THEN THERE WERE 4

October 21, 2009

The first BCS rankings of the 2009 season were released this week. Even with six Saturdays remaining in the regular season, I believe only four teams have a realistic shot at playing for the crystal football in Pasadena.

We may as well call the SEC Championship Game what it is, a semifinal. Florida and Alabama appear to be on a collision course. The Gators would have to lose at least two of their remaining four league games to not win the East. Bama’s only serious threat is LSU, who would need a win in Tuscaloosa and still defeat Auburn, ArkansasAtlanta on December 5^th will put the league champ into the BCS Final. and Ole Miss to claim the West. Even if both teams stumble in the regular season, a win in

There’s no question that if Texas wins out, they’ll finish in the top 2 and face the SEC Champ. The Longhorns have looked vulnerable at times. They were totally outplayed in the first half by Oklahoma, but too many Sooner mistakes allowed them to stay in the game. Texas will play four road games yet this year plus the Big 12 title game at a neutral site. Should Mack Brown’s team lose once but still claim the league title, the door will swing open for USC.

I know the Trojans are currently seventh in the BCS. However, if they win out, they will easily leap past Iowa, Cincinnati and Boise State. Throw in a Texas loss and they finally face the SEC Champ to end the year. An 11-1 USC team with road wins over Ohio State, Cal, Notre Dame and Oregon may even have a more impressive resume than a one-loss SEC Champ.

I realize there are four other unbeaten teams in the top ten. Boise State and TCU will only lose points the rest of the year thanks to their remaining schedule. Neither team will get any consideration for the title game even if they stay perfect and everyone else falters. Boise State struggled with Tulsa, a team Oklahoma beat 38-0 with its back-up QB.

Cincinnati is the new kid to the dance. They are making an effort to play a tough non-league schedule, but they have not beaten anyone of note. Oklahoma ran them out of Norman last year, and Va Tech handled them in the Orange Bowl. Simply winning the Big East, a league some believe to be inferior to the Mountain West, won’t bump out a one-loss Florida, Alabama, Texas or USC.

That brings us to Iowa. After all the embarrassment the Big Ten has had over the last three years in the BCS, I don’t believe a boring Iowa team that struggled with Northern Iowa and Arkansas State will be ushered into Pasadena. Even at 12-0, they will be idle for two weeks while other teams have a chance to reclaim one of the top two spots.

Miami has an outside shot. They have the name and reputation to garner enough respect in the polls. The problem is they are already down at #10. Plus, their wins over FSU and Oklahoma are looking less impressive by the week.

Mark it down. The SEC Champ will play Texas or USC for the crown. The other contenders just don’t have the cache to jump them, even if they all lose.

Games of the Week:

Penn State @ Michigan – The Wolverines turned some heads with a 4-0 start. However, after two conference losses, their list of victims seems less impressive. Tate Forcier is going to be a headache for PSU and the rest of the Big Ten for the next few years. Once Michigan starts to play defense the way Michigan teams usually do, Rich Rod will find himself in sunny California. PSU’s season could go either way right now. Win here and the league crown is within reach. Lose in Ann Arbor for the sixth straight time, and a four-loss season is a distinct possibilty. Losing Stephfon Green will hurt, but I believe PSU’s defense gets the Big House monkey off their back.

Oregon State @ USC – The Beavers have won two of the last three meetings with the Trojans. Last year’s game followed the showdown with Ohio State. This year, Washington took advantage of a USC letdown. This year, Pete Carroll’s team is coming off a tough win in South Bend and has a trip to Oregon looming next week. Jacquizz Rodgers gave USC fits last year. The Beavers will be a handful, but I expect the Trojans to survive… for now.

TCU @ BYU – If the Horned Frogs want to be in the BCS, they have no margin for error. Should they win out, they will likely jump Boise State and either head to the Fiesta or Orange Bowl. BYU and QB Max Hall saw their BCS dreams go up in smoke with their loss to FSU. Last year, it was TCU who crushed the Cougars BCS dreams. I said in the preseason that Boise State would crash the BCS party because the MWC teams would beat up on each other. Expect the Cougars to clear the way for the Broncos with a win Saturday night in Provo.

Upset Alert – Boston College @ Notre Dame – The Irish put up a great fight last week and went down swinging against USC. That game was supposed to announce to the nation that ND was back among the elite. When you put so much emphasis on a regular season game, win or lose, the next game becomes even tougher. Just think back to the 1993 season. ND edges FSU in the battle for #1 then falls at home to BC seven days later. Now, BC has won six straight in this series. If Notre Dame isn’t ready to go from the opening kickoff, they’ll be playing from behind all day.