BIG 14?

November 21, 2012

So much for that lull in expansion. How long did that officially last? A month? Two tops? The Big Ten, who just this summer said, “We are content with twelve teams,” has suddenly jumped up to 14 with the additions of Maryland and Rutgers.

Some people are laughing at this move. Some are scratching their head. Others are very excited about it. (That would be the folks from Rutgers.) As usual, the Voice of Reason is here to break it down for everyone.

Let’s start with the money question... literally. Will Rutgers really bring in the NYC market? What people don’t realize is that every time the Big Ten adds a school in a new state, there are more markets that will add the Big Ten Network onto their cable line up. Once that is done, it doesn’t matter if there are 100,000 people watching or 100. They make tons of money off subscriber fees.

Yeah, but not enough people in New York care about Rutgers to call their cable provider to try to get the BTN on their regular channel line up. That part is probably true. However, how many alumni of other Big Ten schools are in the market? 

The other aspect of the TV angle has changed in the past week when News Corporation which owns FOX purchased 49% equity stake in the YES Network. They also have an option to increase that to 80% in three years. Why is that significant? Because the BTN is a FOX station. If they want to play hard ball with NYC cable providers, they can use the Yankees as a leverage. Remember, once they get the station on the basic cable line-up. The dollars start to really roll in. I do not think for one second that it is merely a coincidence that those announcements came on the same day.

But, doesn’t this dilute the Big Ten product? At the moment, there is no debate. It absolutely does, but what if the Big Ten isn’t done? Once the SEC moved to 14 teams and the ACC followed, it has been generally accepted that we are moving toward 16-team super conferences. The Big Ten was not the first to 12 teams. They also weren’t the first to 14. What if they are anticipating other leagues like the SEC and Big 12 to take advantage of more Big East and ACC instability?

I could see these moves being to acquire the right TV markets. Then, after the SEC takes Virginia Tech and NC State and the Big 12 snatches Florida State, the Big Ten could check in with Notre Dame one last time before moving on Georgia Tech and who knows? Maybe North Carolina or grabbing Kansas from the Big 12. 

My point is that you would be foolish to look at the league now and make an assessment of these last two additions. Think long term. Not just about where the Terps and Knights may be in 10-20 years, but who follows them?

If Maryland can negotiate the $50 million dollar exit fee down to a more reasonable number, expect Florida State (who also voted against that high exit fee) to get on the phone to the Big 12, which may lead to Louisville joining them, which could cause Boise State and San Diego State to head back to the MWC, which leads to the SEC making their move and so forth and so on.

I said it before, and I will say it again, “Please stay seated and keep your hands inside the car until the ride comes to a complete stop.” The expansion carousal is still spinning folks. Hold on tight.

Games of the Week:

Notre Dame @ USC- Matt Barkley’s injury takes a little luster off this game, but not much. The Trojans offense is still very potent led by WRs Marqise Lee & Robert Woods. Redshirt freshman Matt Wittek will be under center. If the Trojan offensive line keeps him upright, they will score some points and make this one interesting. The Irish will need Everett Golson to play mistake free. Protect the ball, and ND should win. I think Irish fans can start packing for South Beach. I like ND to win 28-20.

Florida @ Florida State - As crazy as it sounds, the Gators may only need to win this game and have USC knock off ND to slide into the national title game. Florida QB Jeff Driskel is expected to play after spraining his ankle last Saturday in his team’s great escape against Louisiana-Lafayette. FSU QB E.J. Manuel will provide the Gator D with a challenge. The Gators haven’t left the state much this year and while this is still in their home state, it is in hostile territory. I like the Seminoles to eliminate any possibility of another all-SEC final. I’ll say FSU 21-14.

Stanford @ UCLA - This is where things get confusing. If Stanford wins this game, the Cardinal host these same Bruins in six days for the Pac 12 Championship. If UCLA wins, the Bruins head to Oregon to battle the Ducks on Friday the 30th. Unless the Ducks lose to Oregon State, then UCLA hosts Stanford. Redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan has already led Stanford to wins over Oregon State and Oregon. The Bruins have been living off their offense. Stanford’s D will be the difference. Fear the Tree. Stanford wins 24-17.

BCS BOWL PROJECTIONS - 

BCS TITLE GAME - Notre Dame vs. Alabama

ROSE BOWL - Nebraska vs. Stanford

FIESTA BOWL - Kansas State vs. Oregon

SUGAR BOWL - Florida vs. Oklahoma

ORANGE BOWL - Florida State vs. Louisville