October 18, 2012
The initial BCS poll for the 2012 season has been released. With half of the schedule left for most teams, a lot of things could change between now and December 2nd.
The lowest a team has been ranked in the initial poll and still made it to the championship game is 12th. Nick Saban’s 2003 LSU team pulled that off. So, let’s look at the top 12 of the first poll and see who is in good shape and who needs help.
On the outside looking in (or in this case UP) - #13 West Virginia, #14 Florida State, #15 Rutgers and #16 Louisville. WVU blew their shot when they were embarrassed last weekend 49-14 at Texas Tech. The Noles were looking like a contender until they fell flat with a 17-16 loss to NC State. Beating Florida on Thanksgiving weekend will help, but an ACC Champ with one loss won’t make the top two. As for Rutgers and Louisville. Both have defeated an SEC team this year, but those teams are Arkansas and Kentucky.
#12 Mississippi State - They aren’t a traditional power, but they are in the SEC. They have road games left with Alabama and LSU. They will probably need to win out just to make the SEC Championship game. If they can finish 13-0 and SEC Champion, they are in. As low as they are currently, I’d say they still control their own destiny.
#11 Georgia - The Bulldogs took a bad loss at South Carolina. They need the Gamecocks to lose a league game, and they need to beat Florida just to win the SEC East. Even then, I don’t think they make it all the way to the top two without a bunch of help.
#10 USC - The Trojans already have a loss at Stanford. They do have Oregon and Notre Dame remaining on their schedule plus a possible rematch with Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship Game. USC needs to run the table. If they can beat the Ducks twice (a big if), they can still play for it all.
#9 Oklahoma - My preseason pick to win it all. With a home loss to KSU, they have no choice but to beat everyone as badly as they beat Texas last week. They host Notre Dame and visit West Virginia. The WVU loss didn’t hep their cause, but they likely have to win and look great doing it from here on out.
#8 Oregon State - The Beavers have a lot of land mines left. They finish with Oregon and a possible match-up with USC in the Pac 12 Championship. A loss in either of those games will keep them out of the top two, and a loss to anyone else will make them plummet in the polls.
#7 South Carolina - I think it is all still in front of the Gamecocks. They visit Florida this week and finish at Clemson. If they can win out and defeat either Alabama or LSU in the SEC Championship, I don’t see a two point road loss at LSU keeping them out of the top two.
#6 LSU - Even after losing at Florida, they scored a big win over South Carolina. With Texas A&M, Mississippi State and most importantly Alabama still on the schedule, win out and they will be in the top two.
#5 Notre Dame - The Irish aren’t getting any help from Purdue, Michigan and Michigan State. The Big Ten is having an awful year. That may come back to haunt the Irish. If they win out, I think they will need Oregon to lose a game. The Ducks still play ASU, Oregon State and USC (likely twice). By the time ND gets the Trojans, the Ducks may have already handed them a 2nd loss.
#4 Kansas State - The Wildcats may drop out of the conversation after this week. They must be 12-0 to have any shot to be in the top two. ND will likely jump them if both schools are undefeated, and they won’t jump a perfect Oregon team.
#3 Oregon - Their schedule is back loaded. Four of their last six games are on the road including games at USC and Oregon State. If they win out, I believe they will be in the title game. One loss early enough could allow them to jump back in if they win the conference and both ND and KSU lose a game.
#2 Florida - No one is jumping the Gators if they win out. They still play South Carolina, Georgia and Florida State in addition to the SEC Championship Game. A loss in the league title game would knock them out, but if they win the league with one loss, they will likely be in the top two.
#1 Alabama - A loss anywhere but the title game, and they can probably recover. Dare I say it, but even if LSU or Mississippi State beats them, they could end up playing in the championship again if Oregon, KSU and Notre Dame lose a game. Picture this... Bama loses to LSU and then LSU falls to Florida in the SEC Championship. Couldn’t you see Bama vs. Florida for the championship. Sadly, I can.
Games of the Week:
Oregon @ Arizona State- The Ducks rank 2nd in the nation with 52.3 points per game and 4th in the country with 302.3 rushing yards per game. Oregon has scored at least 41 points in each of their last four meetings with the Sun Devils. Oregon was off last week but has not been tested yet this year. ASU has been impressive so far with their only loss coming at Missouri. I like the Ducks 48-28.
South Carolina @ Florida -The brutal stretch for the Gamecocks continues. After routing Georgia, they were nipped by LSU 23-21. SC RB Marcus Lattimore has a bruised hip and is questionable. The Gators survived their trap game at Vanderbilt. The winner of this game becomes the favorite in the SEC East. This game is in the Swamp which is why I like Florida in a defensive struggle. I’ll take the Gators 17-16.
Kansas State @ West Virginia - The “Geno Smith for Heisman” campaign took a major hit last week with a 49-14 loss at Texas Tech. WVU allows almost 400 yards a game thru the air. Lucky for them, KSU is ranked 112th in the nation in passing yards per game. The Wildcats are probably the Big 12’s last shot at playing for the national championship. With the game in Morgantown and the Mountaineers playing with wounded pride, I think WVU bounces back with a 35-21 victory.
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