HOW AM I DOING?

October 28, 2010

We are about to enter the home stretch of the college football season. Before things sort out, let’s revisit my pre-season picks and see how my selections look now.

In the SEC, I called for a South Carolina-Alabama championship game. That is still looking pretty solid. The South Carolina side was the gamble back in August, but right now the depth of the SEC West has Alabama in doubt. The Gators have already lost three times, but they can still displace the Gamecocks and head to Atlanta by winning their three remaining league games.

The Big 12 South should have gone to the winner of the Red River Rivalry. It still may, but Baylor and Oklahoma State are hanging around midway through the conference schedule. The North was Nebraska’s to lose. Missouri has been stronger than expected, but one last showdown between the Sooners and Huskers still appears to be on the horizon.

Okay, so I was dead wrong when I said, “I don’t believe the Badgers are good enough to beat the Bucks… even in Camp Randall.” However, I stand by my pick of Ohio State and Iowa being the class of the league. Michigan State may actually take the Rose Bowl bid, but that’s only because they don’t face OSU.

I’m kicking myself for my Pac Ten selection. Oregon’s new QB and tough road schedule (five league road games with only four at home) scared me off. After them, you could make a case for any one of six other teams. I decided to take the team no one was talking about, Cal. The Bears are a one point loss to Arizona away from being in the thick of it, but I will officially call that pick a miss.

The ACC prediction of a Florida State-Miami championship game still looks strong. Remember, the reason I did not take Va Tech. “Virginia Tech will be solid as always, but they play at UNC and at Miami.” Those games are still to come. Get ready for the ACC Championship the league has dreamed of since they expanded to 12 teams.

As for the rest, The Big East should still come down to the Backyard Brawl. Boise State will go undefeated, and TCU is still in the mix for a BCS bowl. Notre Dame has been a disappointment. This is about as easy a schedule as Brian Kelly will get in South Bend, and the Irish are looking at the possibility of a third straight 6-6 regular season unless they can defeat Utah or USC.

As for my bowl picks, here’s what they were and how I see them now.

In August…

BCS Championship Game – Alabama (SEC Champ) over Boise State (At-large)

Rose Bowl – Ohio State (Big 10 Champ) vs. California (Pac 10 Champ/Rep)

Sugar Bowl – Florida (At-large) vs. Iowa (At-large)

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ) vs. Pitt (Big East Champ)

Orange Bowl – Florida State (ACC Champ) vs. Texas (At-large)

Capital One Bowl – Wisconsin vs. Auburn

Outback Bowl – Penn State vs. South Carolina

Cotton Bowl – Nebraska vs. Arkansas

Gator Bowl – Northwestern vs. LSU

Chick-Fil-A Bowl – Georgia vs. Miami

Champ Sports Bowl – Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech

Now…

BCS Championship Game – Alabama (SEC Champ) over Oregon (Pac 10 Champ)

Rose Bowl – Iowa (Big Ten Champ) vs. Boise State (At-large)

Sugar Bowl – Auburn (At-large) vs. TCU (At-large)

Orange Bowl – Florida State (ACC Champ) vs. Michigan State (At-large)

Fiesta Bowl – Nebraska (Big 12 Champ) vs. Pitt (Big East Champ)

Capital One Bowl – Ohio State vs. South Carolina

Outback Bowl – Wisconsin vs. LSU

Cotton Bowl – Texas vs. Florida

Gator Bowl – Michigan vs. Arkansas

Chick-Fil-A Bowl – Georgia vs. Miami

Champ Sports Bowl – West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech

Games of the Week:

Michigan State @ Iowa – With only Minnesota, Purdue and Penn State remaining on their schedule, the Spartans virtually assure themselves of a Rose Bowl berth with a win. The Hawkeyes are coming off a heartbreaking 31-30 home loss to Wisconsin. However, the Hawkeyes can still take the league if they win out. Last year, MSU had season lows in points and yards against Iowa. Their offense is improved, but Iowa bounces back with a big win.

Missouri @ Nebraska – The party is still raging in Columbia after the Tigers upset number one Oklahoma last Saturday. Meanwhile, the Huskers put that awful performance against Texas behind them with a 51-41 victory over Oklahoma State. For a program like Missouri that is not used to being on the national stage every week, it is very difficult to follow up the biggest win in the program’s history with a road win in this situation. I’ll take the Huskers to take control of the Big 12 North.

Oregon @ USC – The Trojans are on probation. They are not dead. They still have lots of talent. Two weeks ago, they destroyed Cal 48-14. They have had two weeks to prepare for the mighty Ducks of Oregon. Last year, Oregon hammered USC 47-20. This will be a tight game. I believe Oregon’s offense is just too good, even for Lane Kiffin’s Trojans. Oregon stays undefeated and takes another step towards Glendale.