EXPANSION SCORECARD

October 13, 2010

The Pac 12 is expected to unveil its new divisional format within the next week. That is expected to be the last expansion announcement in college football for a while. Now that the dust is finally settling, here’s a scorecard of the winners and losers.

LOSERS:

1. The Mountain West Conference – The remaining members of this league were on the verge of ending up atop the winners list. Even with the departure of Utah, the addition of Boise State had all but assured the league of an automatic BCS berth. Next, they added Fresno State and Nevada for more depth. Then the unthinkable happened. BYU, possibly positioning itself for the next expansion round (whether it is 5, 10 or 15 years down the line), decided to go independent in football. Now, even TCU is looking for greener pastures. They have gone as far as to contact the Big East. The MWC went from joining the big boys, to being a weaker reincarnation of the original WAC.
2. Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and Missouri – The worth of these four schools (or should I say the worthlessness of these four schools) was exposed this summer. As great a basketball school as Kansas is, they were begging for a home in the new world of college athletics when the Big 12 teetered on the brink of extinction. The Big Ten and Pac 12 were not interested. Only by giving Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M whatever they wanted could they save the Big 12 and themselves in the process. How funny is it watching Missouri come crawling back after they had their bags all packed for the Big Ten?
3. Stanford and California – The debate over the Pac 12 divisions revolves around these two schools. The four northern schools (Oregon, Oregon State, Washington and Washington State) want them in their division, the Pac 12 North. However, the California schools want to be kept together. The Bay Area schools don’t want to limit their competitions with USC and UCLA by being separated. Some also worry about being labeled a northern school. As I stated a few weeks ago, the northern schools need games regularly in California for exposure. I expect UCLA and USC to be grouped with the Arizona schools and the two newcomers, and for Stanford and Cal to be upset.
4. Wisconsin and Minnesota – The Badgers asked to be Nebraska’s chief rival when they enter the Big Ten next year. After all, Wisconsin does not have a traditional end of the year opponent. Over the last six years, they’ve closed the conference season against Iowa, Northwestern and Minnesota. What did the Big Ten do? They put the Badgers in a division opposite the Huskers, as well as their two biggest rivals, Minnesota and Iowa. They will play Minnesota every year in a cross over game, but this is the complete opposite of what Barry Alvarez had in mind. As for the Golden Gophers, they were put in a division with Nebraska, Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa. Throw in their crossover with the Badgers, and they may have the toughest annual slate in the league. Good luck rebuilding.

WINNERS:

1. Utah – This one is obvious. The Utes burst onto the national scene in 2004 when then coach Urban Meyer led them to an undefeated season and a Fiesta Bowl win over Pitt. Four years later, while Meyer was winning a national championship at Florida, Utah ran off another perfect season. This time they beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. And now here they are, invited to join a BCS conference and compete with the likes of USC, Oregon and Cal on a regular basis. My how things change in one decade.
2. Texas – Behold the power of Bevo! Texas was the school the Pac 10 really wanted. They were willing to take other schools like Texas Tech and Oklahoma State if it got them the Longhorns. By sounding interested, Texas forced the remaining Big 12 members to give Texas (as well as A&M and Oklahoma) even more financial benefits. In no way is this a long term solution for the Big 12. I think it just bought the four remaining northern schools a few years to plan their next move. As for Texas, they expect to launch their own TV network soon. My guess is they will then make a move similar to BYU and go independent while promising to play the other Texas schools every year.
3. USC – The Trojans don’t need more exposure. The Pac 10 does. They don’t need more national credibility either. However, many of their conference brethren do. What ever helps the league, helps USC. Let’s also take note of the competition they appear to be getting in the new divisional format… UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. Once the NCAA sanctions are behind them, expect the men of Troy to be regular fixtures in the Pac 12 Championship Game.
4. Iowa – The Big Ten emphasized competitive balance in its divisional format. They looked at each school’s record from 1993 (when Penn State entered the league) to now. By using that starting point, the Hawkeyes were not penalized for going 18 consecutive years from 1962-1980 without a winning season. Instead, the Hawks were grouped with the upper half of the league. They also upgraded their end of season game from Minnesota to Nebraska. I think it is a pretty safe assumption that Iowa will be noticed a bit more nationally around thanksgiving than ever before.

Games of the Week:

Arkansas @ Auburn – They say cats have nine lives. So far this season, Auburn has used three. After escaping with wins over Clemson, South Carolina and Kentucky, the Tigers host Ryan Mallett and the Arkansas Razorbacks. With all the attention on Mallett, some people may just be getting to know Tiger QB Cam Newton. The juco transfer rushed for 198 yards and 4 TDs last week in Lexington. The stat keepers for each team will deserve a raise after this one. I think Auburn’s luck runs out against the Hogs.

Texas @ Nebraska – This one lost a little luster with Texas falling to UCLA and Oklahoma, but you would never know that in Lincoln. The Huskers blame Texas for their upcoming departure and for the imminent death of the Big 12. They are also tired of being reminded that Texas has won 8 of 9 against Big Red. Redshirt freshman QB Taylor Martinez has pumped life into a near dead Husker offense. The Sea of Red wants blood. I expect Nebraska to roll over the Longhorns.

Ohio State @ Wisconsin – The Buckeyes are the nation’s new number one team following Alabama’s loss last weekend. The Buckeyes strength of schedule to this point has been questioned. Their marquee win over Miami looks less impressive with their recent destruction at the hands of Florida State. This will only be OSU’s second road game of the season. The Badgers are looking to stay in the race for the roses after a conference loss to Michigan State two weeks ago. Terrelle Pryor is coming off his best passing performance as a Buckeye, going 24-30 for 334 yards and 3TDs. Winning at Camp Randall is never easy, but I think Ohio State squeaks one out on a late FG.