers to be up next.

BIG EAST - Once again the ACC has thrown the Big East into chaos. What the league does next is critical. If they don’t find solid replacements, it could lead to more defections or the loss of their automatic BCS bid. That is why I can’t understand the talk of adding Navy and Air Force as football-only members. East Carolina has applied for membership. They would be a solid addition. They have a good program with a strong following. The Pirates 2010 attendance was higher than five of the eight Big East teams. Central Florida is also a popular suggestion. Both would be better options long term than the service academies. Villanova has flirted with moving up to the FBS level. That is still a valid idea. It should not be a replacement move, just an addition once new teams are added.

Games of the Week

LSU @ West Virginia - Last year LSU led 17-0 and held on to win 20-14. WVU ran four plays or less on 10 of their 13 possessions. There is no question LSU is even stronger defensively this year. They are also battle tested with wins over Oregon and Mississippi State. WVU QB Geno Smith may be the top offensive player in the Big East. A rowdy Morgantown crowd will keep the Mountaineers in the game, but only for a while. LSU continues to dominate outside the SEC. I like the Tigers 24-6.

Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M - OSU has won the last three meetings with the last two being decided by a total of eight points. Cowboys QB Brandon Weeden has thrown for over 350 yards in three straight games. He has only been sacked three times thru three games. The Aggies will look to add to that total. They have 11 sacks in their two games. The game is in College Station, and A&M definitely plays more defense. That is enough for me. Aggies go to 3-0 with a 35-30 win.

Florida State @ Clemson - The Noles put up a fight last week... at least defensively, but it wasn’t enough. Oklahoma escaped with a big road win. Now, FSU enters Death Valley, and they may be without QB E.J. Manuel due to a bum shoulder. The Tigers are 7-17 versus FSU, but they have won the last three at home. Clemson gained 624 yards last week in a victory over defending BCS champ Auburn. The Noles are hurting physically and emotionally. If they pull this one out on the road, give Jimbo Fisher all the credit. I see Clemson taking it 26-20.