BCS 101

November 19, 2009

We all know that the top two teams in the BCS Standings on Sunday, December 6^th will play in Pasadena this January for the crystal football. But, how are the other BCS match-ups decided? Well, grab a pen and paper and take notes. School is in session. Here are the ABCs of the BCS.

To better follow along, let’s assume for now that the higher ranked teams win the remainder of their games. In other words, Florida beats Alabama and Texas, Cincy, TCU and Boise State all finish undefeated.

Of the six BCS conferences, five send their champ to a specific BCS bowl, unless they are ranked 1 or 2. We all know by now that the Big Ten and Pac 10 champs meet in the Rose Bowl, so that would mean a January 1 game between Ohio State and Oregon. That leaves the Orange, Fiesta and Sugar. The ACC Champ (Georgia Tech we’ll say) heads to the Orange Bowl. The SEC champ plays in the Sugar Bowl, and the Big 12 champ goes to the Fiesta.

The Big East champ is not tied to any one specific bowl. Why? Mostly because no BCS bowl wants to be stuck with that team every year. It has more to do with the fans than the level of play in that league. There aren’t enough of them. Of the eight Big East competitors for football, two (UConn and South Florida) have only been 1-A or FBS level for a decade or so. Another, Rutgers, has been a non-factor on the national scene. Throw in Cincinnati and Louisville, who if you combined their stadiums would still have a smaller capacity than half of the SEC, and there just isn’t enough interest in these teams to make them attractive bowl selections.

Besides those six league champs, anyone else ranked in the top 14 of the BCS standings can be selected to play in the BCS. If a team from a non-BCS league finishes in the top 12, they receive an automatic bid. However, if more than one non-BCS school cracks the top 12, the highest rated team gets an automatic bid, the rest are simply eligible for selection. In other words, TCU would be in. Boise State would have to be chosen.

If a team from a BCS conference does not win the conference title, but is still ranked in the top 4 in the final BCS standings, they also receive an automatic bid. That will likely happen to the loser of the SEC Championship Game. That brings our qualifiers to eight (Florida, Texas, Bama, Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia Tech, Cincinnati and TCU).

Since the SEC and Big 12 champs would be in the title game, the Sugar and Fiesta Bowls pick replacement teams before any other BCS invites are made. If everything stays the same, Florida would be #1, so the Sugar Bowl would pick first. If they wanted to select a Big 12 team (Oklahoma State for example), they’d need the permission of the Fiesta Bowl since they lost the Big 12 champ. That’s one of the reasons why USC played Illinois in the 2008 Rose Bowl and not Georgia. The Rose Bowl needed the Sugar’s blessing to take an SEC team.

It’s assumed that the Sugar Bowl will once again take the SEC runner-up. Although, there is a small chance they’d pass on having Bama two years in a row.

At that point, the Fiesta Bowl selects a replacement for Texas. Many experts believe that will be Penn State, provided they win Saturday at Michigan State. Why PSU? Why not Iowa? They beat the Lions in Happy Valley. Remember, once the title game is set, what bowls want are teams that will sell tickets, preferably to fans that will be in town for days dropping lots of money. They also want teams that will draw eyes to the TV. Who played a tougher schedule or who beat who is irrelevant. This isn’t March Madness.

Now that the replacement picks have been made, the remaining three slots are filled by each bowl taking turns. First up is the game played closest to the date of the title game. This year that is the Orange. Then, the game 2^nd closest in date to the final. That is the Fiesta. The Sugar Bowl would pick last. With that order in mind, here are the projected choices (and a few other bowls). Any questions?

BCS Title Game – Florida vs. Texas

Rose Bowl – Ohio State vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs. Cincinnati

Fiesta Bowl – Penn State vs. Boise State

Orange Bowl – TCU vs. Georgia Tech

Capital One Bowl – Iowa vs. LSU

Outback Bowl – Wisconsin vs. Mississippi

Cotton Bowl – Georgia vs. Oklahoma

Gator Bowl – Notre Dame vs. Miami

Games of the Week:

Oregon @ Arizona – In case you haven’t noticed, both teams still control their own destiny for the Rose Bowl. The Ducks have scored 40 or more points in four straight games and six times this season. The last time these two met in Tucson, the Ducks lost their #2 ranking, their shot at the national title, and QB Dennis Dixon lost his shot at the Heisman when he blew out his knee. I don’t think the Cats can keep up the pace. Oregon takes another step toward Pasadena.

Cal @ Stanford – Dust off the highlight reel of the ’82 game and cue the band. This year’s version of the Big Game I earmarked in August as a BCS implication game. I’ll admit I thought it would be Cal with BCS dreams. The Cardinal are rolling. The entire Pac 10 and most of college football smiled wide last week as they thumped USC and kicked them while they were down. Jim Harbaugh’s team won the last meeting in Palo Alto. I think he gets another this Saturday.

Penn State @ Michigan State – Trust me when I say this one has the makings of a very entertaining contest. For some reason, since PSU joined the Big Ten, this match-up has consistently been a shootout. Only twice in 16 meetings has the winner failed to score at least 31 points. The Spartans D has been great at times, but they have yet to be a good team. I think the Lions gut one out Saturday for their 10^th win.

Upset Alert – Connecticut @ Notre Dame – With the exception of wins over Nevada and Washington State, the Irish have been taken to the wire or lost the other eight games they’ve played. The Huskies have lost five games by a total of 15 points. After all they have been through, UConn is looking for one crowning victory after the tragic death of their teammate. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for the Irish. Does Jimmy Clausen have more 4^th quarter magic left in him? I think that’s what it will take.