NOW EXPANDING... THE BIG 12

August 31, 2011

Okay, Texas A&M is out the door and (likely) headed to the SEC. The moral to the story is that sooner or later, little brother grows tired of big brother’s shadow and in this case... his television network. To their credit, the Aggies would be moving up in the world. They just went from being the third best college football program in their league to being about seventh, but they are in the best conference in the country. Texas is not. No one can dispute that.

Now that the ever shrinking Big 12 is down to nine schools, word is they will expand. However, this will not be like the Mountain West taking the best of the WAC to replace Utah, BYU and TCU, and it certainly won’t be the WAC holding what amounts to “Open Mic” nights, taking anyone willing to put a team on the field.

The national perception is that the Big 12 is dying. It is being held together by Texas. The day they decide to go independent is the day the league dies. If enough schools get pre-emptive like A&M, it may force the Horns to venture out on their own. The Big 12 can’t just find a body for team ten. It has to make a splash.

Give them an A for effort. Some of the names that have been tossed around in the past week are definitely eye popping. Some are even realistic. Some are not. The Voice of Reason is here to tell you what may happen, what will happen and what is just plain funny.

Notre Dame - They are the big fish. No question. Landing ND would be a major statement from the Big 12. The only thing is, why would ND join this league when they could have joined the Big Ten (which makes sense geographically and academically) or the Big East (where they compete in other sports)? Why would ND save a conference when they have no connection to it? And what happens if Texas goes independent anyway? Chances they join - Same chance Charlie Sheen becomes a network executive at CBS.

Pitt - Yes, the Panthers came up in discussion among Big 12 presidents of possible replacements for A&M. I have no clue why Pitt would make this move. They would be about 700 miles away from their closest league opponents. They are in the best basketball conference in the country. Why leave that to play Iowa State, Teaxs Tech, Baylor and Kansas State? Chances they join - Same chance Louisville joins the Mountain West.

Arkansas - This one has more merit to it than appears on the surface. The Hogs would go from being a mid-level SEC program (behind a minimum of six schools) to being the third best program in the Big 12. They’d renew a rivalry with Texas. The SEC would likely love the idea of trading Arkansas for A&M. They get two top ten markets in Dallas and Houston in exchange for Arkansas? They can add A&M without taking on a 14th team? Everyone makes more money without splitting the pie any more than it already is? Both conferences win. The only loser would be Arkansas. They would have left the best conference in the country for a struggling league. Chances they join - Same chance South Carolina joins the ACC

BYU - They are proud to be independent, but unlike Notre Dame, the BCS is not their friend. Coach Mendenhall acknowledged this week they would probably have to go undefeated for two years to get a shot at the BCS Title. BYU is a respected program that has won a national championship more recently than A&M (and Pitt and Arkansas for that matter). For them, being elevated to BCS level is a huge honor. If they said, “Thanks, but no thanks,” the Big 12 may as well shut down that day. They would never recover from that embarrassment. Chances they join - Same chance Patriots make the playoffs. I could easily see this happening, but nothing is guaranteed.

TCU - This is a story about a girl that has a crush on a particular high school boy. Since that boy is in a relationship, she says yes when another boy asks her to the prom. A week later, her secret crush is suddenly single and drops the old, “Too bad you have a date. I would have taken you to the prom” line. She is kicking herself for saying yes to the first offer to come along. Could TCU back out of their commitment to the Big East? Sure. Could they afford a likely penalty or lawsuit that could come from the Big East for backing out? Doubtful. Chances they join - Would have been a slam dunk. Now? The same as Tiger Woods hooking up with a local waitress. At one point, it was a no brainer. Now, even though both sides may want it, recent circumstances are making things complicated.

SMU - The Mustangs say they are ready to jump back into a BCS conference. For those of you that don’t remember life before cellphones, SMU was once in the Southwestern Conference with Texas, A&M and Arkansas among others. Their rampant cheating led to the NCAA hitting the program with the death penalty. Since the return to football, they have managed just two bowl appearances. Their stadium seats 32,000 people, but they only topped 21,000 in attendance three times in 2010. In fact, a home game with the Pac 10’s Washington State drew only 18,184 fans. Chances they join - Better chance for the NFL to pass on putting a team in LA, and put one in my back yard.

Games of the Week

Boise State vs. Georgia - These two teams played in 2005 to open the season. Georgia won that meeting 48-13. Since then, Boise State has won two BCS games and lost eight other games. Georgia lost seven just a year ago. The Broncos are led by senior QB Kellen Moore and have 13 other starters returning. Georgia returns only five starters on offense, but that does include sophomore QB Aaron Murray. The game is being played in the Georgia Dome, not exactly a neutral site. A win in SEC country would go a long way to legitimizing Boise State in those parts. However, I think the athleticism of the Dawgs will be too much. I’ll take Georgia to give Boise their only regular season loss this year. Georgia wins 24-14.

LSU vs. Oregon - This game lost some luster with the arrest and suspension of LSU QB Jordan Jefferson and LB Josh Johns. Jarrett Lee will get the start for the Tigers at quarterback. LSU is still a very good team with size and speed, but how will they react to the loss of their field general this close to the start of the season? The Ducks return some key parts of an explosive offense, starting with QB Darron Thomas and RB LaMichael James. James is from Texarkana, so with this game in Arlington, you know he will be amped to perform in his home state. With Jefferson, I would have taken LSU. Now? The Ducks win a close one 23-21.

South Florida @ Notre Dame - The Fighting Irish, Notre Dame Stadium and Coach Holtz patrolling the sidelines. Sounds like a recipe for a run at the national title. Problem is Coach Holtz is on the other sideline. Lou’s son Skip leads the Bulls into South Bend for a great early season test. USF has won at Miami and Florida State in the last two years, so there shouldn’t be much of an intimidation factor. Junior QB BJ Daniels has to cut down on his INT total (13 last year compared to only 11 TD passes) if USF wants to win the Big East. Some people are expecting a break out year from the Irish with a healthy Dayne Crist at QB. I think the Irish hold on late for a 1-0 start. Next week may be a different story, but for now, the Irish win their fifth straight. I’ll say ND wins 28-21.

PREDICTIONS FOR 2011

August 23, 2011

Another season is here. Time for more predictions I’ll regret by Columbus Day.

SEC East - The reinstatement of Stephen Garcia at South Carolina puts the ‘Ol Ball Coach back in the driver’s seat in the east. They have experience and possibly the best RB in the country in Marcus Lattimore. Will Muschamp will have Florida more focused this year, but with only 10 starters back, they are likely a year away from contending. Georgia has something to prove and will likely be Carolina’s biggest obstacle.

SEC West - The last three seasons, the winner of this division has entered the league title game with a perfect record. In a league this deep, I find it hard to believe that will happen a fourth straight year. Bama has the edge here since their match-up with LSU is in Tuscaloosa. LSU’s road schedule is just too rough to stay the hunt now that QB Jordan Jefferson is suspended.

SEC Sleeper - I was very tempted to take Georgia as the East champ. They avoid LSU, Alabama and Arkansas from the west and only travel to Tennessee, Vandy and Ole Miss. They will need to improve defensively from a year ago when they allowed over 28 points six times. A win at home over the Gamecocks on September 10 would be key to winning the divison.

Big 10 Leaders - I’ll skip the obligatory joke about the divisional names in an effort to save time. Just know they are hideous. The Buckeyes still have enough talent to be a threat, but I can’t see them taking the division. PSU will be a better team. Although they may end up with the same record. Expect an early season loss to Alabama and one more slip up before November. My best guess is the trip to Evanston. The Lions always struggle there. That leaves Wisconsin. The Badgers won’t play a true road game until October 22nd. If they win in Columbus, they will head to Indy. If they enter November perfect, they will head to the Superdome.

Big 10 Legends - I find it fascinating how every pundit is giving the division to Nebraska. They are playing in a new conference and were hammered by the league with a nasty schedule. Watch out for MSU. They have the best pure QB in the league in Kirk Cousins. The road schedule for the Spartans includes some big names, but a win in Lincoln on October 29, will win them the division.

Big 10 Sleeper - Expect Michigan to get off to another fast start thanks to five straight home games to start the year. Four road games in six weeks will determine their season. If Denard Robinson stays healthy, they should enter November with a record of 6-2 and a shot at playing in Indy.

Big 12 - No offense to the Texas State Fair, but this year the league will be won or lost on November 5. Oklahoma is loaded offensively, but will feel the absence of LB Travis Lewis (out up to 8 weeks with a broken foot). The Aggies, who have one foot out the door towards the SEC, bring back 18 starters from a 9-win team. As for the Longhorns, expect improvement, but they are a year away from being a BCS worthy team. I’ll say OU wins the league, but loses once. They will luck out when other contenders lose later, allowing them to climb back into the top two.

Big 12 Sleeper - I have a hard time calling Texas a sleeper, but my choices in this crippled league are limited. Oklahoma State is a sleeper every year for a reason. They aren’t good enough to win the league, but they are just good enough to hang in there and maybe pull one upset. I’ll take Teaxs Tech. The Red Raiders always seem to have a gunslinger waiting in the wings. They’ll need one with the graduation of Taylor Potts. If they beat A&M in Lubbock on October 8, they should stay in the race for a while.

Pac 12 North - I’m convinced the goal for last season at Oregon was to score enough points to match every uniform combination they have. The Ducks are my pick in the North. With LSU now missing key people for week one, they may run the table again. Andrew Luck will keep Stanford in the race, but they lost a lot of experience elsewhere including their head coach. I’m done predicting Cal to do anything after they embarrassed me the last two years.

Pac 12 South - USC is not eligible to win the league, and Utah has stepped up in class going from the MWC to a BCS league. The Utes have talent and coaching, but I think the long grind of new teams could keep them out of the first league title game. They do have a few things working in their favor. They only play four league road games. UCLA has 17 starters back, but they play five Pac 12 road games. Utah also misses Oregon and Stanford. Arizona State’s schedule is too treacherous for my liking. I see Oregon taking out Utah to win the league.

Pac 12 Sleeper - Rick Neuheisel is overdue here. He has a career record of 81-52 but is only 15-22 in LA. The Bruins have 17 starters back, including QB Kevin Prince. The biggest problem I see for them is getting five league road games. On the upside, they do miss Oregon. If they survive the first half of league play with trips to Oregon State, Stanford and Arizona, the game at Utah on November 12 should be for the South title.

ACC Atlantic - FSU must replace Christian Ponder. That is the whole story in this division. They return 8 starters on both sides of the ball, but the play of junior E.J. Manuel will be the difference between a good season and a great one. Well, that and the games with Oklahoma and Florida. The Noles are on the verge of being an elite program again. A win at Clemson on 9/24 will get them into the league title game.

ACC Coastal - One third of the programs in this division are a mess (see UNC and the U) and another is Duke. That doesn’t leave much competition. Virginia Tech has won at least ten games for seven consecutive seasons. That may become eight. Even if it doesn’t, expect them to face FSU for a trip to the BCS.

ACC Sleeper - In case you haven’t picked up on the trend yet, the best sleepers are teams with some talent and favorable schedules. In this case, it is Georgia Tech. Paul Johnson’s triple option peaked two years ago with a league crown and BCS bid. The Ramblin’ Wreck’s road games include Virginia and Duke. Plus, by the time they visit Miami on 10/22, who knows how many suspensions will be handed out in Coral Gables?

Big East - Is this the year? The Pitt Panthers have been pre-season contenders for the last three seasons under Dave Wannstedt. Although they went 5-2 in league play in each of those seasons, they did not earn a BCS berth. Now, under Todd Graham, the Panthers have talent, especially on defense. The Backyard Brawl with WVU may be a winner take all contest. With that game taking place in Morgantown, I’ll take the Mountaineers behind QB Geno Smith to return to the BCS for the first time in four years.

Big East Sleeper - When you only have eight teams in your conference and none stand above the others, it is very difficult to find a sleeper. I’ll go with Greg Schiano’s Scarlet Knights. Remember him? He was Al Golden four years ago. Only he turned Miami down and slid back towards oblivion. Rutgers brings back nine offensive starters, including sophomore QB Chas Dodd. Their only Big East road games are at Syracuse, Louisville and UConn. That is about as much help from the scheduling department as a Big East team can get.

The Others - Whether they win or lose to Georgia in week one, Boise State will make the BCS. Kellen Moore (who I believe is in his ninth year as the starting QB there) makes the offense as dangerous as ever. TCU must visit the smurf turf and returns only eight starters total. I honestly, don’t see any other competition for an at-large bid. As for Notre Dame, Brian Kelly is the best coach they have had since Lou Holtz. They are not a great team, but they have talent and good coaching. I can easily see a nine win regular season. Since the first half of their schedule is the tougher half, I expect them to climb back into the top 14 and become BCS eligible by the end of the year.

BCS Title Game - Alabama (SEC Champ) over Oklahoma (Big 12 Champ)

Rose Bowl - Oregon (Pac 12 Champ) vs. Wisconsin (Big 10 Champ)

Fiesta Bowl - Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Boise State (At-large)

Orange Bowl - Florida State (ACC Champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Sugar Bowl - Georgia (At-large) vs. Texas A&M (At-large)

Capital One Bowl - Michigan State vs. South Carolina

Outback Bowl - Ohio State vs. Florida

Cotton Bowl - Texas vs. Arkansas

Gator Bowl - Nebraska vs. LSU

Chick-Fil-A Bowl - Virginia Tech vs. Mississippi State

Alamo Bowl - Stanford vs. Texas Tech

Champs Sports Bowl - Clemson vs. Pitt

Sun Bowl - Utah vs. Georgia Tech

Insight Bowl - Penn State vs. Oklahoma State

Holiday Bowl - Missouri vs. UCLA

Belk Bowl - North Carolina vs. South Florida

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas - Michigan vs. Kansas State

SEC EXPANSION (TAKE 2)

Ninety minutes... that was all it lasted. Ninety minutes after I posted my previous blog entry (Is That Music I Hear?), I saw the story on ESPN. Doug Gottleib reports Texas A&M will leave the Big 12 for the SEC. Florida State, Clemson and Missouri will likely follow.

Let me first say that I can’t imagine for even a second that Gottleib of all people is the one who knows the story. Not Stewart Mandel or Clay Travis or Pat Forde... self absorbed Doug Gottleib?? That would be the day.

However, just in case this story has merit, I’ll give you my plan for the newly expanded SEC, and how I see the other dominos falling.

The easy assumption is that Clemson and FSU slide into the SEC East and A&M and Missouri head to the SEC West. In that scenario, even with a nine game league schedule (seven divisional games and two cross-overs), you would go seven years between playing schools on the other side. It would be longer if you continue to guarantee cross-over games like Alabama-Tennessee or Auburn-Georgia.

I propose four divisions of four where the two division winners with the best records play for the league title. A nine-game league schedule is a must. The Pac 12 has one, and the Big Ten will do the same in 2017. I think the ACC will play a nine-game league schedule very soon... but more on them later.

In the SEC, you’d play everyone in your division and two teams in each of the other three divisions. That way, you could play everyone else every two years.

Even the pairings are easy. The Coastal division would consist of South Carolina, Clemson, Florida and Florida State. The North could be Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Georgia. The Gulf would be Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi and Mississippi State, and the West would be LSU, Arkansas, Texas A&M and Missouri.

With so many interdivisional games, the schedules would be as balanced as you could get them. Plus, schedules would have variety. You wouldn’t be playing the same seven teams all the time at the expense of former rivals.

So, there is my plan for the SEC, but what about everyone else? I think the ACC stays at ten and plays a full nine-game league schedule. The ACC Championship Game has been a colasyl flop. With FSU gone, the possibility of a Miami-FSU championship (which is a major reason the ACC created the game) is gone forever.

What about the Big Ten? They came to a quick consensus over Nebraska, but the Huskers were a no brainer. I think the Big Ten would like to stay at twelve teams for now, but I wouldn’t rule out an announcement from Jim Delaney saying they will reopen their investigation of expansion. With Missouri off the table, they will look east towards Rutgers, Syracuse, Pitt and possibly Maryland and Virginia.

That leaves Notre Dame. I believe like many others that only in a world of 16-team superconferences, would the Irish have no choice but to surrender independence and join a league for football. That is still the case, unless Texas goes independent. There is no chance that ND would join a league like the Big Ten if the Longhorns had just thumbed their nose at the Big 12 and Pac 16 and went solo. How would that look to the nation and their own fan base? Texas can do it on their own, but we can’t?

If the SEC is about to go to 16, the Big Ten will eventually do the same... without Notre Dame. The ACC may merge with some remaining football members of the Big East (only atfer the Big Ten and others go to 16). As for the Big 12... its days are numbered. When Texas packs up and leaves, it will be a free for all. Some will make Larry Scott’s Pac 16 dream of 2010 a reality. The rest will turn to the Mountain West Conference.

I knew we had only postponed the inevitable apocalypse of college sports last year. I didn’t realize the moratorium would be this short. Here’s hoping this is just another scare. The saving grace here is that the source is Gottleib. No way he has it right.

IS THAT MUSIC I HEAR?

I am pretty sure every American child has played a game of musical chairs at some point. In the 21st century, universities play this game too. Only they call it realignment or expansion.

Last year, when the music stopped, the ten remaining members of the Big 12 each had a chair. However, Texas sat on a large throne. Oklahoma and Texas A&M flanked the Horns on either side while the other seven schools bowed down and gave thanks they were allowed to breathe the same air as the Longhorns, Aggies and Sooners.

Everyone knew it was a temporary fix. Nebraska and Colorado bolted at least in part because Texas had too much power. Now, they had more, and that was before The Longhorn Television Network became a reality.

Apparently, Texas A&M has seen and heard enough. Less than 15 months after they joined nine other schools in reaffirming their commitment to Big 12 athletics, they are beating on the door of the SEC and begging to be let in.

Reports say the 12 SEC presidents plan to meet Saturday and vote on whether or not to offer A&M an invitation. The Texas A&M System board of regents had a meeting planned for Monday, August 22. They have moved it up a week and included in the agenda is “Authorization for the President to Take All Actions Relating to Texas A&M University's Athletic Conference Alignment, The Texas A&M University System." Expectations are that A&M could be a part of the SEC as quickly as next fall.

The part I keep coming back to is this. The SEC had a chance to nab Texas A&M, Oklahoma and others last year. They chose to stick with 12 teams. Is A&M being unhappy enough of a reason to expand the most successful conference in the land? Expanding the conference footprint into Texas (most notably Houston and Dallas), is a great move, but what is the second move? It is highly doubtful the league would stay at 13 teams. So, who is lucky #14?

Some reports have Florida State lining up to potentially join the SEC East. Other sources say the SEC will not add a team from a state that already has an SEC team. That would seemingly eliminate FSU, Miami, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville and Memphis from consideration.

Here is another possibility. Texas A&M watched last summer as the Big 12 bent over backward to keep Texas happy, thereby securing the temporary affiliations of everyone else in the league. Could the Aggies be floating the rumors that this is a slam dunk certainty in hopes that the conference gives them a better cut to stay in business? I doubt it.

The Big 12 can’t keep doing that. In fact, Commissioner Dan Bebee has told A&M that if they leave, the league will be fine... as long as Texas stays put.

So, that brings us back to the SEC. According to conference rules, it only takes a majority to vote in favor of adding A&M to clear the way for an invitation. That still may not be enough. The SEC prefers all members to be on board with major decisions. Word is if even two presidents vote against adding a 13th team, the league would stay at 12.

I think this is much ado about nothing. If the SEC wanted to get bigger, they could have done so last year. They may have a majority vote yes, but I believe there will be just enough resistance to keep Texas A&M in the Big 12 a bit longer.

If I am wrong, and the SEC does go to 14, I do not think that sets off the same chain reaction many are anticipating. The Big 10 made a strong move by getting Nebraska. No other set of teams is a sure thing like the Huskers were. The Big Ten will likely stay at 12 and wait for another shoe to drop down south or simply watch how the SEC operates with 14 before deciding if it is worth doing the same.

Then again, the biggest game of NCAA musical chairs ever may be starting this week.