THE ODDS

October 20, 2010

The first BCS rankings of the year were released Sunday. Here are my thoughts on the likelihood of each of the top ten teams to make it to Glendale.

1. Oklahoma (6-0)

Pros – They have the poll position which means they control their own destiny.

Cons – Of their six remaining regular season games, four are on the road. They may have more talent than those six teams, but the Sooners have been more talented in four of the last six seasons. I doubt they’ll run the table.

Chances – Somewhat Likely – They always seem to be in the title game, even when they don’t deserve it.

2. Oregon (7-0)

Pros – They put up video game like numbers on offense. It will be hard for their remaining opponents to keep up. Plus, they have lots of experience in big games after winning the Rose Bowl bid last season.

Cons – They still play USC at the Coliseum and arch-rival Oregon State on the road. They’ve ruined the Beavers Rose Bowl dreams each of the past two years. The folks in Corvallis would love some payback, and anything can happen in a rivalry game.

Chances – Very Likely – I think USC is the only real threat left for the Ducks.

3. Boise State (6-0)

Pros – No one left on their schedule is anywhere near their talent level. They are a senior laden team that is getting unprecedented respect in the polls.

Cons – Their remaining schedule will only be an anchor. Nevada’s loss to Hawaii may have been just as crippling to their cause as Virginia Tech’s loss to James Madison.

Chances – Extremely Likely – Their odds went up the last two weeks with Alabama and Ohio State losing. Just keep doing what they do, watch everyone else fall and Glendale seems like a lock.

4. Auburn (7-0)

Pros – Being from the SEC, they only have to win the conference championship to get serious consideration for the BCS Championship. If they beat LSU, Alabama and win the SEC Championship Game, they will easily vault over everyone to #1, even if the top three stay perfect.

Cons – They play Alabama on the road for starters. The Tigers have lived dangerously to this point pulling out three victories in the final minute or in overtime. How many lives do they have left?

Chances - Somewhat Likely – I didn’t think they’d stay perfect this long. I have a hard time believing they can beat Alabama on the road.

5. TCU (7-0)

Pros – The Horned Frogs were one second away from playing for the title last year instead of big brother Bevo.

Cons – The road game at Utah won’t be easy. Also, Boise State’s inclusion hurts their chances tremendously. Voters may put one non-BCS league school into the championship, but short of all out chaos, there’s no way that two play each other in Glendale.

Chances – Highly Unlikely – For that last reason, they need Boise to lose. Maybe if they had beaten Boise last January, the Broncos would be chasing them.

6. LSU (7-0)

Pros – See Auburn… i.e. an unbeaten SEC team will always jump to the top two.

Cons – Speaking of an SEC team living dangerously. Does anyone really think Les Miles can win six more? They have been gift wrapped two wins so far. They may actually be the fourth best team in their own division.

Chances – Unlikely – LSU does get Alabama at home. I just don’t believe this team is that good.

7. Michigan State (7-0)

Pros – The Spartans have gotten a lot of good press with Coach Dantonio’s unfortunate health problems. People love a good story. They also don’t play Ohio State this year.

Cons – They don’t play Ohio State this year. That means they don’t have enough big games left to climb up to the top two unless everyone else falls apart.

Chances – Highly Unlikely – They may win the Big Ten, but there won’t be enough major wins on their schedule to be considered for anything beyond Pasadena.

8. Alabama (6-1)

Pros – The defending national champs lost early enough to climb back into the picture. In fact, if the Tide wins out, it would take both Oklahoma and Oregon to be prefect to keep them out.

Cons – They are not as good as they have been the last two years. It is not a foregone conclusion that they go 11-1.

Chances – Likely – A win in Baton Rouge on November 6^th will put them right back in the picture.

9. Utah (6-0)

Pros – When it comes to non-BCS conference teams, no school has earned more respect than the Utes. With two perfect seasons the last six years and a move to the new Pac 12 looming, they are considered a big boy. They will play TCU at home November 6^th.

Cons – For the same reasons I gave for TCU, a BCS bid is possible, but not a title shot.

Chances – Unlikely – See TCU.

10. Ohio State (6-1)

Pros – The Buckeyes have the name and pedigree to sway voters.

Cons – They also carry with them the stench of Championship Games past. No one is going to stick their neck out for them for a while. Plus, their remaining schedule makes a run to the top two very tough.

Chances – Unlikely – They can impress people with a win at Iowa, but not playing Michigan State actually hurts their chances as much as the Spartans.

Games of the Week:

LSU @ Auburn – Last week, Auburn gave up 43 points to Arkansas and still won by three touchdowns. Cam Newton is getting serious Heisman hype nationwide with Auburn averaging 40 points and 481 yards per game. LSU always has athletes, so expect their defense to challenge Newton. If it was on the Bayou, I’d expect the magic (or luck) of Les Miles to continue. Instead, Newton and Auburn stay perfect.

Oklahoma @ Missouri –OU rolled Iowa State after many closer than expected wins earlier this season. Missouri will present a stiff test defensively. The Tigers are 2^nd in the FBS allowing only 13.3 points per game while tallying 20 sacks. This is not a great Oklahoma team. They may win the Big 12, but they won’t be perfect. The only road game they’ve played so far was against Cincinnati at Paul Brown Stadium, and they almost blew that one. I like Mizzou in an upset.

Wisconsin @ Iowa – The Badgers jumped all over Ohio State last week and manhandled them up front. Iowa may be the best all around team in the Big Ten. It will very tough for Wisconsin to follow up last week’s victory with an equally impressive game on the road. Iowa still has an outside shot at reaching the BCS Championship since they have the Badgers, Spartans and Buckeyes left to play, and all of them come to Iowa City. This is just too tough a follow up game for Wisconsin. I like Iowa to roll Saturday.