EXPANSION ANSWERS

September 22, 2010

Although the college football expansion talk has quieted, some questions still remain. This week, I thought I’d answer as many of them as I could.

How will the Pac 10 divide itself? This may sound like a dumb question, but the Pac 10 or 12 or whatever it’s being called at the moment hasn’t decided on anything yet. Some are in favor of a “zipper” model. That would split up all travel partners. For example, Washington, Oregon, Cal, USC, Arizona and Colorado could be on one side, with Washington State, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State and Utah on the other. The issue is the northern schools feel they need games every year against the southern California schools for recruiting purposes. The easier way to do this is to simply go North and South. The North would be the Washington schools, the Oregon schools, Utah and Colorado with Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State in the South. You then guarantee that each northern school will play either UCLA or USC. If an 8-game league schedule is the plan, three northern schools would play the Bruins, the other three would play the Trojans.

Is the Big Ten done? This entire merry go round got started when the Big Ten announced it was considering expansion. Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney has openly admitted they moved up their timeline to wait until this December to make any decisions because the Big 12 was in limbo. Many people believe when this season ends, the Big Ten will look east to add two or even four more teams. In my opinion, the Big Ten will stay at 12. The conference has already said they want to play a 9-game league schedule by 2015. Why? They don’t want to play each other less. If you add just two more teams, even with a nine game conference schedule, you’d go from missing two teams a year, to four. The Big Ten loves its tradition. I don’t see them being able to agree on which teams to invite that are home runs if they were to go any bigger.

Is the Big East safe? If I am right about the Big Ten, then yes. If I’m wrong, kiss the Big East good bye. It doesn’t matter how important basketball is at Syracuse or Pitt, if the Big Ten calls, they’re both gone. The Big East is trying to solidify itself as a football league by adding a team too. By getting a ninth team, they’d play an eight game league schedule. That makes it easier scheduling non-conference games and evens out the number of home games within the league. The problem is that they can’t invite any school for all sports since they are already at 16 teams for basketball. So, they’ve approached Villanova about moving up to the FBS level to join the Big East. If that happens, that would give the Big East nine teams… three of whom were either FCS schools a decade ago or weren’t playing football at all.

Will Notre Dame remain independent? Yes. The only way the Irish will join a conference is if the world of the superconference arrives. If it appears as though there will be four 16-team conferences that throw the BCS rules (or the BCS in general) out the window, Notre Dame will have no choice but to join a league. However, the Big Ten would only get bigger if Notre Dame is one of the new entrants. ND won’t join unless they’re about to be left in the dust. To me it’s one giant game of chicken between the Big Ten and ND, and the Irish will call the Big Ten’s bluff.

Would the SEC raid the ACC? They may take a team from there if necessary, but the ACC would survive. First of all, the SEC is very happy with things as they are. If the Big Ten went to 16 teams, and the Pac 12 was about to do the same, the SEC would begrudgingly get bigger. This summer, when it seemed those moves were imminent, the SEC was talking to Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Some of the ACC schools that were thrown around as SEC targets were not on their radar. The ones talked about the most were Miami, Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech. The problem with those schools is that by inviting any of them, you elevate them to SEC status… thus hurting SEC schools already in that state. Florida, Georgia and South Carolina would be hurt by adding those schools. So don’t expect any of them to go any where. If the SEC goes east at all, I believe West Virginia and Virginia Tech would be its targets.

With the Big 12 hanging by a thread, this isn’t over yet. I’ll have more to say when the next shoe drops.

Games of the Week:

Miami @ Pitt – This game is Thursday night at Heinz Field. Both teams had high aspirations entering the season. Both already have a loss. The Panthers lost their opener at Utah and still have to play at Notre Dame before beginning Big East play. The Canes were embarrassed by Ohio State. A run to the BCS Championship game is gone, but the U is still trying to take that next step on its return to glory. I think Pitt RB Dion Lewis is a stud, but he won’t be enough against that Miami defense. Miami has too much speed for Pitt. I think Jacory Harris has a big night, and the U prevails.

Alabama @ Arkansas – The Hogs are for real. They went between the hedges last week and beat Georgia in the final minute. QB Ryan Mallett has NFL teams drooling at 6-foot-7 and 238 pounds. Bama is loaded with talent, but they have not been tested yet. San Jose State and Duke were over matched. Penn State went to Tuscaloosa with a true freshman QB and moved the ball on the Tide. I think this game will be a shoot out. Bama’s offense better be up for it. I’ll call for the out right upset. Bama may run the table from here on, but I could definitely see a loss in Fayetteville.

Oregon State @ Boise State – This is the home opener for the Broncos. Since they’re landmark win over Virginia Tech isn’t carrying nearly as much weight two week later (thank you very much James Madison), winning this game won’t be enough. Boise needs to lay it on the Beavers the way they did in 2006 when they rolled to a 42-14 victory. Oregon State painted their practice field blue to prepare for the trip to the smurf turf. They could have painted it any color they wanted, it won’t help a lick Saturday when they’re down by three touchdowns. The Broncos will roll.